Thoughts on Ukraine

[Hestia]

 

[Hestia]

With the recognition of independence, the Minsk agreements and Normandy Format (Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany) are essentially dead. This is a red line for Ukraine that has been passed. Now we see to the extent Russia is going to escalate against Ukraine. 

[Hestia]

Putin is currently addressing Russia.

[Hestia]

 

He is clearly rejecting the idea of Ukraine as a nation in and of itself. 

[Hestia]

Putin clearly does not agree with the idea of Ukraine as a nation all its own - repeatedly saying it is made by Lenin/Stalin/Khruschev etc. That is obviously not true - Ukraine's history goes back as far as Russia's, if not farther. Reports saying Ukraine is imposing martial law. 

[Hestia]

 

[Hestia]

 

All post-Soviet states have a right to be worried tonight.

[jvikings1]

10 minutes ago, Hestia said:

 

All post-Soviet states have a right to be worried tonight.

It has been no secret (for some time now) that Putin has a strong desire to bring former Soviet territories back into the Russian sphere of influence. It would be incompetence for the leaders of surrounding countries to not be prepared for potential Russian influence/aggression.

[Hestia]

Just now, jvikings1 said:

It has been no secret (for some time now) that Putin has a strong desire to bring former Soviet territories back into the Russian sphere of influence. It would be incompetence for the leaders of surrounding countries to not be prepared for potential Russian influence/aggression.

Agreed. It's just so much more prescient now - especially for countries like Georgia and Moldova who are unfriendly to Russian regimes and soon-to-be within Moscow's sights. 

[Hestia]

Putin is pulling out all the stops with his speech. Completely unhinged. 

[jvikings1]

11 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Agreed. It's just so much more prescient now - especially for countries like Georgia and Moldova who are unfriendly to Russian regimes and soon-to-be within Moscow's sights. 

I wonder if this might provide momentum for the idea of unifying Moldova and Romania. Doing so would bring it into NATO protection and EU membership.

[Hestia]

11 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

I wonder if this might provide momentum for the idea of unifying Moldova and Romania. Doing so would bring it into NATO protection and EU membership.

I wondered the same!

[mark2]

1 hour ago, Hestia said:

Putin clearly does not agree with the idea of Ukraine as a nation all its own - repeatedly saying it is made by Lenin/Stalin/Khruschev etc. That is obviously not true - Ukraine's history goes back as far as Russia's, if not farther. Reports saying Ukraine is imposing martial law. 

i wonder how a world leader doesn't know about Ukraine's history as much as your average American history teacher

[Dobs]

16 minutes ago, Patine said:

You're certainty this cannot be true, at all, and must be a lie - seemingly because it's RUSSIA making this claim prior to such an action, and conflating it automatically to this obviously ridiculous ideal (the dangerous, automatic conflations I often warn about):

Understand, I am NOT claiming to know either way, but you seem certain it CAN'T possibly be true, and can ONLY a propaganda lie by Russia, because it's Russia (an assumption that kind of buys into Western propaganda thinking), when their were indeed many nasty, far-right-wing, ultra-nationalist militias not taking direct orders from any military command, directly, fighting for BOTH SIDES in 2014, and ones tied to Ukrainian nationalists, like those sympathetic to, and probably organized by, extremist parties like Svoboda, the UNO, Right Sector, Patriots of Ukraine, Tryzub, Sich, and other downright frightening, hate-filled, militant groups of people, were of the mindset, at the time, to potentially fill unmarked graves with Russophile civilians. I don't know the truth, NEITHER DO YOU. I'm just cautioning your certainty it MUST be a lie, JUST BECAUSE IT'S RUSSIA saying it.

"There is far more danger, and far more unnecessary loss of life, in the fog of war than in the battles of war,"

-Robert McNamara (and doesn't HE know it)

Were not saying it’s a lie because Russia is saying it. It’s a lie because it’s not true. It just so happens that Putin likes to say things that are not true because he is manufacturing a casus belli for Russian expansionism.

Please stop trying to both sides this thing, it’s unnerving.

[Hestia]

23 minutes ago, Patine said:

You're certainty this cannot be true, at all, and must be a lie - seemingly because it's RUSSIA making this claim prior to such an action, and conflating it automatically to this obviously ridiculous ideal (the dangerous, automatic conflations I often warn about):

5 hours ago, Hestia said:

You're expecting Ukraine to disprove something that they say is not true. That is LITERALLY impossible. If they say they didn't do it, there's obviously no evidence that they didn't, because they didn't do it. The impetus, the burden of proof is always on the alleging party. I am saying it's not true because no evidence has been shown to say it is true. 

 

24 minutes ago, Patine said:

Understand, I am NOT claiming to know either way, but you seem certain it CAN'T possibly be true, and can ONLY a propaganda lie by Russia, because it's Russia (an assumption that kind of buys into Western propaganda thinking), when their were indeed many nasty, far-right-wing, ultra-nationalist militias not taking direct orders from any military command, directly, fighting for BOTH SIDES in 2014, and ones tied to Ukrainian nationalists, like those sympathetic to, and probably organized by, extremist parties like Svoboda, the UNO, Right Sector, Patriots of Ukraine, Tryzub, Sich, and other downright frightening, hate-filled, militant groups of people, were of the mindset, at the time, to potentially fill unmarked graves with Russophile civilians. I don't know the truth, NEITHER DO YOU. I'm just cautioning your certainty it MUST be a lie, JUST BECAUSE IT'S RUSSIA saying it.

"There is far more danger, and far more unnecessary loss of life, in the fog of war than in the battles of war,"

-Robert McNamara (and doesn't HE know it)

Let's look at the facts here, then shall we? 

Ukrainian far-right parties only garnered 3% of the vote in Ukraine's last election. To claim that they persist deeply inside the Ukrainian state is an extreme level of fake news. You are insisting on that they may have done it, when there IS NO PROOF. 

Let's look at the facts here

1) Russia said they would pull out of Belarus. They did not. They lied.

2) Russia said they were pulling troops away from Ukraine. They did not. They lied.

3) Russia said they would not recognize the breakaway regions. They did. They lied.

4) Russia claimed Ukrainians invaded the Rostov region today. Images show they were Russian vehicles. They lied. 

5) Today Russia claimed Ukraine was not a state itself.

Who is doing the lying here? It's all Russia. This is not just about possibilities here - which is all you are focusing on. It's about odds as well. The party that has done quite a bit of lying is more likely to keep lying than the party that has not.

You can keep eating the stinking, lying sandwich that the Kremlin is putting out there, but don't expect me to eat the shit that comes out the end. You're a complicit, compulsive appeaser that is a worthy example of why Russia feels like they can do whatever they want to Ukraine in the first place. You are condemning plenty of innocents in pursuit of 'both sides are bad'. Please re-evaluate your position and look at more facts rather than 'US and NATO are just as bad as Russia'. You're embarrassing yourself.

[Hestia]

Speech was viewed (rightly) very seriously in Ukraine. Big shift in how they're reacting.

[mark2]

6 minutes ago, Patine said:

1+1 does not equal 3 - but if you only followed Big Brother's math texts, and didn't DARE to count it on your fingers, you wouldn't know that.

Did this man really just type that out after saying "well guys, Putin may not have provided any evidence of his claim, but he could be correct! stop being certain! NATO bad! believe Putin!" in reply to Hestia posting that they claimed that Ukraine was a LITERAL MAJOR NUCLEAR POWER? Come on man.

[Dobs]

8 minutes ago, Patine said:

your condemnation of rational, analytical viewpoints, especially of serious issues, to default to, "party-line thinking," is what's unnerving - and you stop.

The problem with this is that you’ve displayed neither rational nor analytical thinking on this issue because you’ve yet to engage with any of the actual facts in evidence brought forth by Hestia and myself. The only things were calling lies are the things we’ve demonstrated to be lies.

This isn’t an exercise in diplomatic theory, it’s about practical geopolitics and the millions of lives which hang in the balance.

So please, be rational, be analytical. When you begin to be those things, I am confident you’ll reach the conclusion that Putin has lied ten ways from Sunday on this issue and that a whataboutism like “western politicians lie about things too” is not going to make one iota of difference for the residents of Kiev who are about to be mortar-blasted halfway to Madrid.

[Hestia]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

And, indeed, Putin has said a LOT of lies (most major nations are chalk full of lying politicians, even leaders), but most of them throw in truths here and there. Even Hitler, Stalin, and Trump and said contentious things that proved to be true (and were often denounced as lies outside their faithful, at the time). Most of the Putin says is empty promises and blatant lies. But given there were horrible Ukrainian militias in the original 2014 conflict, this part may be worth investigation - not to exonerate or vindicate Putin's agendas,

I think you're kind of letting the cat out of the bag when you're saying Hitler and Stalin said some right things... 

The point is that the DNR/LNR have the burden of proof on them. Do you or do you not agree with that? 

[mark2]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

Why are you quoting elections? I'm talking about militias organized by these parties in the original 2014 Novorussiya conflict.

I genuinely do not comprehend what conclusion you are trying to come to here.

Were there far-right militias? Yes.

Does this justify Russia invading Ukraine or even be a vague reason that Putin has used as a justification for an invasion? No.

Seriously, grow up. Habitual liars lie, and Ukraine is not a major nuclear power, regardless of fucking 2014 militias.

[Hestia]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

ffs and bravado to cover up a botch or miscalculation. A lot of the what you and @Hestia have that you have proclaimed as, "facts," are themselves speculations or presumptions, with no solid evidence. Th

Because there is no solid evidence - the DNR and LNR have not published any evidence of their claims. That means they have not proved anything. I don't see how you keep going around and around on this issue when the crux of it is that they have to be the ones to post their allegations credibly. 

[mark2]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

A lot of the what you and @Hestia have that you have proclaimed as, "facts," are themselves speculations or presumptions, with no solid evidence.

Fun fact Patine: You ever heard of the term "innocent until proven guilty"? If I randomly accused you of being a terrorist who tried to help the Confederates win the US civil war, no one would believe me because I could not have evidence. If we follow your logic, we have to say that you could've been a terrorist who helped the Confederates. You don't prove that something never happened, you prove that it did happen. You don't prove that something isn't true, you prove that it is.

[Hestia]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

There is NO SOLID evidence Putin will make an all-invasion of Ukraine at all, and isn't just putting up a massive, unprecedented bluff and facade, for that matter. We just don't know, yet. But his, "imminent invasion," has come up in the news for, like, five to ten separate calls by U.S. military intelligence through CNN. These troops have sitting on the border for longer, now, than Bush, Sr.'s coalition did in Saudi Arabia before they finally launched Desert Storm. Scare tactics, presumptions of, "facts," and threats and ultimatums, and a bit of shelling both ways across the border is all we're seeing. This is unprecendented in history (except MAYBE the Phony War between the Invasion of Poland and the Invasions of France and the Low Countries in early WW2), and it seems very - bizarre - to me as a historian, like something much deeper is afoot that no one even seems to suspect.

Today he said Ukraine was not a nation and said that it was a mistake that the Soviet Union did not try to prevent nations from leaving. Tonight (you may not have seen so that's alright), Russian soldiers have moved across the border into Donetsk and Luhansk. 

[Dobs]

5 minutes ago, Patine said:

And, ironically you use the term, "whataboutism," which is not only an unproductive, diversionary, less-than-useless, non-term used only to block-up and shut-down inconvenient lines of conversion, the irony is, it was apparently first coined, years ago, by Putin himself.

So first of all, no, it's a recognized logical fallacy in which you love to engage.

Secondly, the term originated in the 70s, so I believe you're misinformed on the origins.

Finally, if you had been correct about it's origins, that would only have proven you wrong! Clearly, I don't mind using a phrase allegedly coined by Putin because I recognize that Putin is a human person who says true things and also says false things. As it just so happens, he has sad many many false things regarding Ukraine. So thank you for proving my ability to discern truth regardless of source.

6 minutes ago, Patine said:

A lot of the what you and @Hestia have that you have proclaimed as, "facts," are themselves speculations or presumptions, with no solid evidence.

Please give an example. I'd love to know what we've alleged or presumed against Mr. Putin that has offended you so greatly other than identifying his own allegations as demonstrably false.

21 minutes ago, Patine said:

And, justice means one HAS to take, "both sides," - a form of thinking @Dobs so vilifies - a vilification that is, itself, downright disturbing and dystopian in connotations.

One final point I'd like to broach - Where on *EARTH* did you get this notion? Justice is not about waffling between right and wrong, it's about exalting right and mending wrongs. Justice does not mean equivocation. The only truly dystopian measure here is the idea that a just society is one which eschew right and wrong.

Now I will grant you that justice very rarely is black and white, and that those days when it is almost always involve obituaries. But we find ourselves at the precipice of such a day. Hestia and I would simply like to avoid diving from that threshold. Even if we did not find ourselves in this position, we could make no mistake in understanding the moral positioning of an authoritarian and imperialist power threatening the sovereignty of a democratic nation over her own people and lands. I find it deeply troubling that not only have you impugned my Christianity but on the very grounds that the virtue of justice means taking the side of both right and wrong.

Hestia and I have done our research and we've interpreted the signals. The hour of clear and present danger draws nigh. We have analyzed the data and we've rationed it's consequence. The conclusiuon we've reached is the only moral one at stake. That Russia cannot be allowed to impinge upon Ukrainian sovereignty, displace millions of her people, and slaughter thousands more.

We'd like to invite you to join us in this conclusion.

[Kitten]

3 minutes ago, Patine said:

There is NO SOLID evidence Putin will make an all-invasion of Ukraine at all, and isn't just putting up a massive, unprecedented bluff and facade, for that matter. We just don't know, yet. But his, "imminent invasion," has come up in the news for, like, five to ten separate calls by U.S. military intelligence through CNN. These troops have sitting on the border for longer, now, than Bush, Sr.'s coalition did in Saudi Arabia before they finally launched Desert Storm. Scare tactics, presumptions of, "facts," and threats and ultimatums, and a bit of shelling both ways across the border is all we're seeing. This is unprecendented in history (except MAYBE the Phony War between the Invasion of Poland and the Invasions of France and the Low Countries in early WW2), and it seems very - bizarre - to me as a historian, like something much deeper is afoot that no one even seems to suspect.

I don't know man. Having a whole army sitting by the Ukrainian border seems pretty suspicious to me. It's almost as if Putin is prepared to invade Ukraine.