vcczar Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 Predictions? 2018 2020 2022 Trump Trump Trump Abbott Abbott Cruz Cruz Cruz Cornyn Cornyn Cornyn Gohmert Gohmert Crenshaw Crenshaw Taylor Taylor Ratcliffe Fallon Gooden Gooden Wright Wright Fletcher Fletcher Brady Brady Green Green McCaul McCaul Conaway Pfluger Granger Granger Thornberry Jackson Weber Weber Gonzalez Gonzalez Escobar Escobar Flores Sessions Lee Lee Arrington Arrington Castro Castro Roy Roy Olson Nehls Hurd Gonzales Marchant Van Duyne Williams Williams Burgess Burgess Farenthold Cloud Cuellar Cuellar Garcia Garcia Johnson Johnson Carter Carter Allred Allred Veasey Veasey Vela Vela Doggett Doggett Babin Babin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunell Posted August 14, 2022 Share Posted August 14, 2022 The thing that people need to remember when analyzing politics, really the one that that deludes people, is that what happens on Twitter is 90% of the time not an indicator of what'll happen at the ballot box. Beto may get a butt-ton of retweets, likes and views on his video, and Abbott may get ratio'd to hell, but Texas is still a very Republican state. And, it will continue to be one for a long time. I do not think Texas goes blue in a Presidential year until 2036 at the earliest. I don't think a Democrat wins Texas on a statewide/downballot level at all this decade, Anyways, Abbott beats Beto, hmmmmm, 53%-44%, and that's the best case scenario. Beto is the kind of candidate to get huge rally sizes and support from areas like Austin and San Antonio and think he's up big, only to forget that culturally and politically those areas are nowhere near the vast majority of Texas. Beto is a candidate simply unappealing to moderates, and independent, suburban conservative voters who have made the TXGOP the behemoth it has been for 45+ years. He couldn't even form a coalition against a disliked, just gross politician like Cruz (and they won't beat him in 2024 if he runs for re-election either) in a year where Democrats were taking down Trumpers across the country. Beto is just too liberal to be a candidate with a strong chance at victory, especially as Beto in 2022 is worlds different than Beto in 2018. I could even see the margin being something like 54%-43%. On the U.S. House level, I think the GOP picks up at least 4-5 seats, could even be 6. The seats of Gonzalez, Fletcher, Cuellar, Allred (ad throw in a shock/upset seat, or two) are the likely swings. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted August 15, 2022 Share Posted August 15, 2022 GOP gets 25 seats, Dems get 13. Though I am very interested to see what happens in the 28th (Cuellar) and 34th (Gonzalez-Flores). Based on current trends, those could be within reach for the GOP. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted August 15, 2022 Author Share Posted August 15, 2022 Even though I'm from Texas, and lived there most of my life, I am having a tough time making any sort of prediction. The state is swiftly becoming purple, but I think, barring a Blue Wave year, I don't see a Gov or Sen from TX being a Democrat in the 2020s. A lot of the reason for this is because TX has a lot of left-leaning citzens that just don't vote. Some of it is learned helplessness because of how Red the state has been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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