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Kamala Harris wins despite all odds


Timur
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So, I did a simulation of all racial minority candidates. In the Republican primaries, there were four candidates: Nikki Haley, Dwayne Johnson, Marco Rubio, and Ted Cruz.  Dwayne Johnson won Iowa and probably won the other early contests as well. He also won on Super Tuesday, but Haley won all 8 contests after that. In the end, Haley was nominated.  In the Democratic Primaries, Sanders was the frontrunner, but frontrunners get attacked by everyone, and Bloomberg rose due to his huge amount of money.  Yang won Iowa, AOC won New Hampshire, Steyer won NV, and I don't remember who won SC.  Super Tuesday was a good day for Sanders, O'Rourke, and Bloomberg. Harris also won California and Oklahoma. A bunch of candidates withdrew from the race. Some time after, it was down to Sanders, Bloomberg, and Harris. I did not expect Harris to be the nominee as she was polling at only 12%. However, she kept on winning a lot of the undecideds, and eventually surpassed Bloomberg in the number of delegates. She won states like UT, NY, OR, AK, MD, and PA. After West Virginia, Bloomberg withdrew, and it came down to Sanders and Harris. Sanders won nearly all the remaining contests, though Harris managed to win NJ and win a 71% landslide in MT. (I don't remember who won DC)

The Democratic Convention came and after a brokered convention where several candidates gave their delegates to Sanders, Yang gave his to Bloomberg, who in turn gave them to Harris, who chose Castro as her VP.

Harris was crushing Haley in the polls, but Howard Schultz and Ajamu Baraka had considerable support (which would not be good news for Harris), and Haley racked up endorsements not only Republican organizations, but also from the unions, the New York Times, the Washington Post, Hilary Clinton, and eventually Barack Obama.

Near the end, the race was expected to be close, with Harris having a -6 momentum, while Haley's momentum was OK (I think it was a +2 or 3). Election night came, and despite all the bad luck, Harris managed to win.

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Edited by Timur
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