Jump to content
The Political Lounge

There Won't be a Red Wave in 2022


vcczar
 Share

Recommended Posts

Five Reasons:

  1. There was a bellwether special election in NY yesterday. Democrats won the district, despite the district going to Biden by only 2% margin in 2022. This district should have gone GOP even under just normal midterm conditions. This is a bad sign for Republicans. 
  2. Generic Ballots are still showing a slight preference for Democrats on average, according to 538. Even RCP doesn't show wave, but rather something of a tossup. 
  3. The % chance that Democrats hold the US senate are over 60% and the US House is 21 or 22%. Both of these have generally been trending towards Democrats. It seems likely Democrats will lose the US House, but they seem like they could gain in the US Senate, in fact. 
  4. While Biden's approval is low, Trump's favorability is just as low or lower. So long as Trump = GOP, it is hard to imagine Generic Ballots favoring a Red Wave. Trump is not capable of unified support and a party led by him is not either. 
  5. Biden's approval is ticking upward. Gas prices are lowering. It seems more likely than not that the worst of Biden's 2022 has already passed. If true, this could mean that Generic Ballots trend more towards Democrats, % chances of holding US Senate and US House migrate towards Democrats, and Trump's legal battles could make the GOP even more unpopular. 

I'd say Democrats are in a BEST CASE scenario for having an incumbent president with a 40 to 41% approval rating. Let me underscore this by saying, I don't think Democrats deserve any of this good luck. However, I do think the GOP --drunk on Trump cultism--deserves all of this bad luck. I've never been in a more positive mood despite my preferred party likely losing the US House. 

What I expect is that Biden wins in 2024, however narrowly. That Democrats might lose a US Senate seat in that election but still have a 50-50+VP advantage, but then also regain the US House in 2024. This will mostly be because I think Biden is going to be on something of an upswing between now and the end of 2024, even if it isn't terribly noticeable. He inherited a crisis, and the thing with that, is that one usually can only go upwards. A good analogy is Barack Obama following George W Bush. 

To get a Red Wave, the GOP has to hope Biden gets hit with something big in less than 3 months. I don't think that's happening. GOP is really blowing their opportunity by now dropping Trump right after his defeat. However, they might be stuck with him. Disowning him would split the party. So they're screwed. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wave elections could be a thing of the past. 2018 was a weak midterm result for Dems (smaller House majority than expected and lost in the Senate). If another weak year follows, it might be the start of a trend.

But it should be noted that special elections are far from an accurate indicator of eventual result. Obviously the results isn’t good for Republicans. But specials are low turnout and don’t necessarily correlate to a general.

  • Like 1
  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I remember a friend of mine who voted for and somewhat enthusiastically supported Trump in 2020 telling me that he thinks moving forward, one term Presidents will be the norm. His reasoning being that polarization and negative partisanship providing a hard floor for either major party nominee, and in such a toxic political environment, incumbency might prove to be more of a burden than a boost. I don’t quite sign on to that just yet, but I do find it somewhat compelling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/24/2022 at 4:13 PM, vcczar said:

Five Reasons:

  1. There was a bellwether special election in NY yesterday. Democrats won the district, despite the district going to Biden by only 2% margin in 2022. This district should have gone GOP even under just normal midterm conditions. This is a bad sign for Republicans. 
  2. Generic Ballots are still showing a slight preference for Democrats on average, according to 538. Even RCP doesn't show wave, but rather something of a tossup. 
  3. The % chance that Democrats hold the US senate are over 60% and the US House is 21 or 22%. Both of these have generally been trending towards Democrats. It seems likely Democrats will lose the US House, but they seem like they could gain in the US Senate, in fact. 
  4. While Biden's approval is low, Trump's favorability is just as low or lower. So long as Trump = GOP, it is hard to imagine Generic Ballots favoring a Red Wave. Trump is not capable of unified support and a party led by him is not either. 
  5. Biden's approval is ticking upward. Gas prices are lowering. It seems more likely than not that the worst of Biden's 2022 has already passed. If true, this could mean that Generic Ballots trend more towards Democrats, % chances of holding US Senate and US House migrate towards Democrats, and Trump's legal battles could make the GOP even more unpopular. 

I'd say Democrats are in a BEST CASE scenario for having an incumbent president with a 40 to 41% approval rating. Let me underscore this by saying, I don't think Democrats deserve any of this good luck. However, I do think the GOP --drunk on Trump cultism--deserves all of this bad luck. I've never been in a more positive mood despite my preferred party likely losing the US House. 

What I expect is that Biden wins in 2024, however narrowly. That Democrats might lose a US Senate seat in that election but still have a 50-50+VP advantage, but then also regain the US House in 2024. This will mostly be because I think Biden is going to be on something of an upswing between now and the end of 2024, even if it isn't terribly noticeable. He inherited a crisis, and the thing with that, is that one usually can only go upwards. A good analogy is Barack Obama following George W Bush. 

To get a Red Wave, the GOP has to hope Biden gets hit with something big in less than 3 months. I don't think that's happening. GOP is really blowing their opportunity by now dropping Trump right after his defeat. However, they might be stuck with him. Disowning him would split the party. So they're screwed. 

Yes, we will not have a Red Wave for sure.

OBS. I would like to see your 2020 map, I remember you were right in all states, would like to see it again.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...