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2024 Election Poll (8/23)

vcczar

By vcczar
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2024 Election Poll  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. Who wins if Trump runs 3rd party?

    • Biden - D
      19
    • DeSantis - R
      2
    • Trump - I
      0

  2. 2. Who wins if Cheney runs 3rd party?

    • Biden - D
      5
    • Trump - R
      16
    • Cheney - I
      0

  3. 3. Who wins?

  4. 4. Who wins?

  5. 5. Who would be the closest to ideal president?

    • Marjorie Taylor Greene
      0
    • Donald Trump
      0
    • Ron DeSantis
      1
    • Rand Paul
      1
    • Ted Cruz
      0
    • Joe Biden
      1
    • Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
      0
    • Pete Buttigieg
      3
    • Bernie Sanders
      4
    • Elizabeth Warren
      1
    • Joe Manchin
      2
    • Liz Cheney
      0
    • Mitt Romney
      4
    • Stacey Abrams
      0
    • Justin Amash
      1
    • Charlie Baker
      0
    • Ilhan Omar
      1
    • Matt Gaetz
      0
    • Tulsi Gabbard
      1
    • Andrew Yang
      1

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vcczar

vcczar

Posted
Posted

All but the last question on the polls are based on a YouGov poll. I generally find these polls garbage. 538 gives them a B+, even if I think they're C-range. They would know better than me. Anyway, todays polls show the following:

  • Biden wins in a landslide if Trump runs independent. 
  • Trump wins in a landslide if Cheney runs independent. 
  • Biden beats Trump by about 1 to 5 pts
  • Biden beats DeSantis by 1 to 3 pts
  • Trump beats DeSantis in the primaries by 18 to 17 pts. 
  • Trump as a 3rd party candidate gets about 19% of the vote, while Cheney gets about 11% of the vote. 
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Rezi

Rezi

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Picked Buttigieg because I think he’d be the most competent president there, but none of those dem candidates fit my ideals personally. My ideal candidate would be a Governor who had to deal with a close legislature or is from a non-safe state. My top picks are Laura Kelly, Jared Polis, Big Gretch, Andy Beshear. Politicians like that.

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vcczar

vcczar

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21 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Am I the only one who thinks Cheney would take more votes from Trump than Biden?

I think the argument is that she would take the Never Trump GOP Republican vote away from Biden. I think she gets some of her vote from Trump, but who knows. I could see it go either way. 

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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

Am I the only one who thinks Cheney would take more votes from Trump than Biden?

Poll from today showed her taking far more from Biden 

5DC295C8-5654-41B7-84AE-6E99C085803A.jpeg.9eed3c7392ba110462246db607c53add.jpeg

Granted its one poll and we’re 2 years out from an election but still.  I don’t think there’s many conservatives left who like Liz Cheney. 

Edited by Rezi
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vcczar

vcczar

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@SilentLiberty How little of the vote do you think Trump gets if he runs independent? I think he'd have to take fewer than 5% of the vote to not impact DeSantis. For one, they're both from Florida now. Biden certainly takes FL, PA, MI, and WI because the GOP vote is shaved off because of Trump. In fact, it's hard to imagine Biden not winning GA, AZ, and possibly TX, even if his approval is 35% or lower. In fact, even if Biden died in office during the general election with a 29% approval, he'd probably still win if Trump gets over 5% of the GOP vote, although it would be close. 

I guess a good way to think about this is that in 2008. Bush was extremely unpopular and Democrats were a shoe-in to win. The charismatic Barack Obama won with just over a 7% margin in the PV vs McCain. We now live in a more polarized time in which winning by that margin again would be difficult. 

I guess my logic against your predictions is:

1. It is increadibly unlikely that anyone can win with a margin of more than 5% of the popular vote in the polarized politics of 2024. This isn't 1980. 

2. A Trump vote takes votes from DeSantis and not Biden, overwhelmingly so. 

3. Trump has a cult following which means he's unlikely to fall below 5% should he choose to run 3rd party. That is, he will outdo the Libertarian ticket of 2016. 

4. All this being the case, the GOP ticket is likely to lose a lot of states that they would win if their party was unified. 

 

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SilentLiberty

SilentLiberty

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53 minutes ago, vcczar said:

@SilentLiberty How little of the vote do you think Trump gets if he runs independent? I think he'd have to take fewer than 5% of the vote to not impact DeSantis. For one, they're both from Florida now. Biden certainly takes FL, PA, MI, and WI because the GOP vote is shaved off because of Trump. In fact, it's hard to imagine Biden not winning GA, AZ, and possibly TX, even if his approval is 35% or lower. In fact, even if Biden died in office during the general election with a 29% approval, he'd probably still win if Trump gets over 5% of the GOP vote, although it would be close. 

I guess a good way to think about this is that in 2008. Bush was extremely unpopular and Democrats were a shoe-in to win. The charismatic Barack Obama won with just over a 7% margin in the PV vs McCain. We now live in a more polarized time in which winning by that margin again would be difficult. 

I guess my logic against your predictions is:

1. It is increadibly unlikely that anyone can win with a margin of more than 5% of the popular vote in the polarized politics of 2024. This isn't 1980. 

2. A Trump vote takes votes from DeSantis and not Biden, overwhelmingly so. 

3. Trump has a cult following which means he's unlikely to fall below 5% should he choose to run 3rd party. That is, he will outdo the Libertarian ticket of 2016. 

4. All this being the case, the GOP ticket is likely to lose a lot of states that they would win if their party was unified. 

 

I think if he runs third party his supporters won't turn out or will still vote Republican despite going to Trump rallies and showing they will vote for him in the general. I don't think it's a case of Teddy Roosevelt running third party as much as Trump might like to think so. I think a Trump 3rd party would be a vanity project, a way for him to still be involved, hold rallies, be on the news but I think he and his supports both know he wouldn't win. I think in the event of him running 3rd party, De Santis wins but the election could easily be contensted and some states might be too close to call for a good while. However I would love love love if Trump running 3rd party was a big nothing burger and had no effect on politics nor the election.

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DakotaHale

DakotaHale

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4 hours ago, Rezi said:

Poll from today showed her taking far more from Biden 

5DC295C8-5654-41B7-84AE-6E99C085803A.jpeg.9eed3c7392ba110462246db607c53add.jpeg

Granted its one poll and we’re 2 years out from an election but still.  I don’t think there’s many conservatives left who like Liz Cheney. 

Very interesting. Thanks for this, I would honestly never have guessed she had that much appeal in the Biden camp (though the Never-Trumper thing makes sense).

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Entrecampos

Entrecampos

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On 8/23/2022 at 9:05 PM, vcczar said:

All but the last question on the polls are based on a YouGov poll. I generally find these polls garbage. 538 gives them a B+, even if I think they're C-range. They would know better than me. Anyway, todays polls show the following:

  • Biden wins in a landslide if Trump runs independent. 
  • Trump wins in a landslide if Cheney runs independent. 
  • Biden beats Trump by about 1 to 5 pts
  • Biden beats DeSantis by 1 to 3 pts
  • Trump beats DeSantis in the primaries by 18 to 17 pts. 
  • Trump as a 3rd party candidate gets about 19% of the vote, while Cheney gets about 11% of the vote. 

For you what are the best 3 pollsters?

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vcczar

vcczar

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2 hours ago, Entrecampos said:

For you what are the best 3 pollsters?

I think there's a group larger than 3 are all about the same -- Emerson, Trafagar, Rasmussen, Marist, SurveyUSA, PPP, Monmouth, Siena, Quinnipiac, Selzer, TIPP, and some others. And none of these are good enough to be taken alone. These and the others have to be sort of used in tandem, paying close attention to which way they are trending. 

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Entrecampos

Entrecampos

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

I think there's a group larger than 3 are all about the same -- Emerson, Trafagar, Rasmussen, Marist, SurveyUSA, PPP, Monmouth, Siena, Quinnipiac, Selzer, TIPP, and some others. And none of these are good enough to be taken alone. These and the others have to be sort of used in tandem, paying close attention to which way they are trending. 

Good list. All that you said are in my top 50,except one. 

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