vcczar Posted February 4, 2022 Share Posted February 4, 2022 Here's how well the Presidential nominees since 1980 did in the PV versus their party in House elections. I've rounded up when calculating just because I haven't the time for fractionalizing the math. Note: The 1980, 1992, and 1996 had high 3rd party turnout, which impacts those results greatly. Trump is both the only person to run worse than his party twice, and the only presidential election winner to run worse than his party and lose against someone that didn't run worse than their party. I was most surprised by Obama, who in 2008, ran identically with his party, while McCain is the most overperforming nominee to lose an election. In 1992, both nominees way underperformed because of Perot, but Clinton beat Bush by 1 in a matchup vs party. In 1996, Perot seemed only to hurt Dole in this analysis, similar to how Anderson seems to have hurt mostly Carter in 1980. Margin between Pres Nom PV and Same-Party US House PV in the same election: 12pts Reagan 1984 8pts Bush 1988 3pts Reagan 1980 McCain 2008 2pts Kerry 2004 Obama 2012 1pt Clinton 1996 Gore 2000 Bush 2004 Biden 2020 0pts Bush 2000 Obama 2008 Clinton 2016 -1pt Romney 2012 Trump 2020 -3pt Trump 2016 -7pts Clinton 1992 -8pts Dukakis 1988 Bush 1992 Dole 1996 -9.5 pts Carter 1980 -11.5 pts Mondale 1984 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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