Overturning Roe

[jnewt]

Since somehow no one else has started this thread: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473

[Hestia]

I think we were all avoiding being the first 😛 

[Pringles]

Just now, Hestia said:

I think we were all avoiding being the first 😛 

Amen... 😛 

[Hestia]

10 minutes ago, jnewt said:

Since somehow no one else has started this thread: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/02/supreme-court-abortion-draft-opinion-00029473

I'll just do macro thoughts, trying not to get too into the nitty gritty details 😄 

1) Very likely this appears to be true as-is. I don't think any reporter would dare report on it if they weren't absolute on the source. 

2) Also likely that the wording could be changed before the actual opinion is released. Which leads into...

3) Whoever released it is hoping to torpedo it by way of a public pressure campaign. Whoever they're trying to get (imo Kavanaugh) will be the focus of this scrutiny.

4) I don't like to talk about the political aspect of this because it seems...disingenuous to me, but this will have a huge impact on the midterms. My brain says this pulls Democrats into the fight, but honestly, it could really go either way. 

[jnewt]

16 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Whoever released it is hoping to torpedo it by way of a public pressure campaign

I agree that this is the hope, but I would think it may have the opposite effect. The Court doesn't want to appear as if it will bend to popular public opinion whenever there's a backlash to a decision (Not that that could happen again without there being similar leaks with future cases).

[ShortKing]

I honestly couldn't tell you who leaked it or why, it's a draft from early February being released now, and I don't know who that helps. There are some on twitter theorizing it was a Sotomayor clerk (calls out the clerk by name with little evidence backing up their allegation, which seems incredibly reckless) and there are some theorizing it was a conservative who leaked it in an attempt to freeze the five votes currently in favor of overturning Roe so that they don't lose their majority. There are also clearly internal dynamics at play that we can't know now or maybe ever, but a leak like this from the Supreme Court is unprecedented and saddening to see. Whatever you think of the potential ruling, playing games like this not only seem counterproductive, they also undermine the legitimacy of the Supreme Court and will only deepen the tensions on an already highly contentious issue.

[ConservativeElector2]

1 hour ago, ShortKing said:

...but a leak like this from the Supreme Court is unprecedented and saddening to see. Whatever you think of the potential ruling, playing games like this not only seem counterproductive, they also undermine the legitimacy of the Supreme Court and will only deepen the tensions on an already highly contentious issue.

Agreed!

[Hestia]

 

ok welp I thought they wouldn't comment at all

[Hestia]

Here is the official response by Roberts. 

[jvikings1]

I assume it is a rogue clerk. As much as I disagree with some justices, I don't think anyone of them would violate the confidence of the court like this. And if they find that clerk, he should be barred from ever working as a lawyer and face any other applicable consequences for his actions.

Edited May 3, 2022 by jvikings1

[pilight]

We'll see what the final decision says.

My guess is that the leak was timed to affect congressional primaries.

[vcczar]

If I were Chief Justice Roberts, I'd suspend deliberating on this case until next session in light of this. Once things cool down, they can bring it back up. 

[jvikings1]

44 minutes ago, vcczar said:

If I were Chief Justice Roberts, I'd suspend deliberating on this case until next session in light of this. Once things cool down, they can bring it back up. 

That would only motivate more leaks down the road from people who want to stall cases. A very bad precedent.

[Rezi]

“Mark my word, if and when these preachers get control of the [Republican] party, and they're sure trying to do so, it's going to be a terrible damn problem. Frankly, these people frighten me. Politics and governing demand compromise. But these Christians believe they are acting in the name of God, so they can't and won't compromise. I know, I've tried to deal with them.”

-Barry Goldwater

[DakotaHale]

I think this will majorly help Democrats in midterms, and was probably the intention of the leak

[Hestia]

16 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

I think this will majorly help Democrats in midterms, and was probably the intention of the leak

I did see that the potential reason could've also been to freeze the opinion as-is rather than watering it down. It does help Dems in the midterms, but it would've had the same effect if it came out in June, which is why I'm a little partial to that scenario. 

[pilight]

The reaction to this draft underlines what I've said many times before: People care about results more than process. Lots of people have excused Roe's twisted reasoning because they prefer legalized abortion.  It goes the other way too. Plenty of people accept the absurdity of Pierson v Ray and Harlow v Fitzgerald because they think qualified immunity for cops should exist.

Jimmy Carter took office with supermajorities in both houses of congress. The Democrats could have passed federal legislation that would have taken this issue out of the courts for good while the decision was still fresh. Instead they let it rest on a paper thin SCOTUS majority that was a godsend for Republican fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts for decades and ultimately collapsed because Ruth Bader Ginsburg didn't know when to retire.

[ShortKing]

9 hours ago, pilight said:

The reaction to this draft underlines what I've said many times before: People care about results more than process. Lots of people have excused Roe's twisted reasoning because they prefer legalized abortion.  It goes the other way too. Plenty of people accept the absurdity of Pierson v Ray and Harlow v Fitzgerald because they think qualified immunity for cops should exist.

Jimmy Carter took office with supermajorities in both houses of congress. The Democrats could have passed federal legislation that would have taken this issue out of the courts for good while the decision was still fresh. Instead they let it rest on a paper thin SCOTUS majority that was a godsend for Republican fundraising and get-out-the-vote efforts for decades and ultimately collapsed because Ruth Bader Ginsburg didn't know when to retire.

Worth noting that both Obama and Biden both ran on codifying Roe, but neither one ever got around to it. Now it looks like the Senate at least will try to pass something to safeguard abortion access, but this was always something they knew they would have to confront at some point, and pushed off until they couldn't any longer.