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Quickshot 2016 - Republican Primary


The Blood

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FINAL TURN UNTIL SOUTH CAROLINA! *

 

(*We're adding an extra two days to this turn to get there)

 

National GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 12th, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 25%(-1)

 

Donald Trump: 21%(-1)

 

Jeb! Bush: 18%(+6)

 

 Ben Carson: 17%(-2)

 

Carly Fiorina: 10%(+3)

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%(+4)

 

  

 

South Carolina GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 12th, 2016: 

Cruz: 26%(-1)

 

Bush: 20%(+6)

 

Carson: 18%(-2)

 

Trump: 16%(-1)

 

Fiorina: 11%(+3)

 

Graham: 9%(+4)

 

 

Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - February 12th 2016: 

Cruz: 26%(-1)

 

Trump: 24%(-1)

 

Bush: 17%(+6)

 

Carson: 14%(-2)

 

Fiorina: 11%(+3)

 

Graham: 8%(+4)

 

(I just applied the national swing for this turn to SC and NV. No events were done in either state, and I don't believe there's a compelling reason for any changes to the swings statewide)

 

Edited by The Blood
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1.Ted Cruz will meet with African-Americans in South Carolina again.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign among evangelical voters, visiting church after church in South Carolina. He promises to fight Socialism, Communism, and radical Islam. He talks about social issues. He promises to help Christians in the Middle East. He also promises to nominate justices to the Supreme Court who will interpret the Constitution according to the original intent.

3.Ted Cruz will seek the endorsement of Tim Scott.

Edited by Timur
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Graham will go all in South Carolina

He'll meet voters in rural counties.

He'll take about what he'll do as president. Tax cuts and defense spending.

He'll meet a individual named Pringles in the steam community and visit their home.

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4 hours ago, Kitten said:

He'll meet a individual named Pringles in the steam community and visit their home.

😍 Based.

 

Edited by Pringles
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Fiorina will tour around South Carolina with town halls, including one set up on top of the home of a forum user named "Pringles"

Fiorina will make a speech in Paradise, Nevada about taxation and economics.

Fiorina will continue to challenge Trump to her requested fencing duel, this time requesting it to be hosted inside of TD Arena in Charleston, SC.

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1 hour ago, mark2 said:

Fiorina will tour around South Carolina with town halls, including one set up on top of the home of a forum user named "Pringles"

Fiorina giving a town hall on my roof. Based. 

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  1. Bush will go to South Carolina, where he meets with Nikki Haley, looking to get an endorsement from the popular Govnuh of the state.
  2. Bush will then make an ad on the internet, where he dabs and flips a water bottle.
  3. Bush holds a rally in Las Vegas
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2 hours ago, mark2 said:

Fiorina will tour around South Carolina with town halls, including one set up on top of the home of a forum user named "Pringles"

Fiorina will make a speech in Paradise, Nevada about taxation and economics.

Fiorina will continue to challenge Trump to her requested fencing duel, this time requesting it to be hosted inside of TD Arena in Charleston, SC.

You know, in the other RP where I was doing Gravel, I was planning to have him have a conversation online with a certain user called "Mishfox."

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Trump will make an appearance in South Carolina where he will attack illegal immigration.

Trump will move to Nevada where he will hit 17 different casinos in one night. Never before been done.

Trump will then go to more rural areas of Nevada as well as visit with Mormons and present himself as the candidate of Christian values

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1. Ben Carson heads to South Carolina barnstorming the lowcountry. Hitting Charleston, all the way to Columbia. 

2. Carson heads up to Greenville for an event with multiple Conservative interest groups. 

3. Carson seeks the endorsement of some political nerd in upstate SC. He goes by the alias of Pringles or "Prongle." Thinks he might be an asset to the campaign by providing some big bucks and points with the conservative youth vote. 

Fillin in for my boy Rodja this turn

 

Edited by Pringles
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South Carolina Republican Debate:

Facing off in Greenville, South Carolina, the Republican candidates for President engaged in a heated debate in the leadup to the South Carolina primary. The debate, noted for its brutal nature, once again proved that candidates will go to their lowest competing in the Palmetto State. Here is how the night went.

 

Donald Trump(10,10,10): +11. Donald Trump was universally hailed as the winner of the debate, delivering an excellent performance on stage not yet seen in the campaign. He would receive a thunderous applause from the audience asking voters to just "c'mon" and vote for him. Donald would then deliver a killer attack on Ted Cruz, calling him "a lying Canadian" whose dad and family are "so Canadian they're probably cousins to Justin Trudeau". Trump would close the night with an excellent appeal to the hardliners of the Republican Party, furthering his strength with the hard-right of the party. While Trump would suffer from an attack by Ted Cruz, overall the night was a great and needed one for the campaign.

 

Ben Carson(3,9,7): +4. Ben Carson, while falling far behind the performance of Trump, still delivered an acceptably strong night on stage. He would start off poorly, stumbling through his opening statement while incessantly looking back at his notes to remember his speech declaring himself the sensible outsider of the field. Carson would quickly recover, however, taking aim at Ted Cruz with a heavy-hitter attack, declaring the frontrunner to be disloyal to both his constituents and the conservative movement, asking for voters to turn away from Ted at the ballot box. To close, Ben would deliver a modestly successful appeal to South Carolina conservatives, closing an overall strong night for the candidate.

 

Lindsey Graham(4,3,7): -1. While staying out of the headlines for the night, Lindsey Graham failed to deliver a successful performance on the debate stage, instead giving a middling performance forgotten by most voters. Graham would start off by timidly going through his expansive plans for cutting taxes, boring voters with his wonkery rather than impressing them. Then Graham would accidently declare that he's a "real Nor-South Carolinian" attempting to appeal to his home state, with the gaffe only hurting his chances among his unsupportive constituents. However, Graham would prevent a total failure of a night by attacking Ted Cruz to modest success, calling Cruz unelectable and a "poor character" to represent the Republican Party. Overall, an underwhelming and unsuccessful night for Graham.

 

Jeb! Bush(3,1,9): -3. Jeb! Bush begins the list of media-ordained "losers" of the night, coming in with a poor though not disastrous finish. Bush would start off with a strange and mocked declaration that he's the "next Goldwater", with many in the media questioning if Bush meant someone else such as Reagan, and not the infamous landslide loser of Republican nominee history. However, Bush's worst moment of the night would be attacking Ted Cruz, calling him a "little shrimpy shrimp" in a failed attack on the frontrunner. To make it worse, as the audience laughed at Bush for his absurd attack, Bush would believe they were laughing with him, declaring, "Yeah, let's laugh at the shrimpy shrimp!" Bush would only somewhat recover with a strong appeal to the South, turning the debate from a disaster into simply a poor night for the candidate.

 

Ted Cruz(9,4,9): -4. Ted Cruz ended the night with a poor performance, succumbing not to weakness in delivering his prepared remarks, but to an onslaught of attacks. Cruz would start off strong, promising to fight crime and reform the criminal justice system with a surprising passion. And while Cruz would then awkwardly appeal to minorities, he would continue his strong performance by attacking Trump, calling Donald a clown unfit and unworthy for office. However, under heavy assault from both Trump and Carson, and less severe assault from Graham, Cruz would not hold up under the pressure, failing to respond to and manage the attacks he faced on stage. Thus, Cruz ended the debate knowing he had delivered a weak performance, though buoyed by his strength early in the night.

 

Carly Fiorina(10,1,1): -5. Carly Fiorina, despite being ignored by the other candidates, still found herself with the weakest performance of the night. She would start off excellently, with a passionate opening message describing how she knows "many failed abortions" and will value every life as President, including the lives of the unborn. However, the night would quickly take a turn, as Fiorina attempted to attack Ted Cruz's history of lying with a lie. Fiorina would tear into Cruz for "lying about punching Mitch McConnell's wife", with Cruz simply looking at Carly confused, rejecting that such an incident ever happened. The moderators would intervene, saying no record of such an event exists, with Carly refusing to accept their interjection, continuing to claim Ted Cruz punched Mitch McConnell's wife in a bizarre few minutes of the debate. Fiorina would then move on to appeal to Chris Christie's former supporters, declaring that she, "feels for those who have just lost a candidate in Bob Christie" in an embarrassing gaffe. While not a complete disaster, the night was certainly not pleasant for Carly.

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On 4/25/2022 at 9:14 AM, Timur said:

1.Ted Cruz will meet with African-Americans in South Carolina again.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign among evangelical voters, visiting church after church in South Carolina. He promises to fight Socialism, Communism, and radical Islam. He talks about social issues. He promises to help Christians in the Middle East. He also promises to nominate justices to the Supreme Court who will interpret the Constitution according to the original intent.

3.Ted Cruz will seek the endorsement of Tim Scott.

South Carolina: 3. Cruz is less successful with the African American community this time around, coming off as awkward and unaware to the issues facing the community.

 

South Carolina: 8. Evangelicals are the core of Cruz's coalition and continue to be receptive to his campaign as Cruz works for their votes in the leadup to the primary.

 

Tim Scott: 10! Tim Scott enthusiastically endorses, providing a major boost to Cruz's South Carolina campaign.

 

Overall + Debate: +2. Cruz's poor debate performance is washed away with major successes on the trail, most notably the endorsement of Tim Scott, though Cruz fails to develop significant momentum.

On 4/25/2022 at 12:23 PM, Kitten said:

Graham will go all in South Carolina

He'll meet voters in rural counties.

He'll take about what he'll do as president. Tax cuts and defense spending.

He'll meet a individual named Pringles in the steam community and visit their home.

South Carolina: 3. Graham comes off as out-of-touch while campaigning in rural South Carolina, turning away some voters.

 

South Carolina: 7. Cutting taxes and raising defense spending are both policies Republicans voters are receptive to, boosting Graham's campaign.

 

South Carolina: 7. Many find Graham's visit to be endearing, and the young gamer Pringles gives an enthusiastic endorsement of his campaign.

 

Overall + Debate: +1. With a middling debate performance and off-and-on success on the trail, Graham heads into South Carolina with only minor momentum backing him up.

On 4/28/2022 at 11:07 AM, mark2 said:

Fiorina will tour around South Carolina with town halls, including one set up on top of the home of a forum user named "Pringles"

Fiorina will make a speech in Paradise, Nevada about taxation and economics.

Fiorina will continue to challenge Trump to her requested fencing duel, this time requesting it to be hosted inside of TD Arena in Charleston, SC.

South Carolina: 2. Pringles will refuse to allow Fiorina to campaign on top of his home, calling her campaign "gay" and saying he's a full-on Graham supporter.

 

Nevada: 8. Fiorina does well in Paradise, inspiring voters with her deep understanding of the economy and taxation.

 

South Carolina: 2. Trump once again doesn't respond, and a NYTs frontpage opinion calls for all Presidential candidates to receive a mental evaluation in reference to Fiorina.

 

Overall + Debate: -8. Fiorina's campaign suffers with failures on the trail and a losing debate performance, with the candidate facing a downturn in momentum heading into South Carolina.

On 4/28/2022 at 12:59 PM, Rezi said:
  1. Bush will go to South Carolina, where he meets with Nikki Haley, looking to get an endorsement from the popular Govnuh of the state.
  2. Bush will then make an ad on the internet, where he dabs and flips a water bottle.
  3. Bush holds a rally in Las Vegas

Nikki Haley: 2. Nikki Haley will outright refuse Jeb!'s appeal, openly stating to the media that she's "unexcited" by his campaign.

 

Internet Ad: 3. The ad is mocked in the press, and many of the people it appeals to aren't old enough to vote.

 

Nevada: 8. The rally is well-attended, with Jeb! giving off an inspiring and confident energy on stage.

 

Overall + Debate: -5. Jeb! struggles in the leadup to the South Carolina primary, facing disparaging comments from Nikki Haley and a poor debate performance as the Palmetto State's vote arrives.

On 5/1/2022 at 6:22 PM, Fbarbarossa said:

Trump will make an appearance in South Carolina where he will attack illegal immigration.

Trump will move to Nevada where he will hit 17 different casinos in one night. Never before been done.

Trump will then go to more rural areas of Nevada as well as visit with Mormons and present himself as the candidate of Christian values

South Carolina: 9. Trump riles up his base of nativists attacking illegal immigration, with many confident he will build the wall and shut out the illegals as President.

 

Nevada: 2. Trump becomes visibly exhausted and overwhelmed during his casino tour, only making it 7 casinos through before giving up.

 

Nevada: 4. Few believe Trump, and some Mormons are offended by his unserious attitude towards religion.

 

Overall + Debate: +11. Despite a mix of success and failure on the campaign trail, Trump's winning debate performance carries his campaign forward with strong momentum heading into South Carolina.

4 hours ago, Pringles said:

1. Ben Carson heads to South Carolina barnstorming the lowcountry. Hitting Charleston, all the way to Columbia. 

2. Carson heads up to Greenville for an event with multiple Conservative interest groups. 

3. Carson seeks the endorsement of some political nerd in upstate SC. He goes by the alias of Pringles or "Prongle." Thinks he might be an asset to the campaign by providing some big bucks and points with the conservative youth vote. 

Fillin in for my boy Rodja this turn

 

South Carolina: 5. Ben Carson does acceptably in the lowcountry, failing to convert many voters but suffering no notable blunders on the trail.

 

South Carolina: 8. The event goes well, with Carson building his support among movement conservatives.

 

South Carolina: 9. Pringles, while originally a Graham support, will give his full support to Carson, saying, "Graham's cool I guess, but Carson's better." The change of allegiance will be reported even in national media.

 

Overall + Debate: +11. While he wasn't as exciting on the debate stage, Carson surges forward in a similar fashion as Trump, with a solid debate performance and strong success on the trail.

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2016 South Carolina Republican Primary Results:

 

Total Votes: 744,622 votes

 

Ted Cruz: 190,017 votes - 25.52% - 44 delegates

 

Donald Trump: 159,724 votes - 21.45% - 6 delegates(from Congressional District wins)

 

Ben Carson: 143,598 votes - 19.28%

 

Jeb! Bush: 127,792 votes - 17.16%

 

Lindsey Graham: 78,998 votes - 10.61%

 

Carly Fiorina: 44,493 votes - 5.98%

 

Turnout Rolls:

Graham: 9.

Trump: 9.

Carson: 4.

Jeb!: 4.

Cruz: 3.

Fiorina: 2.

 

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FINAL TURN UNTIL NEVADA!

 

National GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 26%(+1)

 

Donald Trump: 24%(+3)

 

 Ben Carson: 19%(+2)

 

Jeb! Bush: 16%(-2)

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%

 

Carly Fiorina: 7%(-3)

 

 

Nevada GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - February 21st 2016: 

Cruz: 26%

 

Trump: 25%(+1)

 

Bush: 16%(-1)

 

Carson: 16%(+2)

 

Fiorina: 9%(-2) 

 

Graham: 8%

 

 

Alaska GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 35% 

 

Donald Trump: 21% 

 

 Ben Carson: 20% 

 

Jeb! Bush: 9% 

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%

 

Carly Fiorina: 7%

 

 

Alabama GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Donald Trump: 30% 

 

Ted Cruz: 27%

 

 Ben Carson: 20% 

 

Jeb! Bush: 11%

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%

 

Carly Fiorina: 4%

 

 

Arkansas GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 34%

 

Donald Trump: 21%

 

 Ben Carson: 17%

 

Jeb! Bush: 11%

 

Lindsay Graham: 9%

 

Carly Fiorina: 8%

 

 

Georgia GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 28%

 

Donald Trump: 26%

 

 Ben Carson: 18%

 

Jeb! Bush: 13%

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%

 

Carly Fiorina: 7%

 

 

Massachusetts GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Donald Trump: 33%

 

Jeb! Bush: 29%

 

Ted Cruz: 15%

 

Ben Carson: 13%

 

Carly Fiorina: 5%

 

Lindsay Graham: 5%

 

 

Minnesota GOP Presidential Caucus Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 32% 

 

Ben Carson: 22%

 

Jeb! Bush: 17% 

 

Donald Trump: 14%

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%

 

Carly Fiorina: 7%

 

 

Oklahoma GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 38%

 

Ben Carson: 21% 

 

Donald Trump: 17% 

 

Jeb! Bush: 12% 

 

Lindsay Graham: 7%

 

Carly Fiorina: 5%

 

 

Tennessee GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 28%

 

Donald Trump: 27%

 

Ben Carson: 18%

 

Jeb! Bush: 12%

 

Lindsay Graham: 9%

 

Carly Fiorina: 6%

 

 

Texas GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Ted Cruz: 47% 

 

Donald Trump: 17% 

 

Ben Carson: 15%

 

Jeb! Bush: 12%

 

Lindsay Graham: 5%

 

Carly Fiorina: 4%

 

 

Vermont GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Jeb! Bush: 35% 

 

Donald Trump: 19% 

 

Ben Carson: 17% 

 

Ted Cruz: 14% 

 

Carly Fiorina: 8%

 

Lindsay Graham: 7%

 

 

Virginia GOP Presidential Primary Polling - February 21st, 2016:

Donald Trump: 22% 

 

Ted Cruz: 22%

 

Ben Carson: 20% 

 

Jeb! Bush: 20% 

 

Carly Fiorina: 8%

 

Lindsay Graham: 8%

 

 

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1.Ted Cruz will campaign in Nevada.

2.Ted Cruz will campaign in Alabama.

3.Ted Cruz will campaign in Virginia.

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Trump will again roll through Nevada and and unleash an attack on "Trudeau Ted"

Trump will them move south to Tennessee where he will unleash a swathe of attacks on illegal immigration

Lastly he will head to the so called home state of Trudeau Ted and appeal to Texans to vote for an American not a slimy greaseball career politician who wasn't even born in the US

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