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2024 Draft Game


MrPotatoTed
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Inspired by podcasts of a similar theme by 538.  

Looking for three players (plus me). 

We'll have a draft of who we think are the politicians most likely to win the Republican and Democrat Presidential nominations in 2024.

Draft positions will be randomly assigned, and we'll have a snake draft (so the person who picks fourth in the 1st round will pick 1st in the 2nd round, etc).

We'll do four rounds for each party.  You can draft whoever you want, but remember the point of the game is to correctly draft the real 2024 Presidential nominee for each party.  You also need to give a brief justification on why you drafted them.

Naturally, we won't know who won until the nominees become official in 2024.  But I'll revive this chat when that time comes, to announce the winners with the following point system:

Party's presidential nominee was your first round draft pick: +1
Party's Presidential nominee was your second round draft pick: +2
Party's Presidential nominee was your third round draft pick: +3
Party's Presidential nominee was your fourth round draft pick: +4

The most likely candidates are obvious but then there's a steep drop off -- that's why I award extra points for getting it right with a sleeper pick in a later round. Ha.

I'll also give a bonus +1 if you happen to draft the party's Vice Presidential nominee, regardless of round.

I'll take the first three volunteers, and will begin the game once all three players are identified.  

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Alright, we’ve got our three (plus me).

We’ll start with the Democrat 2024 nominee.  Rolled a die to determine draft order (will roll again for Republicans when it’s time):

@ShortKing

@Hestia

Me

@Rezi

(snake draft, so Rezi will draft twice in a row, etc)

Action to @ShortKing to make the first draft choice of who will be the real world 2024 Democrat nominee.  (Not an endorsement, just a prediction).

Remember to give your justification!

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My first pick is Joe Biden. He won the 2020 primary because he was seen as the most electable, and if it was hard to win the electability argument against him then, it's harder to see them winning the electability argument against him while he's sitting in the White House. 

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Action to @Hestia for second pick of the draft.

 

(Also, everyone...including non-players...are welcome to weigh in on their thoughts on the picks so far.  But don’t make your own picks unless you’re one of our four players — just let us know what you think of each pick if you’re so inclined.)

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14 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

My first pick is Joe Biden. He won the 2020 primary because he was seen as the most electable, and if it was hard to win the electability argument against him then, it's harder to see them winning the electability argument against him while he's sitting in the White House. 

I agree — no eligible incumbent President has lost his party’s nomination since the modern primary system was created in 1972.  If Biden is alive and wants the nomination, it is surely his for the taking.

Obvious first choice of course — it gets more interesting from here!

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Just now, Hestia said:

I'll take the Veep, Kamala Harris as my first pick! Back to you @MrPotatoTed 🙂

Good pick.  If Biden’s not the nominee, then odds are it’s because he is dead or otherwise incapacitated, making Kamala the incumbent.  
 

And if he is the nominee, then she’s surely the VP, which gives equal points to choosing the President correctly in the first round.  So either way, this pick is a winner.

 

So from here on out, the scenario in my head is that Biden finishes his term, but decides for whatever reason to not run for re-election.  Kamala surely runs, but I don’t think she’s particularly electable.  
 

Given that I expect the Republican nominee to be another dumpster fire of a candidate who is horrifying to moderates and the left alike, I’m going to assume we see another 2020-like election where electability and appeal to never-Trump Republicans wins the day.

 

My pick is Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.  He’s already proven he can win Iowa and come damned close to winning New Hampshire.  He now has many more allies and name recognition, and has made a lot of friends in the Capitol, positive news coverage, recently became the father of twins which helps with family voters.  Military veteran, fluent in many languages which is appealing with current foreign affairs crises, now has national experience due to cabinet position.  Has an uphill battle with black voters maybe, but I don’t think there’s a candidate they coalesce around with Biden out of the race, so it won’t be the roadblock it was last time.

Action to @Rezi to make both the fourth and fifth picks of the draft.

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I think Pete's underrated, his troubles with black voters are a serious concern, but the fact that he went from obscure mayor from Indiana to winning the Iowa Caucuses and being a legitimate frontrunner in a field packed with Senators and Governors and the former Vice President shows he's got some serious political savvy. Plus, even if Kamala goes into 2024 as the incumbent, he's ambitious enough that he might even still run if she seems vulnerable.

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2 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

I think Pete's underrated, his troubles with black voters are a serious concern, but the fact that he went from obscure mayor from Indiana to winning the Iowa Caucuses and being a legitimate frontrunner in a field packed with Senators and Governors and the former Vice President shows he's got some serious political savvy. Plus, even if Kamala goes into 2024 as the incumbent, he's ambitious enough that he might even still run if she seems vulnerable.

I agree with all of the above except I don't think he would challenge Kamala if she were the incumbent.  He's got a bright future for the next 40-50 years, I think he would wait in that scenario.  But if Kamala is not the incumbent, I think he's in.

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With the fourth overall pick in the 2024 Democratic Primary Draft, I am proud to select...

Stacey Abrams. She's not by any means a proven winner, but if she can pull off an upset in Georgia this year, anything is possible.

 

With the fifth overall pick... 

Give me Ro Khanna. In the scenario that Biden isn't running, Ro could easily become the standard bearer of the Progressive movement. He's not quite as left as Bernie or the Squad, but still someone that the movement could get behind, while also being a good speaker and more palatable to Moderates.

 

Back to @MrPotatoTed

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12 minutes ago, Rezi said:

With the fourth overall pick in the 2024 Democratic Primary Draft, I am proud to select...

Stacey Abrams. She's not by any means a proven winner, but if she can pull off an upset in Georgia this year, anything is possible.

 

With the fifth overall pick... 

Give me Ro Khanna. In the scenario that Biden isn't running, Ro could easily become the standard bearer of the Progressive movement. He's not quite as left as Bernie or the Squad, but still someone that the movement could get behind, while also being a good speaker and more palatable to Moderates.

 

Back to @MrPotatoTed

Nice picks! I think Ro has the possibility to do better than Bernie given time. I wonder if Abrams loses the governor's race this year if she'll be able to still gain traction at a national scale, or if she'll make another run for governor in Georgia once again. 

Edited by Hestia
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46 minutes ago, Rezi said:

With the fourth overall pick in the 2024 Democratic Primary Draft, I am proud to select...

Stacey Abrams. She's not by any means a proven winner, but if she can pull off an upset in Georgia this year, anything is possible.

 

With the fifth overall pick... 

Give me Ro Khanna. In the scenario that Biden isn't running, Ro could easily become the standard bearer of the Progressive movement. He's not quite as left as Bernie or the Squad, but still someone that the movement could get behind, while also being a good speaker and more palatable to Moderates.

 

Back to @MrPotatoTed

Stacey's a solid pick -- I think if Biden's not in and Kamala's looking weak, Stacey runs.  Unless she actually wins Georgia -- then I think she recognizes that she needs to stay in Georgia to avoid the party losing that state.

I don't really know Ro Khanna, I've heard the name but couldn't pick him out of a lineup.

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For my second round pick, I choose...Alexandria Ocasio Cortez.  She will be 35 by inauguration day, which makes her eligible for office, she has the name recognition, she likes a battle, Bernie's approximately 300 years old so it's time to name his successor -- she's got Bernie's ideals and Trump's personality.  I think she runs and I think she runs well.  

I don't see any chance of winning the general election, but that's not what the question is, so I'll take AOC.  

Action to @Hestia.

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My next choice is Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). I think she hit her stride at the right time, and has done a lot in the last few years on voting rights, which could endear her to a more diverse base than she was able to reach last time. Her best chance would be in '24 or '28, so I think that she would stand a good chance at winning if she would run. Whether or not she does, could be another thing. 

To @ShortKing!

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1 minute ago, ShortKing said:

I'm a little surprised we drafted Ro Khanna before AOC, she's a good pick, with a national grassroots base.

AOC will never win a national election or primary. Even if I think she's gotten better since being elected, more pragmatic and less of an attack dog, her brand is still way too toxic on the national level. Khanna, on the other hand, is still pretty unknown amongst the public. He's one of the most left-wing members of Congress, but doesn't focus his attacks on Democrats as much as others on his side, and still has a fairly good relationship with the establishment. And while I don't think either AOC or Khanna runs in 2024, I think Khanna is more likely, in the scenario that Biden doesn't run. 

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2 minutes ago, Hestia said:

My next choice is Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). I think she hit her stride at the right time, and has done a lot in the last few years on voting rights, which could endear her to a more diverse base than she was able to reach last time. Her best chance would be in '24 or '28, so I think that she would stand a good chance at winning if she would run. Whether or not she does, could be another thing. 

To @ShortKing!

Bad pick because I hate her.  Haha. ;c)  

I thought she ran an especially weak campaign, I'm consistently surprised to learn she has fans here.  I'd obviously take her over Trump, but if it looked like Democrats would win regardless (or if 3rd party was actually strong), I might explore 3rd party options for the first time in my life.

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6 minutes ago, Hestia said:

My next choice is Senator Amy Klobuchar (D-MN). I think she hit her stride at the right time, and has done a lot in the last few years on voting rights, which could endear her to a more diverse base than she was able to reach last time. Her best chance would be in '24 or '28, so I think that she would stand a good chance at winning if she would run. Whether or not she does, could be another thing. 

To @ShortKing!

I half agree with Ted cause I think this is a bad pick even though I love her. Amy's campaign was never particularly impressive, but she was competitive in the early states, especially New Hampshire. I just think if Biden doesn't run and there comes demand for a moderate candidate, she's gonna run into the same trouble trying to stand out in a crowded field as she did in 2020

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