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Arizona in 2022


vcczar
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Here's Arizona's recent election results. I'm curious as to what your predictions are here. Certainly, the growth of Phoenix and other cities in Arizona are changing the electoral landscape. I also believe Arizona has a higher % of NeverTrump Republicans than other states, probably because Trump routinely attacked both of Arizona's Senators--McCain and Flake--during his presidency. If this is the case, then a non-Trump nominee might outperform a Democrat in the state. 

Democratic gains have been narrow as you can see a lot of light blue here. 

What are your predictions in the governor and senate races? 

2018 2020 2022
N    
Trump Biden Biden
Ducey Ducey  
Kyl/McSally Kelly  
Sinema Sinema Sinema
o'Halleran o'Halleran  
Kirkpatrick Kirkpatrick  
Grijalva Grijalva  
Gosar Gosar  
BIggs BIggs  
Schweikert Schweikert  
Gallego Gallego  
Lesko Lesko  
Stanton Stanton  
Reaction to Trump sees Dems nearly split state politically; first Dem Senate wins since 1988    
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Another state where Republicans should do well this year, but look to be nominating poor candidates, particularly thinking that Kari Lake and Blake Masters would be poor candidates. I still don't know if I can give Dems an edge in the Gubernatorial, given the environment, but I'm willing to give them the slight edge in the Senate due to the perceived strength of Mark Kelly.

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16 minutes ago, Rezi said:

Another state where Republicans should do well this year, but look to be nominating poor candidates, particularly thinking that Kari Lake and Blake Masters would be poor candidates. I still don't know if I can give Dems an edge in the Gubernatorial, given the environment, but I'm willing to give them the slight edge in the Senate due to the perceived strength of Mark Kelly.

Here's my thoughts on Arizona. 

  • I expect O'Halleran to lose his seat, so GOP will have a +1 in the US Rep election here. 
  • I think Kelly wins reelection, but I wouldn't be shocked if he lost.
  • I this the Gov is going to be very close, but I expect the GOP to win it. My only rationale for Dems potentially winning this race is that in the 20th century, you don't really see split ticket voting. If Kelly wins, then the Democratic gov nom wins, is a strong argument. I think if Kelly loses, it's because the Dem nom for Gov also lost, for instance. The only times this seems to not be the case is if one of the noms is extremely controversial or deviant from other members of their party. I don't know if that's going to be the case in Arizona.
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GOP gains 2 House seats (O’Halleran and Kirkpatrick). A 3rd could be in play (Stanton).

GOP hold the governor’s seat in a close race. If Dems had a better candidate this would be susceptible to flip.

Right now, Kelly is probably favored to keep the seat. But the national environment could swing GOP.

Edited by jvikings1
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The governor race is a tossup until the GOP makes it's choice between Kari and Karrin. Kari Lake will lose it imo. 

Senate is going to Kelly. Probably not in the margin polls suggest but in a pretty good fashion I'd say, there's a good bit of Republicans who like him. 

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  • 3 weeks later...
15 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

Masters was unironically my personal favorite candidate in the entire 2022 Senate races, but a horrible candidate for electability

The weird thing is that Masters might be the best of the GOP candidates which is not a complement. The 3 big candidates all have significant shortcomings.

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