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Ohio in 2022


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27 minutes ago, Rezi said:

DeWine+12, Vance+4. Tim Ryan is running a great campaign and will certainly bring Ohio closer than it should be in this environment, but he won't be able to overcome partisanship.

Yeah, I think Ryan is winning now, but I think both parties tend to rally behind their candidate or preferred ideology by election day. As such, I expect Ryan to possibly be +1 in polls and still lose like -4. I think Ryan needs to be +5 in the polls to win.

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1 hour ago, ShortKing said:

Polling suggests Tim Ryan's taken the upper hand in the Senate race against Vance, but it's possible that voters who may not be enamored with Vance's candidacy now come home to their partisan corners by election day.

The last neutral poll for this race is from the end of May (which had Vance ahead). Every poll since has been anti-Vance.

Also, DeWine was down by around 5 points in the lead up to 2018, which he won by 4 points.

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No matter what happens this senate race will be one of the most interesting races of the cycle. Vance is one of the worst senate candidates I have ever seen. So many local Republicans have endorsed Ryan. Ryan has recently gained the endorsement of Senator Portmans Former Chief of Staff and some former Bush aides. Not like it’s going to convince the MAGA base, but there’s definitely a large anti Vance movement from his own side. 

Ryan has also ran one of the best senate campaigns of the cycle. Framing himself as a Center/Pro Union Ohio Democrat. He told AOC to shove it. It’s all a matter of how much can he do to overcome the national environment. This is definitely going to be a close one. 

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