Florida in 2022

[vcczar]

Any predictions for Florida?

2018	2020	2022
Trump	Trump	Trump
DeSantis	DeSantis
Scott	Scott	Scott
Rubio	Rubio
Gaetz	Gaetz
Dunn	Dunn
Yoho	Cammack
Rutherford	Rutherford
Lawson	Lawson
Waltz	Waltz
Murphy	Murphy
Posey	Posey
Soto	Soto
Demings	Demings
Webster	Webster
Billirakis	Billirakis
Crist	Crist
Castor	Castor
Spano	Franklin
Buchanan	Buchanan
Steube	Steube
Mast	Mast
Rooney	Donalds
Hastings	Hastings
Frankel	Frankel
Deutch	Deutch
Wasserman Schultz	Wasserman Schultz
Wilson	Wilson
Diaz-Balart	Diaz-Balart
Mucarsei-Powell	Gimenez
Shalala	Salazar

[Rezi]

DeSantis+7. His rising national profile and culture war behavior is going to mobilize Dems against him, but he still wins without putting up much of a sweat due to popularity and national environment.

Rubio+12

Edited July 17, 2022 by Rezi

[DakotaHale]

Also worth noting this will be the first election where republicans hold the majority in voter registrations — they already had the edge before, but they definitely do now. DeSantis Rubio hold 

[vcczar]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

But the coffers of the Magic Kingdom are nearly limitless, as is their grasp on the media, and DeSantis has declared war on Mickey Mouse! 😛 

I don't know. Maybe. I'm just surprised the "War on Disney" doesn't get any attention in the media. If it is even discussed anymore, it's in the backpages somewhere. 

[vcczar]

1 minute ago, Patine said:

I think it's likely Disney will bring out it's big endorsements, donations, and PAC;s once the Democrats have a nominee, rather than divisively wading into the Primaries. That's my hunch.

That's possible. 

[jvikings1]

DeSantis and Rubio hold.

GOP flips 3 House seats (Lawson, Crist, and Murphy) and wins the new seat

[DakotaHale]

29 minutes ago, Patine said:

I think it's likely Disney will bring out it's big endorsements, donations, and PAC;s once the Democrats have a nominee, rather than divisively wading into the Primaries. That's my hunch.

Didn’t even think of that. Smart

[jvikings1]

56 minutes ago, Patine said:

No comment on the likely big donations and PAC campaign against DeSantis by Disney? Or are you just going by current polls and trends?

Nope, I don't just go off of the polls and trends. Though it is worth noting that the only polls that have DeSantis down are from the question political matrix and fabrizio lee (Trump's pollster which did a poll for an undisclosed client- probably to hurt a potential DeSantis bid for President).

As for money and PACs, DeSantis will certainly have his own come support him. With his national name ID, he doesn't have to worry about money. Also, Charlie Christ is an atrocious candidate who has already lost 2 statewide elections.

[MrPotatoTed]

13 hours ago, Patine said:

Walt Disney Entertainment will give big donations, fundraising, and SuperPAC's to his Democratic opponent, no doubt. Mark my words. Mickey Mouse will be standing, figuratively, beside their podium.

I used to work for Disney.  I see them trying to stay out of it as much as possible, especially after they were punished for involving themselves previously.  If Disney becomes more actively and publicly political, they lose half their customer base.

[jvikings1]

3 hours ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I used to work for Disney.  I see them trying to stay out of it as much as possible, especially after they were punished for involving themselves previously.  If Disney becomes more actively and publicly political, they lose half their customer base.

See the failure of Lightyear at the box office

[MrPotatoTed]

1 minute ago, jvikings1 said:

See the failure of Lightyear at the box office

Might be.  Honestly, just a weirdly bland concept for a movie.  

[jvikings1]

Just now, MrPotatoTed said:

Might be.  Honestly, just a weirdly bland concept for a movie.  

The recasting of Tim Allen (which many conservatives viewed as retaliation for his views) and the LGBT stuff were major focuses in conservative media which definitely influenced conservative readers/viewers.

[Rezi]

3 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

The recasting of Tim Allen (which many conservatives viewed as retaliation for his views) and the LGBT stuff were major focuses in conservative media which definitely influenced conservative readers/viewers.

I have to ask: Why was the LGBT stuff such a big focus? Like, with the outcry I saw I expected it to be big thing, but it was just a small like 2 second clip?

[MrPotatoTed]

5 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

The recasting of Tim Allen (which many conservatives viewed as retaliation for his views) and the LGBT stuff were major focuses in conservative media which definitely influenced conservative readers/viewers.

No doubt -- but despite loving the first three films and accepting the fourth, I had zero interest in this film regardless of Tim Allen and obviously I'm pro LGBT.  So it's not all politics -- it also was just a bad concept for a movie.  "What if we did a movie where almost none of the characters we know and love appear -- and the only one who does is completely different from what we've seen before and he's not really the same character at all and it's in a different universe and none of the themes apply and..."

[vcczar]

5 minutes ago, Patine said:

I see MrPotatoTed has resorted to Pringles emoji tactics. He's obviously fallen very far...

He's responding to a personal attack, one that could arguably get you in trouble. 

[vcczar]

20 minutes ago, Patine said:

Well, that post is roughly on par with what I commonly endure from him in debates, so he, himself, would be an utter hypocrite to make a report.

I don't think he has ever reported you. The report will come from someone else, possibly within 24 hours. 

[vcczar]

2 minutes ago, Patine said:

So, the old trend is too continue? It's only reportable if I do it? I was hoping hoping those dark days were over. You have disappointed me.

I don't know where you are getting that. I'm saying, I expect someone to report you. I'm in no way saying it is exclusive to you. Here are some things I want to say:

• 50% of reports or more come from you, of which the grand majority are paranoia rather than a legitimate violation. 
• 98% of the reports not coming from you are you being reported, of which I'd say about 75% of them are legitimate violations. 
• 99% of all fights on this forum involve you in some capacity. 
• 0% of the time has @MrPotatoTedreported you. It has often come from observers. 
• Your leading defender is @MrPotatoTed, the person you attack more than anyone. He has saved you from permanent ban multiple times. 
• I think the only remaining moderators are myself and @DakotaHale, and he's probably the only person protecting you from a super-extended ban. 
• Overall, you're walking a very fine line because you attack everyone and you get paranoid that everyone is attacking you. You unintentionally bring the worst out of everyone. You draw out aggressiveness out of people who never show aggressiveness to any other user in this forum. All roads lead to and away from you. Final warning: Stop attacking people--including moderators who have the power to end you on this forum--and ignore people that you think are trying to goad you. 

The question I keep asking myself is, where is the Patine of 2012? That guy was quite pleasant and a friend. He appears dead. Something in 2015 snapped and you seemed to have been more hostile--every increasingly so--since then. Our own occassional aggression is just a reaction to you because we aren't aggressive to each other. Again, all roads lead to and away from you. Change must come from you if you want to stay part of this community. 

 

[MrPotatoTed]

1 hour ago, Patine said:

I see MrPotatoTed has resorted to Pringles emoji tactics. He's obviously fallen very far...

 

50 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I don't think he has ever reported you. The report will come from someone else, possibly within 24 hours. 

Here's the deal, Patine.  I respond with a laughing emoji because I'm literally laughing at how over-the-top your response is.  I said "I don't think Disney will openly back one politician over another" because it's usually bad for business to do so, and they are a business.  I don't actually care, I'm not invested in this, just my prediction based on my knowledge of the company as a former employee.

You responded with personal attacks.  I don't care enough to actually take it personally or report you, I literally laugh it off.  Then you get mad that I'm laughing it off instead of...being mean to you in response? 

Buddy.  I don't care.  

[Pringles]

Man I haven’t talked to Mr. Patine in like 3 months and I’ve reduced a lot of my forum intake. Mainly cause most of us are on discord now, but I come for AMPU or activities Vcczar does.

But holy shit. It’s almost as if when I said the arguing wouldn’t end with me finally blocking and ignoring 100% of comments from 1 user of the forum…. It’s like I was right. 
 

This is a pretty smartassery response but that’s my trademark to some I suppose, but I do think it’s relevant. This is just a general statement I wanted to make. And it’ll be left at that.

[jvikings1]

23 hours ago, Rezi said:

I have to ask: Why was the LGBT stuff such a big focus? Like, with the outcry I saw I expected it to be big thing, but it was just a small like 2 second clip?

Because conservative parents don’t want to take their kids to something that has that kind of content in it, regardless of how small the scene is.

Also, the fact that it was purely political (to protest Florida’s government) didn’t help in this environment.

[MrPotatoTed]

On 7/18/2022 at 11:15 AM, Rezi said:

I have to ask: Why was the LGBT stuff such a big focus? Like, with the outcry I saw I expected it to be big thing, but it was just a small like 2 second clip?

Some people don't like it when LGBT people are confirmed to exist, even in two-second bursts.

[Brunell]

Well, if it's not too late to take a stab, my predictions:

DeSantis vs. Crist: DeSantis 53%, Crist 45%

DeSantis vs. Fried: DeSantis 55%, Fried 42%

 

Rubio v. Demings: Rubio 55%, Demings 41%

I know, I know, double digit wins by both candidates in a state like Florida may seem eyebrow raising, but as someone who used to live there, and still monitors the political "going-ons", I truly predict 2022 will be the Chickens coming home to roost for the FLDEM party, where decades of terrible candidate vetting, nominating, neglecting swing voters north of Polk County and (only stopping in 2018), horrible fundraising and just above all else being a terribly run chapter will see disaster left and right. Rubio is a political force in the state I fully expect him to win St. Pete and Hillsborough, and probably M.D. very slimly. Demings is a good pol, and a good campaigner, but she's going to get out fundraised, out spent and is going to drown in a red year. 

The Governor's race is even worse. Crist, well-known state wide loser and flip-flopper, is polling "close" with R.D., but as someone who watched his 2014 campaign, a spectacular implosion when he should have beaten Scott, but of course choked, it is a routine with him. He polls well in the summer, wins undecideds for some time, then Florida voters remember Charlie Crist was a milquetoast Attorney General and a Governor who only looked for the next position. Crist will make it respectable, but this is a terrible environment for a mediocre candidate like him. Fried is even worse, nominating her would be a Democratic Party sanctioned train wreck. If I were DeSantis in such a case, I'd literally not campaign. Moderates do not like her, she is more worried about headlines (always has been) than focusing on a very large, very prominent FL agriculture industry (one that was ripe for political cultivation and possibly could have helped her upset DeSantis this year if she stopped intentionally stepping on their toes), or really just doing her job. DeSantis is going to beat her bad if she wis. B-A-D.

The statewide level is really bad news for the Democrats, because there are a lotion close seats thatch a bloodbath will throw away. Lawson is fighting a critical race, as he's been redistricted. He'll surely lose to Dunn, and I'm leaning on Crist's seat going red; a lot less friendly to the Dems.