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2024 Poll


vcczar
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2024 Poll  

16 members have voted

  1. 1. Which of these factors most makes Donald Trump a weak nominee in 2024?

    • He lost the election in 2020.
    • He has twice lost the popular vote, almost doubling his margin of popular vote defeat in 2020.
    • Trump decisively lost independents in 2020, a group that had supported him in 2016, and likely won't win back a group he lost.
    • Women make up 52% of voters and 57% of them voted for Biden.
      0
    • Only 12% of black voters voted for Trump, a crucial voting demographic in the new purple state of Georgia.
      0
    • Biden won over 60% of both Hispanics and Asians, the former is a crucial demographic in the new purple state of Arizona.
    • Democrats, independents, anti-Trump Republicans were historically motivated to vote against Trump rather than for Biden.
    • Trump lost 4% of the Evangelical vote, from 80% in 2016 to 76% in 2020.
      0
    • Covid allowed both ancient nominees to leisurely campaign. As a challenger, Trump at age 78 will lack the stamina he had, and won't be an attractive alternative to an equally ancient incumbent.
    • None. Donald Trump will be an even stronger candidate in 2024 than he was in 2020 and possibly in 2016.
  2. 2. Group 1: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  3. 3. Group 2: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  4. 4. Group 3: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  5. 5. Group 4: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  6. 6. Group 5: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  7. 7. Group 6: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  8. 8. Group 7: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

    • Donald Trump
    • Marjorie Taylor Greene
  9. 9. Group 8: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

    • Donald Trump
    • Donald Trump Jr
  10. 10. Group 9: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  11. 11. Group 10: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  12. 12. Group 11: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  13. 13. Group 12: Who SHOULD be the GOP nominee to give them the best chance of securing victory in 2024?

  14. 14. If Donald Trump is a candidate in 2024 and the following run against him, who is most likely to defeat Trump for the nomination?

    • Larry Hogan
      0
    • Tim Scott
    • Ron DeSantis
  15. 15. If Donald Trump is not the nominee, but the following are, who do you think does well enough in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada to gain momentum for the nomination?

    • Ron DeSantis
    • Nikki Haley
    • Tim Scott
    • Ted Cruz
    • Marco Rubio
    • Larry Hogan
      0
    • Charlie Baker
      0
    • Chris Christie
      0
    • Marjorie Taylor Greene
      0
    • Mike Pompeo
      0
    • Ben Carson
      0
    • Kristi Noem
      0
    • Mike Pence
    • Donald Trump Jr
      0
    • Tom Cotton
    • Mitt Romney
      0
    • Liz Cheney
      0
    • Kris Kobach
      0
    • Steve Bannon
      0
    • The MyPillow CEO
      0


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For question 1, I voted for Trump being a stronger candidate on two conditions: 
1. COVID and social distancing is gone and large rallies are held again.
2. Joe Biden is running for President again.

I feel like using COVID as an excuse to not hold rallies helped the lower-energy and more gaffe-prone Biden campaign win. Keeping him out of the spotlight after the primaries was the best thing they did to ensure victory. That wouldn't be as much of a possibility in 2024, as Biden would be expected to make many public appearances on the campaign trail.

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Right now, the only Republican I think who could outperform Donald Trump in a General Election is Mike Pence -- or, rather, it WAS Mike Pence.  He alone was positioned to keep the Trump loyalists (with Trump's endorsement) while recapturing the Never Trumps.

But Trump turning on Pence...and the Republican party following his lead...has doomed the Republican Party for the foreseeable future.  They've made their bed.  Now they have to shit in it.

Honestly, it's difficult for me to see Republicans regaining the White House in the next 20 years.  And, my usual caveat: I say that as a moderate who backed W Bush in both elections, and would have happily voted for JEB! over Hillary.  The party is so far gone now that I don't see how they regroup and rebuild.  I think they'll just keep finding new Trumps to nominate, which will continue to perform worse and worse in the general.

They lost Georgia...not just in the Presidential election but also BOTH Senate elections MONTHS later.  They're booing Mitt Romney in UTAH.  Kansas elected a Democrat woman as Governor.

If you can't hold KANSAS, the party is dead.  

They'll continue to be the second-strongest party, of course.  They'll win Senate Seats, House Races, Governors Mansions.  

But I have no idea how they'll ever reach the point of nominating someone who isn't a Trump disciple now.

Edited by MrPotatoTed
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9 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

While that may be a clear warning signal, it doesn't mean that's the future at all. See Alabama. They elected Doug Jones and he lost by a big margin at the next election.

As I said, I have no doubt that Republicans will still win individual Senate races.  That could well include Georgia.

But I don't foresee a path that anyone could take to both win the Republican nomination (Must be a Trump loyalist) and also win a general election (must have no connection to Trump).  

The adding of the phrase "Trump" is more recent, but this is a long-standing issue with the party -- people who could win the loyalty of moderate independents like Jon Huntsman, Chris Christie, JEB! Bush...get absolutely nowhere in their party's primary.  Meanwhile, Democrats consistently find candidates with a broader appeal (Hillary perhaps the notable exception), and get the win.

 

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31 minutes ago, Dobs said:

For a healthcare professional, I would have thought you were familiar with Kathleen Sebelius!

I actually worked for her, for a period of time.  I was one of her spokesmen, but at a lower rung so while we were frequently in the same room together, she had no idea who I was.  Haha.

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4 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I actually worked for her, for a period of time.  I was one of her spokesmen, but at a lower rung so while we were frequently in the same room together, she had no idea who I was.  Haha.

Then you should know it’s quite common for Kansas to elect Democratic women as their Governor.

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13 minutes ago, Dobs said:

Then you should know it’s quite common for Kansas to elect Democratic women as their Governor.

I worked for her at Health and Human Services, almost ten years ago.  What state she was from wasn't at the forefront of my thoughts.   ;c)

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Just because a party has a firm grip on a state in Presidential elections doesn't mean they do so in state elections.

1) Republicans generally win Montana in Presidential elections, but Jon Tester wins the state.

2) West Virginia is die-hard Republican these days, but Joe Manchin won in 2018.

3) Wyoming is ultra-Republican, but a Democrat actually managed to win once.

4) Vermont gave their Presidential votes to Hilary while giving Sanders 6% in write-in votes. Sanders destroyed Hilary in the Vermont primary, and he destroys the Republican candidates in the Senate elections. However, Phil Scott managed to win there.

5) Massachusetts and Maryland - diehard Democrat states in Presidential elections - have Republican governors.

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3 hours ago, Timur said:

Just because a party has a firm grip on a state in Presidential elections doesn't mean they do so in state elections.

1) Republicans generally win Montana in Presidential elections, but Jon Tester wins the state.

2) West Virginia is die-hard Republican these days, but Joe Manchin won in 2018.

3) Wyoming is ultra-Republican, but a Democrat actually managed to win once.

4) Vermont gave their Presidential votes to Hilary while giving Sanders 6% in write-in votes. Sanders destroyed Hilary in the Vermont primary, and he destroys the Republican candidates in the Senate elections. However, Phil Scott managed to win there.

5) Massachusetts and Maryland - diehard Democrat states in Presidential elections - have Republican governors.

This is seeming less likely the case as crossover voting is greatly decreasing. For instance, I don't think Manchin would have won had the election been during a presidential year, for instance. 

Massachusetts is odd. Charlie Baker's approval is higher among Democrats than it is among Republican voters. In a way Baker, Scott, and Sununu would likely be Democrats if they lived in Louisiana or something. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

This is seeming less likely the case as crossover voting is greatly decreasing. For instance, I don't think Manchin would have won had the election been during a presidential year, for instance. 

Massachusetts is odd. Charlie Baker's approval is higher among Democrats than it is among Republican voters. In a way Baker, Scott, and Sununu would likely be Democrats if they lived in Louisiana or something. 

Maybe, but Manchin is a clever candidate.

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