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Texas in 2022


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The thing that people need to remember when analyzing politics, really the one that that deludes people, is that what happens on Twitter is 90% of the time not an indicator of what'll happen at the ballot box. Beto may get a butt-ton of retweets, likes and views on his video, and Abbott may get ratio'd to hell, but Texas is still a very Republican state. And, it will continue to be one for a long time. I do not think Texas goes blue in a Presidential year until 2036 at the earliest. I don't think a Democrat wins Texas on a statewide/downballot level at all this decade,

Anyways, Abbott beats Beto, hmmmmm, 53%-44%, and that's the best case scenario. Beto is the kind of candidate to get huge rally sizes and support from areas like Austin and San Antonio and think he's up big, only to forget that culturally and politically those areas are nowhere near the vast majority of Texas. Beto is a candidate simply unappealing to moderates, and independent, suburban conservative voters who have made the TXGOP the behemoth it has been for 45+ years. He couldn't even form a coalition against a disliked, just gross politician like Cruz (and they won't beat him in 2024 if he runs for re-election either) in a year where Democrats were taking down Trumpers across the country. Beto is just too liberal to be a candidate with a strong chance at victory, especially as Beto in 2022 is worlds different than Beto in 2018. I could even see the margin being something like 54%-43%. On the U.S. House level, I think the GOP picks up at least 4-5 seats, could even be 6. The seats of Gonzalez, Fletcher, Cuellar, Allred (ad throw in a shock/upset seat, or two) are the likely swings. 

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Even though I'm from Texas, and lived there most of my life, I am having a tough time making any sort of prediction. The state is swiftly becoming purple, but I think, barring a Blue Wave year, I don't see a Gov or Sen from TX being a Democrat in the 2020s. A lot of the reason for this is because TX has a lot of left-leaning citzens that just don't vote. Some of it is learned helplessness because of how Red the state has been. 

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