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Portugal Election Paths - 1975 Until 2022 Scenarios and Lore (Prologues can be a possibility, like Early Democracy after Humberto Delgado Presidential Victory).


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I will explore many possibilities, I created the basis for doing many Portugal scenarios.

First future scenario for PMI will be 1975 realistic Constitutional Scenario.


After many gateways of history open... That you need to follow.
If PS wins, you need to play 1976 official scenario, that follows this election.

PS 1975 -> 1976?

Mário Soares 1975b (cropped).jpg


If PSD wins in 1975,
Actual constitution will not be approved (and Road to Socialism and end of classes phrases in Constitution).

Francisco Sá Carneiro (crop).jpg

After many popular angryness, PCP made a state coup that was succesful at 25 November of 1975.


Alvaro Cunhal was elected by central commitee as Supreme Leader in 1 December of 1975, supported by USSR. Portugal followed a hardline communist regime, similar to nations like in the East Europe, without any form of democracy until Perestroika. In 1990 we had a counter-coup of state and Cunhal was jailed.

Álvaro Cunhal: a mais importante biografia política sobre o século XX  português | Literatura | PÚBLICO

1992 marks the year that we had 100% democratic elections again. Cavaco Silva the centre-left candidate, after PS/PSD union will run vs Paulo Portas, the super young and charismatic centre right candidate of the new PP party, ahead of polls, that defends banning communism symbols. Cavaco Silva defends Public investments and building good highways that connect Portugal with Europe, defends  Portugal to enter EU too. Portas assumes a more eurosceptic position. Who will win? Play the 1992 hypotethical elections. that will choose the leader for the Portuguese Presidentialist Fourth Republic that has mandates of 5 years.

PSD -> CDU -> ?


If Cavaco Silva wins in 1992, Portugal will enter EU in 01/01/1994, and will have 2 years of the strongest economical growth ever surpassing 60/70s years, thanks to EU funds. growing 12% in 1994 and 9% in 1995, 1996 and 1997.

Cavaco Silva. O primeiro-ministro que nenhum outro conseguiu imitar –  Observador

Portas will re-run in 1997 with a harder job, this time he is behind election polls. the big question for political analyst pundits is knowing if Cavaco will win in first or second round.

1997 Scenario PSD -> CDU -> PSD - > ?

Paulo Portas – Parte II – RTP Arquivos
If Portas wins 1992 elections, he will win popularity with easy economical growth and will provoke early elections, trying absolute majority. Will he win with more than 50% Votes?
You will discover that in 13 September 1993 Elections (My birthday). He will run vs Santana Lopes the successor of Cavaco in PPD-PS, after he lost 1992 elections.

Conferência de imprensa de Santana Lopes – RTP Arquivos

1993 Scenario PSD -> CDU -> CDS -> ?

Returning to 1975, If Cunhal wins 1975 elections, he will not have absolute majority of seats and will need a left coalition with Mario Soares, Soares accepts, but only if Cunhal promises to keep democracy with a referendum. Cunhal accepts doing a referendum for making Portuguese choose between a Popular Democracy and a Western Democracy, that will be heavily rigged probably (prepare to have 5 seats already won by popular Democracy of a possible total of 27). So you will have a referendum in 1976 for determining if Portugal will be the new Cuba or a democracy. Western Democracy is ahead of polls by a very slim margin, 52% vs 46%.

1975 PCP -> Referendum -> ?

If Popular Democracy Portugal will do a slow transition for a Cuban type regime, and Soares and all opposition will be jailed between 1977 and 1978.
A coup of state happens in 1988, and Cunhal is killed with a bomb. Soares is acclaimed as the biggest Figure of Democracy!
Will participate in 1989 elections. And if favoured to win elections without any type of opposition, except Francisco Lupas Pires. The difference in polls is giant, 82% vs 13% of Francisco Lucas Pires.

1975 PCP -> Referendum -> 1989 Elections ?

Francisco Lucas Pires – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre
If Popular Democracy loses in 1975 referendum, Soares will do a very weak unpopular coaliton with a frail Central Bloc, that didnt won vs Cunhal in 1975 election in Portuguese public opinion. That will last until early 1978, when PSD breaks with the coalition. PS will suffer a Pasokification and will be with 14% in 1978 polls. In 1978 elections Sa Carneiro and Alvaro Cunhal are the biggest contenders. Sa Carneiro with 32% and Cunhal with 24%. Freitas do Amaral with 17% is stronger than Soares. Interesting and disputed election.

1975 PCP -> Referendum -> 1978 Elections ?

If Sa Carneiro wins, he will finish his mandate until 1982 forming a coalition with CDS, anyway, with a super strong left, and weak anemic stagnant 1% economical growth, PSD will have a very hard task in these elections, knowing this, forms AD (Alianca Democratica with CDS also), this time with weak 29%. As an answer MDP/CDE and UDP and other small left parties unite, forming Unidade Popular do Povo Trabalhador (UPPT), with Otelo Saraiva de Carvalho as frontrunner, with 10% in polls. PCP continues strong, but not huge, with 27% in polls, not capitalizing much because UPPT and PS. Who Will Win?

Vota Otelo à presidência GDUP 1976 Henrique Matos.jpg

PS recovers to 22% now with Salgado Zenha as leader, he is more leftist than Soares.

1975 PCP -> Referendum -> 1978 Elections PSD -> 1982?

Left will form majority, the question is who will be in first, more moderate PS, or more radical PCP with a UPPT that can do the difference. UPPT and PCP are clear, can do a coalition with PS, but never together (UPPT + PCP will be impossible).

Surprisingly an young maoist called Durao Barroso is elected by Lisbon District with the support of PCTP/MRPP a student popular party but with small presence in other cities where Universities dont exist.

arnaldo matos3

Durão Barroso: Do MRPP à Goldman Sachs - Portugal - SÁBADO

If PS wins in 1982 with UPPT, Otelo turns the Defense Minister. The problem is that this government is an economical disaster with hardcore Collectivist and agrarian reforms, has a disastrous -3% growth in 1983 and ends asking for IMF help. UPPT coalition ends in internal struggles. PCP capitalizes, the same for Right.


Right new candidate in early 1984 elections is the right wing Carlos Mota Pinto he will compete with and weak Mario Soares.

Carlos Mota Pinto is the favorite with 35% in polls, Mario Soares has only 23%, and APU the new Communist alliance with some ex-UPPT small parties has 21% in polls. PRD is created with the support of President Ramalho Eanes, is a centre party between PS and PSD.
Carlos Alberto da Mota Pinto – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre

Returning to 1976 after PS victory in 1975,

If PS wins 1976, we will have Soares government and a 1979 election that will end with Sa Carneiro AD (PSD+CDS) victory.


If PCP wins in 1976, reactionary forces, more organized after falled Leftist 25 November coup attempt, will try a Revolution in 1977 that succeeds, Marcello Caetano returns to Portugal and turns the new President without any form of direct election vote. All parties are dissolved and banned with communism and anarchy agenda theory, except PSD that turns Ala Liberal, CDS that turns the Christian Democracy Party and PPM that continues to be  the party that defends the return of Monarchy. PDC surges, and is the favorite party of Caetano.
By Caetano decision rigged elections can continue to happen but only if these forces conccur. The new constitution says that different governments can be elected if respect  Caetano Presidential position until his death.

Ficheiro:Marcello caetano.jpg – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre

So we will have rigged 1979 election between Spinola, a famous conservative general that was briefly President in 1974 after Carnage Revolution  and Jose Hermano Saraiva an Estado Novo intellectual Education minister and history teacher.

1975 PS -> 1976 PS -> 1977 Estado Novo Coup of state -> 1979 Elections.

GENERAL ANTÓNIO SPÍNOLA – Associação 25 de Abril
José Hermano Saraiva – RTP Arquivos

Caetano dies suddenly in 4 December of 1980, in his testament he says that Portugal needs a referendum to choose between Democracy and Monarchy. The New Restored Portugal Republic (Republica Nova Portuguesa) ends in a calm way, with people tired of Authoritarian regimes.
The last will of Marcello isnt respected in Spinola won 1979 elections, he will do immediately a presidential regime, where he is the main candidate vs Vasco Lourenco that is supported by all left. The Socialist Democratic  Party (PDS) is this big coalition that put Social Democrats, Leninists, Maoists, Socialists, Trotskysts and other types of left together.
Declarações do Brigadeiro Vasco Lourenço – RTP Arquivos

Anyway Monarchy Referendum is respected if Jose Hermano Saraiva wins.
The polls give 34% of Monarchy and 57% Republic.  What will be the future Portuguese system?

1975 PS -> 1976 PCP -> 1977 Coup and Caetano until 1980 death -> 1981 Monarchy Referendum.

If Monarchy wins 1981 Referendum, Duarte of Braganca turns the new King.

Monárquicos querem candidatura de Dom Duarte Pio – RTP Arquivos

If Loses, A new presidential election will happen in late 1981 between moderate centrist General Ramalho Eanes and left wing Comrade Vasco Goncalves.

António Ramalho Eanes – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre
Vasco Gonçalves – Wikipédia, a enciclopédia livre

Will be very close, but Ramalho Eanes if the favorite with 51% vs 42% in a second round.

Edited by Entrecampos
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