Who wins 2022 US Senate Races?

[vcczar]

New Senate poll. 

It's going to be close as to who controls the US Senate. I think Dems keep it 50-50 or even 51-49 if Biden can raise his approval just a little more than it is today. I think the election were today, the GOP would take control. 

[vcczar]

I have Barnes, Beasley, and Warnock losing even if things improve slightly for Biden by November. It's a shame because they're all people who would win if Trump were president right now, I think. 

Tim Ryan and Val Demings are great candidates facing impossible races, I think. 

I think Fetterman beats any GOPer. He's one of those Sanders Democrats that some RW populists like for some reason. 

[ShortKing]

I think Walker just has too much baggage, even if Georgia should be the easiest state to flip this November. I think McCormick has the resources and an inoffensive enough campaign to ride a Biden backlash over the finish line, and a new Reno-Gazette/Suffolk poll dropped today that had CCM losing to both Laxalt (40%-43%) and Sam Brown (39%-40%), so I think Nevada's got a good shot at flipping.

[Hestia]

4 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

I think Walker just has too much baggage, even if Georgia should be the easiest state to flip this November. I think McCormick has the resources and an inoffensive enough campaign to ride a Biden backlash over the finish line, and a new Reno-Gazette/Suffolk poll dropped today that had CCM losing to both Laxalt (40%-43%) and Sam Brown (39%-40%), so I think Nevada's got a good shot at flipping.

I agree with a lot of this. I just do think the Nevada Democratic Party is a force to be reckoned with most times (even with their civil war). The party infrastructure Reed built is still intact. 

[Edouard]

This poll actually shows where the closest competition are, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada

But it's 2 incumbent D vs 1 incumbent R.

Edited July 19, 2022 by Edouard

[jvikings1]

For Alaska, a Gross candidacy would greatly change the race (because he’d have an excellent shot of beating out Murkowski for 2nd). However, I do not believe he is going to run, which means Murkowski has the advantage (though not a guarantee).

Colorado and New Hampshire could be potential pickups with the current environment if there were solid R candidates. But the current leaders do not stand out.

[Hestia]

15 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

For Alaska, a Gross candidacy would greatly change the race (because he’d have an excellent shot of beating out Murkowski for 2nd). However, I do not believe he is going to run, which means Murkowski has the advantage (though not a guarantee).

 

I believe he may be running for House? 

[jvikings1]

Just now, Hestia said:

I believe he may be running for House? 

That is what I thought as well

[Rezi]

49 minutes ago, Hestia said:

I believe he may be running for House? 

And he polls surprisingly well against Palin. Tbh, if this was a Dem wave year, I might think that Gross would have a chance in that election.

[ConservativeElector2]

AZ, MO, NC, OH and PA have interesting Republican primaries.

In AZ I'd vote for Brnovich in the primary. No Trump endorsement so far.

PA Sen is probably the most exciting primary. All candidates have their flaws, but I would vote for David McCormick. I think he would be able to recapitulate the Youngkin strategy. Trump has endorsed Dr. Oz. I am curious how this will play out. 

In MO ''anyone but Greitens'' is my motto. I think Hartzler or Schmitt are the best picks. I don't really have a favorite tho. No Trump endorsement as well to my knowledge.

In NC I'd vote for Pat McCrory. Trump has endorsed Ted Budd.

In OH I haven't really a favorite as well. Maybe I would vote for Matt Dolan. No Trump endorsement so far.

[Zenobiyl]

Some primary changes

MO: Either Hartzler or Greitens, R win regardless but Greitens makes it close.

OH: Vance wins, Mandel is supremely unlikable and Gibbons is a gaffe machine. The other candidates are no-names, uncharismatic, or Matt Dolan.

PA: Oz carries it with the Trump endorsement.

 

[jvikings1]

3 hours ago, Zenobiyl said:

OH: Vance wins, Mandel is supremely unlikable and Gibbons is a gaffe machine. The other candidates are no-names, uncharismatic, or Matt Dolan.

Vance has issues with his comments about Trump for 2016 and the likelihood that he didn't vote Republican during that election.

[ConservativeElector2]

No matter what

Bearded Vance > No beard Vance

That had to be said!

[Zenobiyl]

18 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Vance has issues with his comments about Trump for 2016 and the likelihood that he didn't vote Republican during that election.

Even trump doesn’t hold that against him, he asked club for growth to stop airing ads attacking Vance over his past never-trumpism. Vance has repudiated those comments and is a pro-Trump populist conservative now, and against the mountain of stupid shit his opponents do every week on the campaign trail I think some 5+ years old statements on Twitter will seem pretty minor to the GOP voters in the state.

[ShortKing]

The issue with Vance and why I think he's failed to catch on thus far is he's too brazenly calculating. He pretty abruptly went from Never Trumper to MAGA diehard, but even on the issues, his first reaction to Ukraine was "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another" (verbatim quote), and then he put out a lengthy statement that begins with how Russia's assault is unquestionably a tragedy, especially for the innocent people caught in the crossfire. Anything could happen, most primary voters are still undecided, I don't have a prediction who ends up being the nominee, but I would be surprised if voters end up nominating someone like JD Vance.

[jvikings1]

7 minutes ago, Zenobiyl said:

Even trump doesn’t hold that against him, he asked club for growth to stop airing ads attacking Vance over his past never-trumpism. Vance has repudiated those comments and is a pro-Trump populist conservative now, and against the mountain of stupid shit his opponents do every week on the campaign trail I think some 5+ years old statements on Twitter will seem pretty minor to the GOP voters in the state.

His opposing candidates have jumped on that attack, and it is working from what I have been seeing. Even the grassroots conservative groups in central Ohio can't stand him. Now he could pull it out if Mandel and Gibbons sink each other, but it won't be easy with less than a month before the primary.

2 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

The issue with Vance and why I think he's failed to catch on thus far is he's too brazenly calculating. He pretty abruptly went from Never Trumper to MAGA diehard, but even on the issues, his first reaction to Ukraine was "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another" (verbatim quote), and then he put out a lengthy statement that begins with how Russia's assault is unquestionably a tragedy, especially for the innocent people caught in the crossfire. Anything could happen, most primary voters are still undecided, I don't have a prediction who ends up being the nominee, but I would be surprised if voters end up nominating someone like JD Vance.

Agreed. The undecides make this race a wildcard (which makes it impossible to predict one way or another, though I feel confident that Dolan won't be the nominee).

[Timur]

I want to see how many votes Santa Claus gets in the Alaska House election.

 

[Rezi]

5 hours ago, Patine said:

Far more write-in, Third Party, and Independent votes all around are what's needed. In fact, far more of such candidates really need to win. The two major complacency, electorally, is one of the biggest reasons for their lack accountability and transparency, and the lack of consequences their members in Government suffer, criminally and civilly, for crimes and transgressions committed in office. If it seemed much more likely than an election might not be won by EITHER major party, or at least they couldn't dominate Congress outright and have a EC result that was an not outright majority of EV's for one ticket, the two major parties may not continue to be so smug and cavalier with how they dealt with, and viewed their people - and their own internal conduct.

If you want the death of the duopoly, Alaska is a good place to start. They already have an independent streak going back a while, and on top of that they got rid of FPTP last year.

[Zenobiyl]

16 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

His opposing candidates have jumped on that attack, and it is working from what I have been seeing. Even the grassroots conservative groups in central Ohio can't stand him. Now he could pull it out if Mandel and Gibbons sink each other, but it won't be easy with less than a month before the primary.

Agreed. The undecides make this race a wildcard (which makes it impossible to predict one way or another, though I feel confident that Dolan won't be the nominee).

Mandel didn’t do himself any favors with that embarrassing moment at the Freedom-works debate, and Gibbons sinks himself every time he opens his mouth.

16 hours ago, ShortKing said:

The issue with Vance and why I think he's failed to catch on thus far is he's too brazenly calculating. He pretty abruptly went from Never Trumper to MAGA diehard, but even on the issues, his first reaction to Ukraine was "I gotta be honest with you, I don't really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another" (verbatim quote), and then he put out a lengthy statement that begins with how Russia's assault is unquestionably a tragedy, especially for the innocent people caught in the crossfire. Anything could happen, most primary voters are still undecided, I don't have a prediction who ends up being the nominee, but I would be surprised if voters end up nominating someone like JD Vance.

This gaffe was pretty bad for Vance, although he handled it surprisingly well at the debate. Say what you will about him, his foreign policy stance is genuinely unique in a field filled with traditional interventionists, and that could be an edge. 

[MrPotatoTed]

Even though I don’t agree with his specific political point of view, Fetterman is a slam dunk in my mind.  As a former (and soon to be current again!) Pennsylvanian, Fetterman’s looks and mannerisms are deeply appealing to Pennsylvanian Republicans.  He looks like a guy you’d work with at the steel mill and then go get an iron city with.  He’s going to win by a significant margin.

[Rezi]

Just now, MrPotatoTed said:

Even though I don’t agree with his specific political point of view, Fetterman is a slam dunk in my mind.  As a former (and soon to be current again!) Pennsylvanian, Fetterman’s looks and mannerisms are deeply appealing to Pennsylvanian Republicans.  He looks like a guy you’d work with at the steel mill and then go get an iron city with.  He’s going to win by a significant margin.

I love Fetterman, but my only worry with him is the political environment. If this was a good environment for Dems, or even a neutral environment, I'd have the utmost trust that Fetterman would sweep and start his career as a 3-term Senator. But this just isn't a good environment. I hope I'm wrong and Fetterman can pull it off but I just don't have much confidence in any swing state Dems right now. It's also yet to be seen how much his scandal (which I think is overblown, the guy even endorsed Fetterman!) will dampen turnout among urban dem voters. Connor Lamb has been hammering him on it and running a very negative anti-Fetterman campaign.

[jvikings1]

Major update from Ohio (which does change things A LOT): Trump is leaning towards a JD Vance endorsement. This is something that will actually help Vance fight back against the attacks which have been holding him back to this point.

 

Trump reportedly expected to endorse JD Vance in Ohio Senate race (yahoo.com)

[ConservativeElector2]

12 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Major update from Ohio (which does change things A LOT): Trump is leaning towards a JD Vance endorsement. This is something that will actually help Vance fight back against the attacks which have been holding him back to this point.

 

Trump reportedly expected to endorse JD Vance in Ohio Senate race (yahoo.com)

Like in many other states all candidates seem to have their flaws. Maybe Vance is really the one who is most likely able to win. I don't know.

[Timur]

Well, I'm rooting for Gibbons to prevent Mandel or Vance from taking the nomination.

[jvikings1]

12 minutes ago, Patine said:

 

 

 

 

 

I actually looked up this Vance guy, as he seems a bit divisive. Strangely, Wikipedia doesn't state his exact and specific platform and views. It says he's a, "Conservative commentator who could be considered a populist conservative," but that, alone, in and of itself, doesn't say much, specifically, in American politics, anymore. Otherwise, it only says who backs him. No specific platform or policies, as I said, curiously enough.

IMO, he is a political opportunist who is using the Trump/populist trend to get elected to office