vcczar Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Five Reasons: There was a bellwether special election in NY yesterday. Democrats won the district, despite the district going to Biden by only 2% margin in 2022. This district should have gone GOP even under just normal midterm conditions. This is a bad sign for Republicans. Generic Ballots are still showing a slight preference for Democrats on average, according to 538. Even RCP doesn't show wave, but rather something of a tossup. The % chance that Democrats hold the US senate are over 60% and the US House is 21 or 22%. Both of these have generally been trending towards Democrats. It seems likely Democrats will lose the US House, but they seem like they could gain in the US Senate, in fact. While Biden's approval is low, Trump's favorability is just as low or lower. So long as Trump = GOP, it is hard to imagine Generic Ballots favoring a Red Wave. Trump is not capable of unified support and a party led by him is not either. Biden's approval is ticking upward. Gas prices are lowering. It seems more likely than not that the worst of Biden's 2022 has already passed. If true, this could mean that Generic Ballots trend more towards Democrats, % chances of holding US Senate and US House migrate towards Democrats, and Trump's legal battles could make the GOP even more unpopular. I'd say Democrats are in a BEST CASE scenario for having an incumbent president with a 40 to 41% approval rating. Let me underscore this by saying, I don't think Democrats deserve any of this good luck. However, I do think the GOP --drunk on Trump cultism--deserves all of this bad luck. I've never been in a more positive mood despite my preferred party likely losing the US House. What I expect is that Biden wins in 2024, however narrowly. That Democrats might lose a US Senate seat in that election but still have a 50-50+VP advantage, but then also regain the US House in 2024. This will mostly be because I think Biden is going to be on something of an upswing between now and the end of 2024, even if it isn't terribly noticeable. He inherited a crisis, and the thing with that, is that one usually can only go upwards. A good analogy is Barack Obama following George W Bush. To get a Red Wave, the GOP has to hope Biden gets hit with something big in less than 3 months. I don't think that's happening. GOP is really blowing their opportunity by now dropping Trump right after his defeat. However, they might be stuck with him. Disowning him would split the party. So they're screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Wave elections could be a thing of the past. 2018 was a weak midterm result for Dems (smaller House majority than expected and lost in the Senate). If another weak year follows, it might be the start of a trend. But it should be noted that special elections are far from an accurate indicator of eventual result. Obviously the results isn’t good for Republicans. But specials are low turnout and don’t necessarily correlate to a general. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortKing Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 I remember a friend of mine who voted for and somewhat enthusiastically supported Trump in 2020 telling me that he thinks moving forward, one term Presidents will be the norm. His reasoning being that polarization and negative partisanship providing a hard floor for either major party nominee, and in such a toxic political environment, incumbency might prove to be more of a burden than a boost. I don’t quite sign on to that just yet, but I do find it somewhat compelling. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pilight Posted August 25, 2022 Share Posted August 25, 2022 The benefits of incumbency are dependent on many factors, most of which are beyond the president's control. One incumbent losing following a record three straight two termers doesn't strike me as much of a trend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 On 8/24/2022 at 4:13 PM, vcczar said: Five Reasons: There was a bellwether special election in NY yesterday. Democrats won the district, despite the district going to Biden by only 2% margin in 2022. This district should have gone GOP even under just normal midterm conditions. This is a bad sign for Republicans. Generic Ballots are still showing a slight preference for Democrats on average, according to 538. Even RCP doesn't show wave, but rather something of a tossup. The % chance that Democrats hold the US senate are over 60% and the US House is 21 or 22%. Both of these have generally been trending towards Democrats. It seems likely Democrats will lose the US House, but they seem like they could gain in the US Senate, in fact. While Biden's approval is low, Trump's favorability is just as low or lower. So long as Trump = GOP, it is hard to imagine Generic Ballots favoring a Red Wave. Trump is not capable of unified support and a party led by him is not either. Biden's approval is ticking upward. Gas prices are lowering. It seems more likely than not that the worst of Biden's 2022 has already passed. If true, this could mean that Generic Ballots trend more towards Democrats, % chances of holding US Senate and US House migrate towards Democrats, and Trump's legal battles could make the GOP even more unpopular. I'd say Democrats are in a BEST CASE scenario for having an incumbent president with a 40 to 41% approval rating. Let me underscore this by saying, I don't think Democrats deserve any of this good luck. However, I do think the GOP --drunk on Trump cultism--deserves all of this bad luck. I've never been in a more positive mood despite my preferred party likely losing the US House. What I expect is that Biden wins in 2024, however narrowly. That Democrats might lose a US Senate seat in that election but still have a 50-50+VP advantage, but then also regain the US House in 2024. This will mostly be because I think Biden is going to be on something of an upswing between now and the end of 2024, even if it isn't terribly noticeable. He inherited a crisis, and the thing with that, is that one usually can only go upwards. A good analogy is Barack Obama following George W Bush. To get a Red Wave, the GOP has to hope Biden gets hit with something big in less than 3 months. I don't think that's happening. GOP is really blowing their opportunity by now dropping Trump right after his defeat. However, they might be stuck with him. Disowning him would split the party. So they're screwed. Yes, we will not have a Red Wave for sure. OBS. I would like to see your 2020 map, I remember you were right in all states, would like to see it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted August 28, 2022 Author Share Posted August 28, 2022 14 minutes ago, Entrecampos said: Yes, we will not have a Red Wave for sure. OBS. I would like to see your 2020 map, I remember you were right in all states, would like to see it again. https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Entrecampos Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 (edited) On 8/28/2022 at 2:33 AM, vcczar said: https://historymonocle.com/2020/11/02/2020-election-prediction/ I think 2020 special elections made me aware of Trump surpassing polls... Republicans did well in New York 27, Wisconsin 7, California 25, etc... Idk how people didnt see it. Edited August 29, 2022 by Entrecampos Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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