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Iowa in 2022


vcczar
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2018 saw a Blue Wave and 2020 saw a wave back. What happens in 2022?

2018 2020 2022
N N  
Trump Trump Trump
Reynolds Reynolds  
Ernst Ernst Ernst
Grassley Grassley  
Finkenauer Hinson  
Loebsack Miller-Meeks  
Axne Axne  
King Feenstra  
     
Reaction to Trump brings Dems back to life    
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Just now, vcczar said:

I woudn't be surprised if IA becomes completely Red for the first time in awhile. 

Yeah, Much like Ohio and Florida it seems to be one of the states that will continually trend red. Tim Ryan has been ahead in polling for Ohio Senate, Though I don’t see him winning in the end (If he does that will be a miracle for Dems). Fetterman has without a doubt the best chance for a dem pickup. 

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Axne is a strong incumbent, but that only goes so far, even here. Des Moines has been getting bigger while others get smaller. That would be the thing that saves her if she ends up winning. She's pretty much the definition of a local representative - she ran 15 points ahead of Biden in one county last election because of how much she helped with flood relief personally. 

The other districts...honestly would be pretty tossup in a better election, and could still prove some problems. Miller-Meeks is running in a slightly more blue district than Hinson, and has somewhat of a challenge from a law professor from the University of Iowa which fits within the district boundaries. Iowa City is true blue. That's what could doom her.

Hinson has a redder district, thus harder to beat. However, she has a much stronger challenger than Miller-Meeks. Sen. Liz Mathis has been begged by national Democrats to run for this seat...for decades. Only now has she agreed to run for it. 2020 will likely be too much for her to win it, though. 

Grassley is Grassley. Too strong. Franken is a good candidate, but likely only 56-44 good. Reynolds has a bigger problem considering she's less popular. Still probably a 55-45 win, even though I personally think DeJear is a really good candidate for Iowa. 

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