Jump to content
The Political Lounge

Using Lichtman's Keys to the White House to Predict 2024


vcczar
 Share

Recommended Posts

I read a book sometime around 2016 called The Keys to the White House. Author Allan Lichtman listed 13 keys and when five or fewer are false, then the incument loses. Since 1984, he's only been wrong in 2000 when Bush controversially defeated Gore in a nailbighter. 

The following are the keys and here's where I think Biden/Democrats are heading. I have Biden with 4 false keys. Two of the keys below will have to go from True to False for Lichtman to predict a Biden defeat in 2024. 

  1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE as Democrats will lose seats. 
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE, I don't think Biden will be seriously challenged if he runs
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. True. Yes, I think he will, alas. Although, if the keys are clairvoyant, then I encourage another run.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. True. At least right now, there's now significant strength coming from the Forward Party or from any Independent. Green and Libertarian Parties are weak.
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.  True. Technically, it isn't and the economy seems more likely it will be improving in late 2024. 
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. False. Obama's second half was quite strong and I think that's where the issue will be for Biden winning this key. Trump got hit with the pandemic, so Biden's economy should certainly beat Trump's in growth. It is possible this becomes True.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.  True. I think the bill just passed by the Senate is the kind of landmark legislation that makes this true. 
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. True. We haven't seen a Jan 6th insurrection or Black Lives Matter-like protests under Biden. 
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. True. As yet, not major scandal. Perhaps a GOP House investigates Hunter Biden and something comes out here, but Trump's scandals are so swamping major scandal headlines, that Biden would have to do a lot to make this false. 
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. False. Messy Afghanistan pull out. 
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. True. Played a major role in helping strengthen NATO, adding two new members. 
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. False. Biden isn't charismatic. 
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. True. Trump, the likely 2024 nominee, is not charismatic. Too unlikable and unfavorable to be charismatic. That is, Trump isn't Obama, Reagan, or JFK. 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, jvikings1 said:

The economy is in a recession after 2 straight quarters of contraction.

This is inaccurate. While two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction has been used as a rule-of-thumb for declaring a recession, in the US the National Bureau of Economic Research is generally recognized as the arbiter of when we're in a recession, and they use multiple measures of economic health when making their decision. While the economy is certainly cooling, and I believe we will enter a recession sooner rather than later, the recently robust jobs report and other positive indicators make declaring a recession right now seem somewhat incorrect. We should be able to analyze the economy as a complete system with many variables and multiple indicators to determine health, rather than limiting ourselves to a simplistic definition for declaring a recession which simply isn't recognized as the official definition in our country. Besides, the jobs report has put some suspicion on the accuracy of the last two GDP reports, which could be revised in the future. We already saw June's wage data revised recently; Initial headline economic data being inaccurate has been known to happen.

FaEqvr9X0AMTON9.png

Edited by The Blood
  • Like 1
  • Based 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, The Blood said:

This is inaccurate. While two consecutive quarters of real GDP contraction has been used as a rule-of-thumb for declaring a recession, in the US the National Bureau of Economic Research is generally recognized as the arbiter of when we're in a recession, and they use multiple measures of economic health when making their decision. While the economy is certainly cooling, and I believe we will enter a recession sooner rather than later, the recently robust jobs report and other positive indicators make declaring a recession right now seem somewhat incorrect. We should be able to analyze the economy as a complete system with many variables and multiple indicators to determine health, rather than limiting ourselves to a simplistic definition for declaring a recession which simply isn't recognized as the official definition in our country. Besides, the jobs report has put some suspicion on the accuracy of the last two GDP reports, which could be revised in the future. We already saw June's wage data revised recently; Initial headline economic data being inaccurate has been known to happen.

FaEqvr9X0AMTON9.png

George Wallave

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...