vcczar Posted March 4, 2022 Share Posted March 4, 2022 March 4th: Thought I'd start this running thread. 1. Biden approval: I was prompted to do so because the A-grade Marist Polling company released two polls with Biden at 47% approval, following his SOTU address. This raised his average approval to almost 43% (he'd been at about 41% on average, sometimes 40%). He's about 2 pts higher than Trump at this time in Trump's presidency (+4 pts for net approval). Despite Biden's low approval, there is yet to be a day--on average--in which Trump's approval was better than Biden's approval. However, they've been virtually tied a lot frequently, with Biden ahead by less than 1 pt. 2. Trump favorability: Trump's favorability is 42.4% on average. Favorability isn't the same as approval, but there is certainly overlap. While 42% seems close to Biden's current approval, Trump's net favorability is worse than Biden's net approval. Regardless, this is making 2024 seem like it's going to be more like 2016---two nominees no one wants to vote for but whom will get the nomination, likely leading to high 3rd party voting. I expect much higher 3rd party voting and also much higher non-voters if they are the nominees. This changes if Biden's approval increases significantly. 3. Kamala Harris approval About 39% on average. Quite terrible, and she polls #2 in Democratic primary polls, behind Biden. Her net disapproval is 50%, which means 11% haven't made up their mind. She has more room to rise than Biden. 4. Generic Dem and Generic Rep Despite Biden's low approval, Generic GOP is only leading by +2 on average in the polls, although 14% of pollsters on average have no preference. Theoretically, the GOP should probably be leading by +5 or +10 based on Biden's approval. However, I think the Trumpist element is certainly scaring enough poll-takers into keeping Democrats competitive here. I'll post more updates and such as interesting polls arrive. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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