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Kentucky in 2022


vcczar
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Any predictions here? 

2018 2020 2024
     
Trump Trump Trump
Bevin Beshear (2019) Beshear
Paul Paul  
McConnell McConnell McConnell
Comer Comer  
Guthrie Guthrie  
Yarmuth Yarmuth  
Massie Massie  
Rogers Rogers  
Barr Barr  
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1 minute ago, ShortKing said:

Why is McConnell in such a light red, he won 58-38. Anyway, with Daniel Cameron in the race for Governor, I actually would be shocked if Beshear were to win reelection.

My color breaks are dark color (60% or higher), middle color (55%-59%), light color (less than 55%). 

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Status quo. Rand wins by his biggest margin thus far (and maybe sets a Republican record). 5 GOP in the House. 1 Dem. Barr will likely set a record considering the Dem he’s going against is off the rails. If any seat was going to flip, it would be the 3rd, but that would take a ridiculously good election for Republicans.

Also, the life amendment is on the ballot which will drive Dem voters in Louisville to the polls.

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1 hour ago, ShortKing said:

Why is McConnell in such a light red, he won 58-38. Anyway, with Daniel Cameron in the race for Governor, I actually would be shocked if Beshear were to win reelection.

Cameron is no lock for the nomination. We’ve got some heavy hitters from all factions represented. But also, that election is 2023.

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13 minutes ago, vcczar said:

What's the record?

In 2002, McConnell received 64.7%, winning by 29.4%.
In 1966, Sherman Cooper received 64.52%, winning by 29.04%.
 

It would take a very good year for him to reach it, but it isn’t out of the question with the way Booker’s campaign continues to struggle. If abortion wasn’t on the ballot, it would be easier (since Lexington and Louisville will likely have better turnout than otherwise). Trump received between 62 and 62.5 both times.

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1 hour ago, jvikings1 said:

In 2002, McConnell received 64.7%, winning by 29.4%.
In 1966, Sherman Cooper received 64.52%, winning by 29.04%.
 

It would take a very good year for him to reach it, but it isn’t out of the question with the way Booker’s campaign continues to struggle. If abortion wasn’t on the ballot, it would be easier (since Lexington and Louisville will likely have better turnout than otherwise). Trump received between 62 and 62.5 both times.

What is Rand Paul’s approval among Democrats and Independents in Kentucky? Also have there been any reliable polls for this race?

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

What is Rand Paul’s approval among Democrats and Independents in Kentucky? Also have there been any reliable polls for this race?

There’s been one from Mason-Dixon. 55-39 with 6 undecided. However polls in KY tend to underestimate Republicans because of how many registered Dems vote Republican (this month is the first time in history that there are more registered Republicans than Dems).

Booker wins Dems 73-22. Paul wins independents 52-39 and Republicans 89-5. Booker only wins the Louisville region (51-45).

 

The latest Mason-Dixon favorability poll has Rand Paul at 53 approve and 44 disapprove. Republicans are 82-16 in favor of approve. Independents are 68-25 in favor of approve. Democrats are 24-73 in favor of disapprove. Louisville is the only region with a negative opinion.

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