vcczar Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Here's Arizona's recent election results. I'm curious as to what your predictions are here. Certainly, the growth of Phoenix and other cities in Arizona are changing the electoral landscape. I also believe Arizona has a higher % of NeverTrump Republicans than other states, probably because Trump routinely attacked both of Arizona's Senators--McCain and Flake--during his presidency. If this is the case, then a non-Trump nominee might outperform a Democrat in the state. Democratic gains have been narrow as you can see a lot of light blue here. What are your predictions in the governor and senate races? 2018 2020 2022 N Trump Biden Biden Ducey Ducey Kyl/McSally Kelly Sinema Sinema Sinema o'Halleran o'Halleran Kirkpatrick Kirkpatrick Grijalva Grijalva Gosar Gosar BIggs BIggs Schweikert Schweikert Gallego Gallego Lesko Lesko Stanton Stanton Reaction to Trump sees Dems nearly split state politically; first Dem Senate wins since 1988 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 Another state where Republicans should do well this year, but look to be nominating poor candidates, particularly thinking that Kari Lake and Blake Masters would be poor candidates. I still don't know if I can give Dems an edge in the Gubernatorial, given the environment, but I'm willing to give them the slight edge in the Senate due to the perceived strength of Mark Kelly. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted July 13, 2022 Author Share Posted July 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, Rezi said: Another state where Republicans should do well this year, but look to be nominating poor candidates, particularly thinking that Kari Lake and Blake Masters would be poor candidates. I still don't know if I can give Dems an edge in the Gubernatorial, given the environment, but I'm willing to give them the slight edge in the Senate due to the perceived strength of Mark Kelly. Here's my thoughts on Arizona. I expect O'Halleran to lose his seat, so GOP will have a +1 in the US Rep election here. I think Kelly wins reelection, but I wouldn't be shocked if he lost. I this the Gov is going to be very close, but I expect the GOP to win it. My only rationale for Dems potentially winning this race is that in the 20th century, you don't really see split ticket voting. If Kelly wins, then the Democratic gov nom wins, is a strong argument. I think if Kelly loses, it's because the Dem nom for Gov also lost, for instance. The only times this seems to not be the case is if one of the noms is extremely controversial or deviant from other members of their party. I don't know if that's going to be the case in Arizona. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 (edited) GOP gains 2 House seats (O’Halleran and Kirkpatrick). A 3rd could be in play (Stanton). GOP hold the governor’s seat in a close race. If Dems had a better candidate this would be susceptible to flip. Right now, Kelly is probably favored to keep the seat. But the national environment could swing GOP. Edited July 13, 2022 by jvikings1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConservativeElector2 Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 (edited) The Gubernatorial election depends absolutely on who the nominee is. If it's Karrin Taylor Robson, who I support, she is going to be next Governor of AZ. If it's Kari Lake we'll see... Edited July 13, 2022 by ConservativeElector2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted July 13, 2022 Share Posted July 13, 2022 The governor race is a tossup until the GOP makes it's choice between Kari and Karrin. Kari Lake will lose it imo. Senate is going to Kelly. Probably not in the margin polls suggest but in a pretty good fashion I'd say, there's a good bit of Republicans who like him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pringles Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Kari Lake made an overnight/morning comeback and it seems now that the ticket for the GE's will be Lake for Gov, Masters for Sen. Both will definitely lose imo. These two on the ballot is a gift to the Democratic Party. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted August 3, 2022 Share Posted August 3, 2022 Kelly has way too much money and popularity to lose to someone like Masters. I think he'll hold and it won't be that close. Maybe a 3% or 4% victory. Lake could get by a bit easier, but I still see her losing by a point or two. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 Masters was unironically my personal favorite candidate in the entire 2022 Senate races, but a horrible candidate for electability Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 15 hours ago, DakotaHale said: Masters was unironically my personal favorite candidate in the entire 2022 Senate races, but a horrible candidate for electability The weird thing is that Masters might be the best of the GOP candidates which is not a complement. The 3 big candidates all have significant shortcomings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaHale Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 6 hours ago, jvikings1 said: The weird thing is that Masters might be the best of the GOP candidates which is not a complement. The 3 big candidates all have significant shortcomings. Who’s the Big 3? Vance Oz and Masters I assume? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 3 hours ago, DakotaHale said: Who’s the Big 3? Vance Oz and Masters I assume? I was referring to Masters, Brnovich, and Lamon (the top 3 GOP options in the race) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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