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Quickshot 2016 - Republican Primary


The Blood

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1. Chris Christie campaigns in New Hampshire, seeking to gain a strong standing there before Iowa finishes voting.

2. Christie tours a plant in Manchester, NH, before making a speech about the economy.

3. Christie ends his week in South Carolina, hoping to spread his luck out after New Hampshire. 

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1.Ted Cruz visits New Hampshire. While in NH, he will declare his support for labeling GMOs. He also meets working class voters in NH.

2.Ted Cruz will visit South Carolina and campaign among African Americans. He says he disagrees with political correctness, but promises that he will make sure they will not be left behind. He notes his cooperation with Sheila Jackson Lee and Cory Booker on school choice. He also promises to reform the police and the criminal justice system.

3.Ted Cruz will meet with Latino voters. He will try speaking in Spanish.

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Donald will pay one last visit to Iowa and tell Iowans "You're dumb if you vote for Ted Cruz, vote for me."

Trump will then go to New Hampshire and say that by having a coastline they are at risk of immigrants.

Trump will hold a rally in New Hampshire and give every attendant a small piece of granite

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Fiorina will continue trying to connect with Iowa workers with town halls.
Fiorina will go to Charleston, SC to discuss healthcare reform.
Fiorina will go to New Hampshire to discuss the economy and climate change.

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On 4/13/2022 at 7:01 AM, Zenobiyl said:

Rand Paul announces he will be suspending his presidential campaign, and strongly urges all of his supporters to vote for Ben Carson in the primaries, especially in the Iowa Caucus. 

Endorsement: 5. Rand Paul leaves the race to the deep disappointment of his supporters, and while many do accept the advice of their former candidate and back Ben Carson, so too do many throw their support behind other candidates or abandon the primary altogether, disheartened and unwilling to back Ben Carson.

 

On 4/13/2022 at 1:57 PM, Rezi said:
  1. Jeb Bush challenges Donald Trump @Fbarbarossa to an Epic Rap Battle of History moderated by NicePeter and EpicLLoyd
  2. Jeb Bush beats Chuck Grassley over the head for an endorsement, "Hand it over, old man"
  3. Jeb Bush invokes the spirit of Barry Goldwater in a new campaign ad in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina.

 

Epic Rap Battles: 8. While Donald Trump makes no comment on Jeb!'s request, Bush will rap against an actor playing Donald, dropping some sick beats and appealing to the youth vote.

 

Chuck Grassley: 1! Chuck quickly goes to the media to report on Bush's violent and demanding outburst towards him, leading to a media firestorm and Grassley calling for Iowans to caucus for anyone but Bush.

 

Ad: 6. It's a strange choice, but the ad is well-produced and converts a handful of early state voters to the Jeb! campaign.

 

Overall: -1. The Chuck Grassley assault incident dominates the week for Jeb!, drowning out his time on Epic Rap Battles of History and a somewhat successful campaign ad.

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On 4/14/2022 at 9:13 AM, Hestia said:

1. Chris Christie campaigns in New Hampshire, seeking to gain a strong standing there before Iowa finishes voting.

2. Christie tours a plant in Manchester, NH, before making a speech about the economy.

3. Christie ends his week in South Carolina, hoping to spread his luck out after New Hampshire. 

New Hampshire: 2. Christie appears to be losing his touch in New Hampshire as he campaigns to small and at times hostile crowds of voters, struggling in the Q&A section of townhalls and becoming angry at voters for difficult questions. Meanwhile, the media ignores his campaign as all eyes are on Iowa.

 

New Hampshire: 5. The tour goes reasonably well, though Christie's speech afterward is noticeably uninteresting.

 

South Carolina: 4. The Christie campaign fails to deliver turnout to the Governor's events, and Christie himself lacks both enthusiasm and energy campaigning in the state.

 

Overall: -4. Christie struggles this week as the campaign prepares for a heated struggle in New Hampshire once Iowa passes.

On 4/14/2022 at 1:21 PM, Timur said:

1.Ted Cruz visits New Hampshire. While in NH, he will declare his support for labeling GMOs. He also meets working class voters in NH.

2.Ted Cruz will visit South Carolina and campaign among African Americans. He says he disagrees with political correctness, but promises that he will make sure they will not be left behind. He notes his cooperation with Sheila Jackson Lee and Cory Booker on school choice. He also promises to reform the police and the criminal justice system.

3.Ted Cruz will meet with Latino voters. He will try speaking in Spanish.

New Hampshire: 3. New Hampshire isn't Cruz's turf, and he fails to connect with the working class while campaigning in the state, instead coming off as awkward and out-of-touch.

 

South Carolina: 10! Ted Cruz's support among South Carolina's African American community goes soaring, with Ted coming off as the rare Republican concerned with and dedicated to Black issues.

 

Latino Voters: 8. Ted speaks acceptably fluent Spanish, impressing many Latino voters and boosting his support with the demographic.

 

Overall: +6. Ted Cruz performs strongly throughout the week, connecting with both Black and Latino voters and building momentum ahead of an expected landslide in Iowa.

On 4/15/2022 at 1:36 PM, Kitten said:

Lindsay is gonna campaign in Iowa where he meets farmers and talks about cutting taxes

Lindsay talks about Isreal in New Hampshire

Lindsay will talk of cutting back regulations

Iowa: 5. Lindsey fails to impress rural voters with his promise of tax cuts.

 

New Hampshire: 5. Most voters want to hear about issues closer to home, with the topic of Israel failing to bring new supporters to the Graham campaign.

 

Regulations: 2. A reporter will ask about what specific regulations Graham wishes to cut, causing the Senator to begin yelling at the reporter and refusing to answer the question, harming the campaign.

 

Overall: -3. Lindsey struggles to gain traction as Iowa arrives, instead backsliding after a nasty altercation with a reporter.

On 4/15/2022 at 1:59 PM, Fbarbarossa said:

Donald will pay one last visit to Iowa and tell Iowans "You're dumb if you vote for Ted Cruz, vote for me."

Trump will then go to New Hampshire and say that by having a coastline they are at risk of immigrants.

Trump will hold a rally in New Hampshire and give every attendant a small piece of granite

Iowa: 3. With so many Iowans backing Cruz, attacking his supporters is obviously a mistake, and even those who are simply considering Cruz are left feeling attacked and insulted by Trump's comments.

 

New Hampshire: 2. Trump will be mocked for the comments, with many primary voters wondering how someone so uneducated and dumb could be a contender in their state.

 

New Hampshire: 10! However, Trump recovers his New Hampshire campaign by holding a packed rally in the state, with voters lining up for their piece of granite and left entranced by the Trump message.

 

Overall: 0. With two failures on the trail and one electric rally, Trump breaks even as the campaign braces for the results in Iowa and upcoming slugfest in New Hampshire.

On 4/16/2022 at 1:04 PM, Rodja said:

1.Dr.Carson will barnstorm IA with his healthcare message.

2.Dr.Carson will seek an endorsement from Nancy Reagan

3.Carson campaign volunteers will launch door to door effort in NH.

Iowa: 8. Healthcare continues to be a boon for the Carson campaign, with Iowans receptive to Carson's message and policy plan.

 

Nancy Reagan: 1! Not only does Nancy refuse Carson's request for an endorsement, but she openly refers to him as a "horrible candidate" in the press, going so far as to say, "Ronald would be disappointed to see a candidate like Ben Carson in contention".

 

New Hampshire: 5. Carson's campaign infrastructure isn't the strongest in New Hampshire, meaning he has few volunteers to canvass, and the actual canvassing fails to bring an impact to the campaign.

 

Overall: -2. The Nancy Reagan rebuke dominates the headlines for Carson this week, though a silver lining of success in Iowa prevents the week from being a total disaster.

7 hours ago, mark2 said:

Fiorina will continue trying to connect with Iowa workers with town halls.
Fiorina will go to Charleston, SC to discuss healthcare reform.
Fiorina will go to New Hampshire to discuss the economy and climate change.

Iowa: 7. Fiorina effectively connects with Iowan workers, inspiring them with her message and boosting her campaign.

 

South Carolina: 10! Fiorina's event in Charleston is packed with voters and cameras, as Carly stuns attendees with her wonkery on healthcare policy and reform.

 

New Hampshire: 5. In New Hampshire, however, coverage is minimal and Fiorina fails to impress voters.

 

Overall: +7. Carly Fiorina brings a surprising life to her campaign as the bottom-tier candidate finds success for her message.

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2016 Iowa Republican Caucus Results:

 

Total Caucusgoers: 190,226

 

Ted Cruz: 68,588 votes - 36.06% - 11 delegates

 

Ben Carson: 39,977 votes - 21.02% - 6 delegates

 

Donald Trump: 31,506 votes - 16.56% - 5 delegates

 

Carly Fiorina: 17,596 votes - 9.25% - 3 delegates

 

Jeb! Bush: 15,407 votes - 8.10% - 2 delegates

 

Lindsey Graham: 11,350 votes - 5.96% - 2 delegates

 

Chris Christie: 5,802 votes - 3.05% - 1 delegate

 

Turnout Rolls:

Fiorina: 10! 

Carson: 7. 

Graham: 6. 

Christie: 5. 

Cruz: 5. 

Bush: 2. 

Trump: 1! 

 

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FINAL TURN UNTIL NEW HAMPSHIRE!

 

National GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 5th, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 26%(+4)

 

Donald Trump: 22%(-3)

 

 Ben Carson: 20%(+4)

 

Jeb! Bush: 12%(-3)

 

Chris Christie: 9%(-2)

 

Carly Fiorina: 7%(+4)

 

Lindsay Graham: 4%(-1)

 

  

 

 

New Hampshire GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 5th, 2016:

Bush: 19%(-3)

 

Christie: 19%(-3)

 

Trump: 19%(-2)

 

Cruz: 17%(+3) 

 

Carson: 14%(+3)

 

Fiorina: 8%(+4) 

 

Graham: 4%(-1)

 

 

South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 5th, 2016: 

Cruz: 27%(+5) 

 

Carson: 20%(+4)

 

Trump: 17%(-4)

 

Bush: 14%(-3)

 

Christie: 9%(-2)

 

Fiorina: 8%(+5) 

 

Graham: 5%(-1)

 

 

Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - February 5th 2016: 

Cruz: 27%(+4) 

 

Trump: 24%(-4)

 

Carson: 16%(+3)

 

Bush: 11%(-3)

 

Christie: 9%(-2)

 

Fiorina: 9%(+4) 

 

Graham: 4%(-1)

 

New Hampshire Debate: All candidates are invited to the final debate before New Hampshire in Goffstown, New Hampshire, organized by ABC News. 3 debate actions as usual.

 

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  1. Jeb Bush calls Nancy Reagan "A racist bitch" for insulting Ben Carson, and says that her husband would be proud of her. He does this in New Hampshire
  2. Jeb Bush declares former MA Governor Bill Weld as his running mate if he is to win the nomination. He does this in New Hampshire
  3. Jeb Bush holds a megarally in New Hampshire with Marco Rubio, where Jeb cries over 9/11 and declares that he has an obligation to help America get through the tough times. It ends with Jeb lighting himself on fire and demonstrating "stop, drop, and roll", which he says is a metaphor for Cruz's approach to foreign terrorism.
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Fiorina will drop a diss track on Ted Cruz, featuring way too many jokes about him being the Zodiac Killer.
Fiorina will visit Manchester to host a town hall and receive questions from every-day New Hampshire residents.
Fiorina will challenge Trump to a fencing duel, where the winner wins a Blockbuster gift card and 6.9 million dollars

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1.Cruz visits New Hampshire. He will promise to abolish the IRS.

2.Cruz promises to end government surveillance by the NSA.

3.Cruz will seek the endorsement of Bob Smith, former Senator of New Hampshire.

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1. Chris Christie will appear for a rally in Nashua with Senator Ayotte, calling on voters to turn out for him.

2. Christie will attempt to get an interview with the New Hampshire Union-Leader to be run in the paper before the election.

3. Christie will barnstorm in Manchester to get more people to turn out, speaking about taxes. 

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Donald will decide to go all in on New Hampshire! He will announce a grand tour of the state beginning with a rally on tariffs.

The tour will continue as Trump continues to truck the New Hampshire and holds a rally on his immigration views!

Finally the orange streak tour will conclude with a fiery rally where Trump will attack all other candidates while spouting his own platform.

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1.Dr.Carson will seek an endorsement from GOP gubernatorial NH nominee Chris Sununu,offering his support in governor race in return.

2.Dr.Carson will campaign throughout NH focusing on tax cuts message.

3.Carson campaign will launch series of ads drawing comparisions between himself and Ronald Reaan throughout the country, 

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Republican Debate Results:

Meeting in Goffstown, New Hampshire, the Republican candidates for President faced off in a bloody debate in leadup to the New Hampshire primary. Tearing into one another as multiple candidates vie for victory in the state, the debate proved to be as entertaining as it is pivotal for the direction of the Republican campaign in the Granite State. Here is how the night went.

 

Jeb! Bush(8,10,5): +8. After a disastrous fifth place showing in the Iowa Caucuses, many believed the Jeb! Bush campaign was dead-on-arrival. However, Jeb! would prove the pundits wrong with a glowing night on the debate stage. He would start off strong, declaring that he is the candidate to unite the party and nation, healing America's political wounds and starting a second Era of Good Feelings. However, what would truly make the night Jeb!'s would be his killer attack against Donald Trump, declaring Donald to be an, "immoral twice-divorcee who would abandon this country as President like it's one of his trophy wives". Donald would tear up in response to Jeb!'s brutal assault, refusing to give a response. And while Jeb! would then give a mediocre, transparent appeal to New Hampshirites, overall the night was terrific for him and his campaign.

 

Ben Carson(6,9,7): +7. While Ben Carson may not have excelled on stage to the same extent as Bush, he certainly was one of the winners of the night, giving further strength to an already surging campaign. Carson would start off well enough, proclaiming himself to be a strong fighter for conservative values who can unify the Republican Party and independents in an acceptably successful opening to the night. However, Ben would shine most going on the attack, slamming Ted Cruz as a divisive frontrunner who would lose in a General Election, with Carson winning applause from the audience as he tore into Cruz. Carson would then make a strong appeal to independents and antiestablishment voters, ending the night with a strong performance boosting his campaign.

 

Carly Fiorina(10,3,8): +6. Carly Fiorina brought energy and life to her time on the debate stage, aiding an underdog campaign fighting for every scrap as it tries to further its movement up in the polls. She would start off excellently, receiving thunderous applause touting herself as the "best woman to exist" in the history of the country. She would then stumble in a failed attack on Donald Trump, misstating the years of the Trump University debacle as 2008-2011, something Donald would point out as he quickly brushed aside the attack. However, Fiorina would rebound with a passionate appeal to blue-collar workers, using her business experience as proof of her ability to improve the economy and provide wealth to the working class. Overall, a strong night for Fiorina.

 

Lindsey Graham(2,8,10): +5. Lindsey Graham gave a strong and impassioned performance on stage which proved to be impactful despite the Senator still falling behind the performances of many of his fellow competitors. Lindsey would start off weakly, struggling through a statement on lowering taxes when a moderator would point out he was misrepresenting multiple figures in his tax plan. However, Senator Graham would recover, giving a strong appeal to undecided Republicans, before transitioning to a brutal assault on Ted Cruz. Unleashing holy hell on Ted, Graham would declare the frontrunner to be a, "slimy Canadian who's unfit to lead", causing Cruz to simply look down in shame. With that, Lindsey left the debate stage knowing that while he may not have won the debate, he certainly left his mark.

 

Donald Trump(8,1,9): -3. Donald Trump, while not the loser of the night, left the debate stage bruised and uncertain of how his performance would affect the upcoming primary. He would start off with a strong, confident declaration that he is the candidate to fix America's problems. However, Donald's woes would then begin, as he embarrassed himself attacking Lindsey Graham as a, "potential foreigner, maybe even a Muslim", claiming Graham may not have been born in America. Unsurprisingly, these birther claims worked less successfully on a white conservative than they did on Obama, with the audience bursting into laughter at Trump, including the moderators, and endless ridicule facing Don after the debate. Trump would then face a vicious attack from Jeb! Bush over his history of divorce, only saving face with a successful appeal to the virulent anti-Obama crowd, turning the night from a disaster into a disappointment.

 

Chris Christie(4,4,2): -5. Perhaps the rush of the campaign meant that debate prep was forced out of Christie's schedule, or perhaps the Governor was nervous this particular night. No matter what the cause of Chris Christie's dismal debate performance was, he left the stage embarrassed and wounded from a night of failure. He would start off with a stilted, uncharismatic appeal to moderates, before launching an attack against Ted Cruz as an "extremist" which Ted would easily dispatch. However, the worst moment for Christie on stage would be a speech declaring himself to be the candidate that, "most represents Nevadan values." While Christie obviously meant New Hampshirite, the gaffe would be the defining sound bite of Christie's debate performance, establishing the debate as a miserable affair for the candidate.

 

Ted Cruz(10,3,3): -8. Ted Cruz started the night with excellence, inspiring voters with a passionate, masterfully orated message of small government conservatism. However, it was as if Ted had forgotten to practice for the debate after his opening message, with his performance taking an immediate nosedive. He would struggle through an awkward and obvious pander to libertarian Republicans, before being easily handled attempting to attack Ben Carson over dishonesty. Already struggling, Ted would then have the night turned fully sour for him as both Ben Carson and Lindsey Graham went on the assault, tearing into the Texas Senator and leaving Cruz as the loser of the night.

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On 4/17/2022 at 11:33 PM, Rezi said:
  1. Jeb Bush calls Nancy Reagan "A racist bitch" for insulting Ben Carson, and says that her husband would be proud of her. He does this in New Hampshire
  2. Jeb Bush declares former MA Governor Bill Weld as his running mate if he is to win the nomination. He does this in New Hampshire
  3. Jeb Bush holds a megarally in New Hampshire with Marco Rubio, where Jeb cries over 9/11 and declares that he has an obligation to help America get through the tough times. It ends with Jeb lighting himself on fire and demonstrating "stop, drop, and roll", which he says is a metaphor for Cruz's approach to foreign terrorism.

New Hampshire: 2. Jeb! Bush is booed for the comment, with nearly half the crowd leaving the event and negative media coverage surrounding his insult against Nancy.

 

New Hampshire: 6. The ticket is announced to minor success, with most voters simply not caring, aside from a few liberal Republicans. 

 

New Hampshire: 3. The rally is commented on for its strangeness, and many do question Bush's erratic behavior.

 

Overall + Debate: +4. While Bush struggles on the campaign trail, a winning debate performance keeps his campaign moving forward with modest momentum.

On 4/17/2022 at 11:45 PM, mark2 said:

Fiorina will drop a diss track on Ted Cruz, featuring way too many jokes about him being the Zodiac Killer.
Fiorina will visit Manchester to host a town hall and receive questions from every-day New Hampshire residents.
Fiorina will challenge Trump to a fencing duel, where the winner wins a Blockbuster gift card and 6.9 million dollars

Ted Cruz: 6. Fiorina isn't the best singer, and the song doesn't make waves, but the diss track is somewhat successful online.

 

New Hampshire: 7. Fiorina does well in the Q&A environment, tackling questions from voters and connecting with New Hampshirites deciding on their pick for President.

 

Fence: 4. The request goes ignored by Trump and most in the media, though one CNN article does question Fiorina's sanity.

 

Overall + Debate: +8. With modest success on the campaign trail and a strong debate night, Fiorina continues to gather momentum as the ultimate dark horse of the Republican Primary.

On 4/17/2022 at 11:48 PM, Timur said:

1.Cruz visits New Hampshire. He will promise to abolish the IRS.

2.Cruz promises to end government surveillance by the NSA.

3.Cruz will seek the endorsement of Bob Smith, former Senator of New Hampshire.

New Hampshire: 9. New Hampshire is the Live Free or Die state after all, and voters applaud Ted's proposal for them to live free from the grip of the greedy IRS.

 

NSA: 7. It's not the expected position from Cruz, but it proves to boost Ted's numbers among libertarians and privacy minded voters.

 

Bob Smith: 9. Bob Smith endorses, providing a notable lift to Cruz's New Hampshire campaign.

 

Overall + Debate: +2. Despite a disastrous debate night, Cruz rebounds with success on the trail and the endorsement of Bob Smith.

On 4/18/2022 at 9:31 AM, Hestia said:

1. Chris Christie will appear for a rally in Nashua with Senator Ayotte, calling on voters to turn out for him.

2. Christie will attempt to get an interview with the New Hampshire Union-Leader to be run in the paper before the election.

3. Christie will barnstorm in Manchester to get more people to turn out, speaking about taxes. 

New Hampshire: 1! Christie arrives for his rally to find just one voter there to greet him and Senator Ayotte. For an event all about turnout, the campaign forgot to advertise the rally, causing a media frenzy mocking the disappointing showing. 

 

Union-Leader: 1! Rather than running an interview with Christie, the Union-Leader runs a hit piece, calling Chris Christie, "unprincipled, corrupt, obnoxious, and wrong for New Hampshire."

 

New Hampshire: 2. Chris Christie will speak to a small crowd of nine voters, making for very poor turnout if not as large a debacle as his previous event.

 

Overall + Debate: -18! Chris Christie's campaign completely collapses as New Hampshire arrives, with a poor debate performance and disaster after disaster on the trail.

On 4/20/2022 at 8:08 PM, Kitten said:

Lindsay will campaign in New Hampshire

He talks about cutting taxes

He talks about cutting immigration.

He talks about establishing trade deals with Japan and Australia.

New Hampshire: 7. Graham's message on taxes connects with fiscal conservatives.

 

New Hampshire: 9. Border hawks and nativists not yet committed to Donald find a champion in Graham.

 

New Hampshire: 7. Graham's support for free trade appeals to primary voters.

 

Overall + Debate: +13! Lindsey Graham surges with momentum after a successful debate performance and strong time on the trail.

On 4/22/2022 at 2:05 PM, Fbarbarossa said:

Donald will decide to go all in on New Hampshire! He will announce a grand tour of the state beginning with a rally on tariffs.

The tour will continue as Trump continues to truck the New Hampshire and holds a rally on his immigration views!

Finally the orange streak tour will conclude with a fiery rally where Trump will attack all other candidates while spouting his own platform.

New Hampshire: 4. Donald's rally is less attended than expected.

 

New Hampshire: 7. However, people do turn out for Donald's strong rhetoric on immigration.

 

New Hampshire: 8. Donald's tour ends well, with Trump giving a fiery condemnation of his rivals to a large and cheering crowd.

 

Overall + Debate: +1. While Donald's New Hampshire tour does find success, it's weighed down by his poor performance on the debate stage, making for an only minorly successful week.

On 4/22/2022 at 2:34 PM, Rodja said:

1.Dr.Carson will seek an endorsement from GOP gubernatorial NH nominee Chris Sununu,offering his support in governor race in return.

2.Dr.Carson will campaign throughout NH focusing on tax cuts message.

3.Carson campaign will launch series of ads drawing comparisions between himself and Ronald Reaan throughout the country, 

Sununu: 1! Rather than endorse Carson, Sununu will choose to attack him, calling Carson, "inexperienced and totally unprepared for the General Election or to be President."

 

New Hampshire: 4. Carson will seem unenthusiastic, at times tired while campaigning in New Hampshire, turning voters away from his campaign.

 

Ads: 5. The ads are overly generic, failing to move the needle for Carson while not doing any notable damage.

 

Overall + Debate: +1. Despite his strong debate performance, Carson barely maintains any momentum this week with struggles on the trail.

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2016 New Hampshire Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 310,369 votes

 

Jeb! Bush - 63,298 votes - 20.39% - 5 delegates

 

Donald Trump - 54,432 votes - 17.54% - 4 delegates

 

Ted Cruz: 50,503 votes - 16.27% - 4 delegates

 

Chris Christie: 42,029 votes - 13.54% - 3 delegates

 

Ben Carson: 35,998 votes - 11.60% - 3 delegates

 

Carly Fiorina: 32,871 votes - 10.59% - 2 delegates

 

Lindsey Graham: 31,238 votes - 10.07% - 2 delegates

 

Turnout Rolls:

Graham: 10!

Bush: 9.

Fiorina: 8.

Christie: 8.

Cruz: 6.

Trump: 5.

Carson: 1!

 

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