Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, vcczar said: I updated the biases for every state. Are using those on the Historical Era spreadsheet? WY is a Red +5 for instance. well no I didn't know lols, I'm using the old copy I need to shove into the testing Also how do bonuses work for the new biases, because I need to know for the rules Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 New biases also mean the primaries changed, so I'll have to sim those as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 New things being changed - sims are now paused 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Proposed bonus modifiers to party bias D/R+1, add 4 D/R+2, add 6 D/R+3, add 8 D/R+4, add 10 D/R+5, add 12 The cutoff is now a margin of 4 or more, rather than the previous >6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Flagging @vcczarfor opinions before I continue testing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Arkansas Progressive said: Proposed bonus modifiers to party bias D/R+1, add 4 D/R+2, add 6 D/R+3, add 8 D/R+4, add 10 D/R+5, add 12 That seems way too high. What might is running one election, and then showing a map of how the result would have changed if this single election had +1-5 and +4-12. That might be more convincing for me. I just upped it from 1-3 to 1-5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Just now, vcczar said: That seems way too high. What might is running one election, and then showing a map of how the result would have changed if this single election had +1-5 and +4-12. That might be more convincing for me. I just upped it from 1-3 to 1-5. Your previous pre-bias bonuses were 5, 10, and 15 for +1, +2, and +3 with a cutoff at 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 8 with D+1 was 8+5=13 etc. 8 with D+1 is now 8+4=12 Edited May 17, 2022 by Arkansas Progressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 10 minutes ago, Arkansas Progressive said: Your previous pre-bias bonuses were 5, 10, and 15 for +1, +2, and +3 with a cutoff at 6 Ok, I'm confuses. How is 5, 10, or 15 = +1, +2, and +3? Until I no what you are talking about, I can't make any changes or else I'll screw it all up. In the most concise and simplistic way possible, you need to explain this to me. I really haven't the time for anything super complicated, so I'm inclined to leave it the way I have it until my work load decreases in about 4 weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 (edited) 9 minutes ago, vcczar said: Ok, I'm confuses. How is 5, 10, or 15 = +1, +2, and +3? Until I no what you are talking about, I can't make any changes or else I'll screw it all up. In the most concise and simplistic way possible, you need to explain this to me. I really haven't the time for anything super complicated, so I'm inclined to leave it the way I have it until my work load decreases in about 4 weeks. According to the rules, party bias per state changes the popular vote depending on it's bias +1 bias changes the popular vote out come, if it were more than six points, by an additional five. So if Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Maryland by a score of 8 to 1 then the margin (7) is added by 15, as the state is Blue +3. The final margin for the state's popular vote (and it's influence on the national popular vote). is 7+15= 61% - 39% (+22) My proposed change would only add 10 pts, so it'd be 7+10= 58% - 41% (+17) with 1% leftover. Edited May 17, 2022 by Arkansas Progressive 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Arkansas Progressive said: According to the rules, party bias per state changes the popular vote depending on it's bias +1 bias changes the popular vote out come, if it were more than six points, by an additional five. So if Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Maryland by a score of 8 to 1 then the margin (7) is added by 15, as the state is Blue +3. The final margin for the state's popular vote (and it's influence on the national popular vote). is 7+15= 61% - 39% (+22) My proposed change would only add 10 pts, so it'd be 7+10= 58% - 41% (+17) with 1% leftover. Ok, I might wait until we can do elections on the CPU to fiddle with something like this, as I'll be able to run 100+ tests a day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, vcczar said: Ok, I might wait until we can do elections on the CPU to fiddle with something like this, as I'll be able to run 100+ tests a day. Yea that's fine, doing these sims on sheets is work lols Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Pre die rolls for Buttigieg/Klobuchar v. Trump Pence 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Post die rolls: National Popular vote: Buttigieg/Klobuchar: 49.743% (0.026%) Trump/Pence: 49.717% Others: 0.54% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 In the above, I could have gone with a third party challenger but did not want to add on to the complexity, but I'll likely do it later on before switching the Dems to Bloomberg - who'd be a good running-mate for Bloomberg? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murrman104 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Kinda seems Moderates are a bit strong tbh Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 17, 2022 Author Share Posted May 17, 2022 Just now, Murrman104 said: Kinda seems Moderates are a bit strong tbh It's 2020, Moderates get a +1 in the General after getting a -1 in the primary. Not to mention, Moderates don't have many places where they're the hated ideology, and quite a few where they're the preferred ideology including in leaning R states. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 21, 2022 Author Share Posted May 21, 2022 As promised, the 2020 election with Third Party Ticket Anything not safe is a margin of 1% with tilts being 0.2 POPULAR VOTE 43.18% - Trump/Pence 49.16% - Buttigieg/Klobuchar 6.85% - Sanders/McKinney Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arkansas Progressive Posted May 21, 2022 Author Share Posted May 21, 2022 (edited) ND was as follows: Edited May 21, 2022 by Arkansas Progressive Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 1 hour ago, Arkansas Progressive said: As promised, the 2020 election with Third Party Ticket Anything not safe is a margin of 1% with tilts being 0.2 POPULAR VOTE 43.18% - Trump/Pence 49.16% - Buttigieg/Klobuchar 6.85% - Sanders/McKinney I don't think McKinney would want to be the VP candidate of a Jewish-American. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 3 hours ago, Arkansas Progressive said: As promised, the 2020 election with Third Party Ticket Anything not safe is a margin of 1% with tilts being 0.2 POPULAR VOTE 43.18% - Trump/Pence 49.16% - Buttigieg/Klobuchar 6.85% - Sanders/McKinney Assuming this election was run correctly, feels like a popular blue third-party candidate should have been much more devastating to Blue party. Instead, not only did they get a solid win, but Blue also picked up typically red states. @vcczar Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said: Assuming this election was run correctly, feels like a popular blue third-party candidate should have been much more devastating to Blue party. Instead, not only did they get a solid win, but Blue also picked up typically red states. @vcczar 3rd parties affect the incumbent historically, but I should probably have it also potentially affect the challenging part if the 3rd party springs from that party. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPotatoTed Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 21 minutes ago, vcczar said: 3rd parties affect the incumbent historically, but I should probably have it also potentially affect the challenging part if the 3rd party springs from that party. Yeah, maybe it has a major impact on both their own party and their ideology. So a conservative Blue in 2020 is going to take in roughly even measure from red and blue party. But a Progressive Blue is pretty much just gonna steal blue. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10centjimmy Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said: Yeah, maybe it has a major impact on both their own party and their ideology. So a conservative Blue in 2020 is going to take in roughly even measure from red and blue party. But a Progressive Blue is pretty much just gonna steal blue. See: Nader in 2000 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 32 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said: Yeah, maybe it has a major impact on both their own party and their ideology. So a conservative Blue in 2020 is going to take in roughly even measure from red and blue party. But a Progressive Blue is pretty much just gonna steal blue. Changed it to this: Is the nominee facing a 3rd party that sprung from their “party”? 50% chance -1 party pref for that party in the home region of the 3rd party pres nominee. Expand nationwide if the 3rd party nominee has charisma at 50% chance. Is the nominee facing a 3rd party presidential nominee with the same personal ideology? If so, 50% chance -1 party pref nationwide. Expand to 75% chance if 3rd party pres nom has “charisma.” Is the nominee the incumbent facing a major 3rd party candidate? If so, 50% chance of -1, if party pref is turned away from the incumbent party. The reason for the latter is because historically the major 3rd parties sometimes affect the incumbent party, even when they don't spring from the incumbent party --- Anderson in 1980 and Weaver in 1892 are examples off the top of my head. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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