Jump to content
The Political Lounge

Way-too-early 2022 Midterm Poll

vcczar

By vcczar
in Political Forum

 Share

Way-too-early 2022 Midterm Poll  

18 members have voted

  1. 1. Of potentially competitive governor races, which incumbent party loses?

    • Democrats lose WI as Gov. Tony Evers loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      4
    • Republicans lose VT as Gov. Phil Scott either declines to run for reelection or loses to a yet-to-be-declared Democrat
      7
    • Republicans lose TX as Gov. Greg Abbott loses to an unknown Democrat, likely a Castro brother or O'Rourke
      0
    • Republicans lose SC as Gov. Henry McMaster loses to former Democratic US Rep. Joe Cunningham
      3
    • Democrats lose PA as the incumbent is term-limited and both candidates will likely be relatively unknown.
      2
    • Republicans lose OH as Gov. Mike DeWine loses, likely to Nan Whaley, Democratic Mayor of Dayton
      0
    • Democrats lose NY as Gov. Andrew Cuomo loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      2
    • Republicans lose NH as Gov. Chris Sununu either declines to run for reelection or loses to a yet-to-be-declared Democrat
      10
    • Democrats lose NV as Gov. Steve Sisolak loses, likely in a rematch to former Gov nominee Adam Laxalt
      1
    • Democrats lose MN as Gov. Tim Waltz loses, likely to MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell
      2
    • Democrats lose MI as Gov. Gretchen Whitmer loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      4
    • Republicans lose MA as Gov. Charlie Baker either declines to run for reelection or loses to a yet-to-be-declared Democrat
      5
    • Republicans lose MD as the incumbent is term-limited and the nominees are likely to be both relatively unknown
      15
    • Democrats lose ME as Gov. Janet Mills loses to former Gov Paul LePage
      3
    • Democrats lose KS as Gov. Laura Kelly loses to former Gov Jeff Colyer
      14
    • Republicans lose IA as Gov. Kim Reynolds loses to a yet-to-be-declared Democrat
      2
    • Republicans lose GA as Gov. Brian Kemp loses to a Democrat, likely Stacey Abrams
      9
    • Republican lose FL as Gov. Ron DeSantis loses to former Gov (and current US Rep) Charlie Crist
      1
    • Republicans lose AZ as the incumbent is term-limited and the nominees are likely to be relatively unknown unless US Rep Paul Gosar runs.
      7
    • All the incumbent parties will hold their state governorships
      0

  2. 2. Of potentially competitive US Senator races, which incumbent party loses?

    • Democrats lose AZ as Sen. Mark Kelly loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      2
    • Democrats lose CO as Sen. Michael Bennet loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      0
    • Republicans lose FL as Sen. Marco Rubio loses to a Democrat, possibly former US Rep Alan Grayson
      0
    • Democrats lose GA as Sen. Raphael Warnock loses to a Republican, possibly former NFL player Herschel Walker
      10
    • Republicans lose IA as the incumbent retired and the nominees are likely to be state Sen Jim Carlin (GOP) and fmr Admiral Michael T Franken (DEM), who failed in a 2020 bid
      2
    • Republicans lose LA as Sen. John Kennedy loses to a Democrat, possibly incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards
      3
    • Democrats lose NV as Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      2
    • Democrats lose NH as Sen. Maggie Hassan loses to a yet-to-be-declared Republican
      7
    • Republicans lose NC as the incumbent is retiring and the nominees are likely to be former Gov. Pat McCrory (GOP) and one of a few relatively-known NC Dems
      7
    • Republicans lose OH as the incumbent is retiring and the nominees are likely to be Josh Mandel (GOP) and US Rep Tim Ryan (Democrat)
      8
    • Republicans lose PA as the incumbent is retiring and the nominees are likely to be relatively unknown
      14
    • Republicans lose WI as the Sen. Ron Johnson retires or loses to a yet-to-be-declared Democrat
      7
    • All the incumbent parties keep their Senate seats
      1

  3. 3. Who wins the US House?

    • GOP takes the US House by gaining 5 more US Reps.
      12
    • Democrats keep the US House by either preventing a GOP gain of 5 US Rep or by making gains of their own.
      6

  4. 4. Will this be a wave election?

    • Yes, a Red Wave
      1
    • Yes, a Blue Wave
      0
    • No, just a typical midterm in which the party that controls the presidency loses some support in Congress
      12
    • No, but an atypical election in which the party that controls the presidency mostly holds or gains ground in Congress
      5

Recommended Posts

vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted

I think the map favors Democrats, and I think the post-Covid economy is going to look so good that Democrats have an atypical midterm election. Let me make it clear that I think just about any president--regardless of party--would benefit from a post-Covid economy. I'm not suggesting that Biden is FDR or even Obama. 

Here's my thoughts: 

  • Larry Hogan can't run. The state is so Blue that Dems take MD Governorship.
  • Hyper-partisanship causes Laura Kelly to lose Gov of KS to Colyer, who is less controversial than Kobach. 
  • Brian Kemp narrowly won a controversial election in Georgia vs Stacey Abrams last time. This time, she's got more power, influence, and Brian Kemp has been routinely hammered by Trump and his own party. Considering Warnock will be on the down ballot, I think Abrams and Warnock help each other. Georgia gets Bluer. 
  • I'm less confident about Democrats taking AZ, but if both nominees are unknown, I think Mark Kelly being on the Senate ballot will help whoever the Democratic Gov will be. 
  • I put Republican holding FL Gov for now. I think Ron DeSantis wins reelection vs. Charlie Crist only if Democrats do nominate Alan Grayson (I like him, but he's out of touch with Florida). If they run a more moderate, influential Florida Dem, then DeSantis could possibly lose against Crist. A loss to Crist would knock DeSantis out of the 2024 GOP nomination for president. 
  • I still have Republicans holding LA for now, but conservative Democrat John Bel Edwards would make it close. I also think the IA and WI races will be close, but Republicans hold those. 
  • I don't think McCrory is popular enough in the somewhat purple state of NC. In addition, there's actually a lot of attractive options for Democrats in these state. There's like three nominees I could see winning. Blue pickup.
  • I think Tim Ryan will win the hearts of Ohioans over Josh Mandel. I don't think any other Democrat could win this race, for the record. It will be close.
  • PA race is somewhat a toss up, but I expect Democrats in the cities to be more motivated than the rural areas, considering rural PA is the kind of crowd that think elections are rigged, which will keep many of them at home. PA tends to be bluer in the Federal level than state level.
  • I think the GOP might make some gains in US Reps, but I think it will be fewer than 5 seats as a net gain.
  • The post-Covid recovery and the euphoria of finally being free of pandemic and shutdowns will likely result in people not seeking too much change and possibly more receptive to incumbents and Democrats. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dobs

Dobs

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, vcczar said:
  • I put Republican holding FL Gov for now. I think Ron DeSantis wins reelection vs. Charlie Crist only if Democrats do nominate Alan Grayson (I like him, but he's out of touch with Florida). If they run a more moderate, influential Florida Dem, then DeSantis could possibly lose against Crist. A loss to Crist would knock DeSantis out of the 2024 GOP nomination for president. 

I thnk DeSantis beats Crist comfortably and Grayson soundly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ConservativeElector2

ConservativeElector2

Posted
Posted

Great poll. 

Some comments. Gubernatorial races first

TX: I guess the best hope for the anti-Abbott faction and certainly the most interesting nominee would be Matthew McConaughey.

PA: it's interesting that you expect PA's candidates to be little known. I had Lamb, Shapiro and Barletta on my notes. They aren't in the hotly contested Senate race already I think. 

NY: I expect nearly everyone to beat Cuomo or at least I'd be very surprised if Cuomo proved to be unbeatable by now. Republican's hope must be that he remains in office and is actually the Democratic nominee. That's a sad commentary in and of itself.

NH: I expect and part of me also hopes for Sununu to run for Senate. However, that would make the gubernatorial race hotly contested I guess. I hope for Kelly Ayotte to run for governor, if Sununu chooses the Senate.

NV: Not always is incumbency a bonus, I expect that to be the case with Governor Sisolak.

MN: I guess Waltz can be beaten easily, but with Lindell there would be difficulty. I hope for another comeback of Governor Pawlenty but I guess it won't happen.

MI: Same here, if Republicans get a decent nominee, it should be easy to win in the state. With a Michigander Lindell there could be unnecessary trouble. I hope for John James taking on Whitmer as I still see him as the best option for MI Republicans.

MA: I read Governor Baker's honeymoon in MA is pretty much over by now. I don't know how much truth was in this article, but it would be major blow for my mindset to not have Baker as Governor of MA anymore.

MD: The nominees are only relatively unknown, if there won't be the epic match-up of Michael Steele vs. Tom Perez. Also a John Delaney  campaign could be very interesting I think.

KS: Former Gov Jeff Colyer winning against Governor Kelly is something I'd consider certain.

GA: With Vernon Jones in the race the primaries will already be interesting. Today Bee Nguyen has announced to compete for Georgia Secretary of State, so we can be certain that she won't be running for Governor.

FL: Crist in the race adds massive flavor, but the real question will be whether the former Republican will have the full backing of the FL Democratic Party.

AZ: I think Brnovich could be the Republican's best choice.

Senate comments:

GA: Sometimes I doubt that an NFL player will be the kind of politician I like. I hope for Chief Justice Melton to run and believe vicory is certain for him. I think Warnock could have an easier path with Walker, as more people could be wary of an Athlete turned politician.

IA: I'd be sad if Grassley retires, otherwise he deserved a good retirement. Anyway I hope for his grandson to succeed him in that seat. 

NH: I am rooting for Sununu to join the race.

NC: One of the best races in this cycle. Former Governor McCrory making a comeback is very interesting; on the Democrat's side we have former North Carolina Chief Justice Cheri Beasley running. Part of me hopes Justice Anita Earls, NASA astronaut (!) Joan Higginbotham and former Transportation Secy Anthony Foxx would join the primary as well. We are all allowed to dream.

WI: Ron Johnson was THE upset victory in 2016. I am eager to find out whether he can replicate that or he chooses to honor his pledge. I hope he's running, I wouldn't favor  congressional term-limits anyway. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Dayton resident here.  I've worked with Mayor Nan in both a professional and personal capacity.  But...and speaking as a Democrat here...I'll be SHOCKED if she wins her party's nomination, much less the actual governor race.  

I'm just curious, why's that? I listed her because she's the only Democrat of any note that's running.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
11 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

NY: I expect nearly everyone to beat Cuomo or at least I'd be very surprised if Cuomo proved to be unbeatable by now. Republican's hope must be that he remains in office and is actually the Democratic nominee. That's a sad commentary in and of itself.

You'll be surprised how easily Cuomo could keep winning despite scandals. He pretty much rode out a bunch of scandals. NY politics has always been corrupt, and he's in control of the gears. I don't think any interparty challenge would do any good---except maybe an Andrew Yang run as he's the only NYer with potential grassroots potential. All the other grassroots Dems are legislative and have no interest in being governor. The Republican nominee would have to be a Charlie Baker type but Andrew Cuomo has been in control for so long that Republicans can't even get name recognition. 

Andrew Cuomo isn't as scandalous as Roy Moore and NY is a Mega Blue state. If Cuomo is the nominee, it's almost certain he wins barring maybe a likable Independent Republican celebrity.  Sex scandals have become so numerous and our times so partisan that they're sadly minor scandals now. I think proof of Trump sleeping with Ivanka and being the father of her children could emerge and Trump would still be the 2024 GOP nominee, for instance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dobs

Dobs

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, vcczar said:

You'll be surprised how easily Cuomo could keep winning despite scandals. He pretty much rode out a bunch of scandals. NY politics has always been corrupt, and he's in control of the gears. I don't think any interparty challenge would do any good---except maybe an Andrew Yang run as he's the only NYer with potential grassroots potential. All the other grassroots Dems are legislative and have no interest in being governor. The Republican nominee would have to be a Charlie Baker type but Andrew Cuomo has been in control for so long that Republicans can't even get name recognition. 

Andrew Cuomo isn't as scandalous as Roy Moore and NY is a Mega Blue state. If Cuomo is the nominee, it's almost certain he wins barring maybe a likable Independent Republican celebrity.  Sex scandals have become so numerous and our times so partisan that they're sadly minor scandals now. I think proof of Trump sleeping with Ivanka and being the father of her children could emerge and Trump would still be the 2024 GOP nominee, for instance.

1) Letitia James

2) It's not just a sex scandal, it's also the grandma-killer scandal.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hestia

Hestia

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Dobs said:

1) Letitia James

2) It's not just a sex scandal, it's also the grandma-killer scandal.

Agreed on both 😛 I think James could potentially dethrone him if the inquiry especially goes bad for Cuomo.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
MrPotatoTed

MrPotatoTed

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm just curious, why's that? I listed her because she's the only Democrat of any note that's running.

Only one so far.  It's early.

She ran for the Governor nomination last time and made so little impact that REPORTERS forgot when she declared again this time.  She dropped out long before the primary even took place last time.  She hasn't done anything particularly amazing during her time here -- I've never met anyone who said "Gosh, I wish I lived in Dayton."  Haha.  

She tends to get credit for her "response" to the mass shooting and ton of tornadoes we had here a couple years ago.  But A) those have largely been forgotten by anyone who didn't directly experience them, and B) her "response" was of course AFTER the fact for both incidences, so it's not like she helped either situation not be so bad -- the dead people still died, the destroyed homes were still destroyed.  

She's a nice person, I don't dislike her on either a professional or personal level.  But I'm a (sometimes) nice person too, and nobody has suggested I should run for Governor.  She doesn't have what it takes to compete or lead.

Edited by MrPotatoTed
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
48 minutes ago, Dobs said:

1) Letitia James

2) It's not just a sex scandal, it's also the grandma-killer scandal.

I still don't think that's enough to topple Cuomo. They need someone bigger than George Pataki or Elise Stefanik, for instance. Cuomo is basically going to get 50.1% of the vote without batting an eye unless there's a strong left-wing 3rd party splitting the vote. I'm not saying it's impossible for the GOP to win, I just think it needs to be someone with 1) high integrity, 2) likable, 3) very moderate--i.e. not partisan or Trumpian, 4) smart, 5) either has name recognition or can generate it quickly. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dobs

Dobs

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I still don't think that's enough to topple Cuomo. They need someone bigger than George Pataki or Elise Stefanik, for instance. Cuomo is basically going to get 50.1% of the vote without batting an eye unless there's a strong left-wing 3rd party splitting the vote. I'm not saying it's impossible for the GOP to win, I just think it needs to be someone with 1) high integrity, 2) likable, 3) very moderate--i.e. not partisan or Trumpian, 4) smart, 5) either has name recognition or can generate it quickly. 

That’s fine and I don’t necessarily agree. But again I’d direct you to point 1) Letitia James 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
12 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

Basically a real Will Conway.

Yeah, but one that hasn't major emotional issues. I really think the GOP has to go the celebrity route because Democrats have stifled any Republicans from holding major offices to showcase their political skill and administrative abilities for over a decade. Many of the GOP that remain in offices are more local than in tune with NY state-wide. I think Elise Stefanik and George Pataki are the kind that might have the chance but Pataki is old and I don't think Stefanik is a strong enough presence to beat Cuomo. I think Michael Bloomberg running as a Republican would have a slightly better chance than at least Pataki and possibly Stefanik as well. I think Stefanik hurt herself by becoming more Trump friendly. A Trump ally can't win NY. There might be some CEO in NYC that could surprise, but they have to have good relations with their NYC workers or the city will be motivated to get behind Cuomo, even if they don't like him. 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
pilight

pilight

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

GA: Sometimes I doubt that an NFL player will be the kind of politician I like. I hope for Chief Justice Melton to run and believe victory is certain for him. I think Warnock could have an easier path with Walker, as more people could be wary of an Athlete turned politician.

Walker hasn't lived in Georgia for many years, which will add to the skepticism of him.  He also has a reputation as a dumb jock, and the stories about his basket weaving class and the like at UGA will undoubtedly resurface if he runs.

I expect Melton to run and win.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
42 minutes ago, pilight said:

Walker hasn't lived in Georgia for many years, which will add to the skepticism of him.  He also has a reputation as a dumb jock, and the stories about his basket weaving class and the like at UGA will undoubtedly resurface if he runs.

I expect Melton to run and win.

I think his multiple personality disorder will bother more people than a basket weaving class.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, pilight said:

Walker hasn't lived in Georgia for many years, which will add to the skepticism of him.  He also has a reputation as a dumb jock, and the stories about his basket weaving class and the like at UGA will undoubtedly resurface if he runs.

I expect Melton to run and win.

 

46 minutes ago, Patine said:

Basket case? 😛

Sorry, couldn't resist...

Personally, I like Herschel Walker. He might be the only likable open Trump supporter with any name recognition. He was the running back for my Dallas Cowboys when I started watching football as a child. It was him and Tony Dorsett sharing the backfield. Danny White was QB--my all time favorite, mainly because he's the first QB I remember and his number was 11 and my birthday is March 11. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Timur

Timur

Posted
Posted

Some things

1.Phil Scott seems to be extremely popular. The fact that he won three gubernatorial elections in Vermont as a Republican shows that he can win again.

2.Greg Abbott will probably win again, unless it is against Matthew McConaughy.

3.Andrew Cuomo is likely to win again. NY is one of those states which will vote Democrat no matter what. Kinda like how a man who bodyslammed a journalist won Montana.

4.NH depends on whether Sununu will run.

5.Charlie Baker is probably one of USA's most popular governors. The Democrats need to nominate a legend if they want to beat him.

6.Paul Gosar running? I'm calling it for the Democrats.

7.Rubio defeated Grayson. He'll likely do it again.

8.If the Republicans in GA choose Herschel Walker, they'll probably win. If they choose Kelly Loeffler again, they probably lose.

9.Lara Trump is thinking about running for North Carolina's Senate Election

10.I'm actually surprised that a man who praised the alt-right is winning Ohio. Personally, I'm surprised that a Jewish man is defending a member of the alt-right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...