Polling Thread: Approval, Favorability, 2024 Match Ups, etc.

[vcczar]

March 4th: 

Thought I'd start this running thread.

1. Biden approval:

I was prompted to do so because the A-grade Marist Polling company released two polls with Biden at 47% approval, following his SOTU address. This raised his average approval to almost 43% (he'd been at about 41% on average, sometimes 40%). He's about 2 pts higher than Trump at this time in Trump's presidency (+4 pts for net approval). Despite Biden's low approval, there is yet to be a day--on average--in which Trump's approval was better than Biden's approval. However, they've been virtually tied a lot frequently, with Biden ahead by less than 1 pt. 

2. Trump favorability:

Trump's favorability is 42.4% on average. Favorability isn't the same as approval, but there is certainly overlap. While 42% seems close to Biden's current approval, Trump's net favorability is worse than Biden's net approval. 

Regardless, this is making 2024 seem like it's going to be more like 2016---two nominees no one wants to vote for but whom will get the nomination, likely leading to high 3rd party voting. I expect much higher 3rd party voting and also much higher non-voters if they are the nominees. This changes if Biden's approval increases significantly. 

3. Kamala Harris approval

About 39% on average. Quite terrible, and she polls #2 in Democratic primary polls, behind Biden. Her net disapproval is 50%, which means 11% haven't made up their mind. She has more room to rise than Biden. 

4. Generic Dem and Generic Rep

Despite Biden's low approval, Generic GOP is only leading by +2 on average in the polls, although 14% of pollsters on average have no preference. Theoretically, the GOP should probably be leading by +5 or +10 based on Biden's approval. However, I think the Trumpist element is certainly scaring enough poll-takers into keeping Democrats competitive here. 

I'll post more updates and such as interesting polls arrive. 

[ConservativeElector2]

4 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I expect much higher 3rd party voting

That really depends on what 3rd parties are actually doing. I expected that initially for 2020 as well, but the showing was mediocre though not really surprising. The Libertarian Party fell from Gary Johnson/Bill Weld to Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen.

[vcczar]

28 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

That really depends on what 3rd parties are actually doing. I expected that initially for 2020 as well, but the showing was mediocre though not really surprising. The Libertarian Party fell from Gary Johnson/Bill Weld to Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen.

2020 wasn't a condition for high 3rd party turnout. 

In 2016, you had two candidates with extremely low favorability, and you had lower than expected voter turnout (55% instead of the 60 to 65% everyone was expecting). Ultimately, you had 6% voting 3rd party and a score of faithless electors. While 6% doesn't seem high, in America that's unusually high for a 3rd party. It was less than 2% in 2008 and 2012, for instance. 

In 2020, you had only one candidate with extremely low favorability and one likable enough to be used as a vessel to defeat the unlikable one. Instead of 55% turnout, you had 66% turnout as people rallied behind defeating Trump or supporting Trump. Again, 3rd party voting was less than 2%. 

For 2024, you're going to get back to a 2016 situation. I expect voting turnout to be like 55% or lower, and 3rd party voting to be 5% or higher. Unfortunately, I think this would help Trump more than Biden. 

[Rezi]

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I was prompted to do so because the A-grade Marist Polling company released two polls with Biden at 47% approval, following his SOTU address. This raised his average approval to almost 43% (he'd been at about 41% on average, sometimes 40%). 

Perhaps the most important part of that poll. If Biden keeps winning on the Ukraine front, it could be a huge help for him when it comes to both midterms and 2024.

[ConservativeElector2]

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

2020 wasn't a condition for high 3rd party turnout. 

In 2016, you had two candidates with extremely low favorability.

In 2020, you had only one candidate with extremely low favorability and one likable enough to be used as a vessel to defeat the unlikable one. 

I agree with you on 2016 but not on 2020. I think what you have said about 2016 is also true for 2020. Just the outcome differed. I expected people to vote for Clinton over Trump, despite being not liked by many. It just didn't happen. In 2020 Biden was not chosen because he was really popular with the electorate either. During the primaries he was no clear frontrunner, and he was only helped by a win in SC after which other candidates started to pull out. Clinton won her nomination because there were no real alternatives in the primaries. The people weren't ready to pick her over Bernie and she was arguably the heir apparent for eight years after her loss against Obama. At the time of the 2016 primaries I think Biden could have beaten Clinton.

I think part of the low number with 2% for third parties was caused by their bad and uninspiring candidates, not because people felt themselves really close with Biden or Trump. Had Johnson/Weld either declared again or had they not run at all in 2016, I think the percentage for the LP would have been at least ~6% in 2020 as well. Same goes for the Green Party. Jill Stein is not someone who runs good campaigns, but I would say she's a better established candidate/fundraiser (?) than Howie Hawkins. 

Of course the low turn out for third parties has probably helped in one way or the other, but I don't concur with your judgment on people not choosing third parties like 4 years before just because of Biden or Trump. Biden was only a marginal improvement to Clinton. By the time of the general election campaign that was already clear. In 2015 (maybe even until 2017) I had expected Biden to cruise easily to victory in a primary contest. That was when I still liked him somewhat. He had a hard time to win his primaries and some even mulled him stopping his campaign after NH. So, I don't really think it is only me who lost faith in him after about 2017. That brings me to my bottom line that he was just a minor improvement compared to Clinton and both candidates were nearly equally unpopular in 2020. 

[ConservativeElector2]

2 hours ago, Rezi said:

Perhaps the most important part of that poll. If Biden keeps winning on the Ukraine front, it could be a huge help for him when it comes to both midterms and 2024.

I don't really see what he does on this, that would cause this kind of admiration. If anyone is to praised I would choose Macron as European leader and especially the EU as an organization. I think, surprisingly, the EU leading the charge against Russia. They are building a front against them, targeting them on the economy.

I haven't got the feeling the US is doing anything particular valuable on this front. For me the administration seems once again more like a bystander while others are in charge. The same goes for Prime Minister Johnson, Chancellor Scholz and their respective administrations. Both are more or less missing in action and Scholz's trip to Putin in mid-February was a complete joke anyway. I mean that guy went there, and Putin invades less than two weeks later? Good job actually. He could have achieved that without travelling to Moscow as well.

You wouldn't really expect me to say anything good about the EU, so yeah I am kind of surprised about myself. 

[DakotaHale]

2 hours ago, Patine said:

The two Dotards need to be mandatorily retired.

Secret Service: 🤨

[Hestia]

2 hours ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

Scholz's trip to Putin in mid-February was a complete joke anywa

 

2 hours ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

anyone is to praised I would choose Macron a

They both did the same imo. Scholz has at least done more since to rectify it.

[Timur]

I would say that many people who vote Third Party/Independent would stay home if they had the only two choices, so Third Parties help boost turnout a little...

[Rezi]

Another one. Polls have been varying, but are showing a tick up for Biden. Just differs on whether it's a small tick up or a big tick up.

[vcczar]

28 minutes ago, Rezi said:

nother one. Polls have been varying, but are showing a tick up for Biden. Just differs on whether it's a small tick up or a big tick up.

Yeah, I just hope he can keep it up to turn the 2022 Red Wave into a Red trickle, so that the Democrats can at least barely keep the House and likely keep the Senate. 

[Rezi]

2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I just hope he can keep it up to turn the 2022 Red Wave into a Red trickle, so that the Democrats can at least barely keep the House and likely keep the Senate. 

If Biden did somehow get his net approval rating back above water, it isn’t out of the question to keep the house. Redistricting, while eliminating many competitive districts, is slightly tilted towards Dems IMO.

Edited March 9, 2022 by Rezi

[vcczar]

2 minutes ago, Rezi said:

If Biden did somehow get his net approval rating back above water, it isn’t out of the question to keep the house. Redistricting, while eliminating many competitive districts, is slightly tilted towards Dems IMO.

If Dems keep the House, they need a new Speaker. Pelosi is two years OLDER than Biden. 

[Pringles]

13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

If Dems keep the House, they need a new Speaker. Pelosi is two years OLDER than Biden. 

If Dems retain the House I just want Clyburn to get Speakership. Cause he's a fellow Carolinian. 😛 

[vcczar]

1 minute ago, Pringles said:

If Dems retain the House I just want Clyburn to get Speakership. Cause he's a fellow Carolinian. 😛 

He'd be cool, but he's also like 80 years old. So is Sten Hoyer. In most cases, it would be their turn, but they're all over 80. Hakeem Jeffries is sort of next in line after them. He's 51.

[Pringles]

2 minutes ago, vcczar said:

He'd be cool, but he's also like 80 years old. So is Sten Hoyer. In most cases, it would be their turn, but they're all over 80. Hakeem Jeffries is sort of next in line after them. He's 51.

Yeah. I feel at least in terms of looks, and the way he carries himself, he's in better shape than Pelosi and others imo. 

[jnewt]

6 hours ago, vcczar said:

If Dems keep the House, they need a new Speaker. Pelosi is two years OLDER than Biden. 

Who though? I don't think she should have even have gotten a second stint as Speaker, but they really don't seem to be grooming anyone for the position. I agree that Jeffries would probably be next up; Katherine Clark could also be a possibility. But I'd really like to see someone more exciting, it just doesn't seem like anyone like that is in a good position for the job.

[pilight]

On 3/4/2022 at 2:35 PM, ConservativeElector2 said:

That really depends on what 3rd parties are actually doing. I expected that initially for 2020 as well, but the showing was mediocre though not really surprising. The Libertarian Party fell from Gary Johnson/Bill Weld to Jo Jorgensen/Spike Cohen.

Jorgensen pulled a better percentage than Johnson did in 2012.  That makes me think 2016 was an outlier.

[Timur]

30 minutes ago, pilight said:

Jorgensen pulled a better percentage than Johnson did in 2012.  That makes me think 2016 was an outlier.

Honestly, Jorgensen wasn't really well known like Gary Johnson, so getting 1% is indeed an accomplishment (though she might have inherited some of it from Gary Johnson, still a good result, considering the Green Party fell from 2.74% in 2000 to 0.10% in 2004).