vcczar Posted August 24, 2022 Share Posted August 24, 2022 Five Reasons: There was a bellwether special election in NY yesterday. Democrats won the district, despite the district going to Biden by only 2% margin in 2022. This district should have gone GOP even under just normal midterm conditions. This is a bad sign for Republicans. Generic Ballots are still showing a slight preference for Democrats on average, according to 538. Even RCP doesn't show wave, but rather something of a tossup. The % chance that Democrats hold the US senate are over 60% and the US House is 21 or 22%. Both of these have generally been trending towards Democrats. It seems likely Democrats will lose the US House, but they seem like they could gain in the US Senate, in fact. While Biden's approval is low, Trump's favorability is just as low or lower. So long as Trump = GOP, it is hard to imagine Generic Ballots favoring a Red Wave. Trump is not capable of unified support and a party led by him is not either. Biden's approval is ticking upward. Gas prices are lowering. It seems more likely than not that the worst of Biden's 2022 has already passed. If true, this could mean that Generic Ballots trend more towards Democrats, % chances of holding US Senate and US House migrate towards Democrats, and Trump's legal battles could make the GOP even more unpopular. I'd say Democrats are in a BEST CASE scenario for having an incumbent president with a 40 to 41% approval rating. Let me underscore this by saying, I don't think Democrats deserve any of this good luck. However, I do think the GOP --drunk on Trump cultism--deserves all of this bad luck. I've never been in a more positive mood despite my preferred party likely losing the US House. What I expect is that Biden wins in 2024, however narrowly. That Democrats might lose a US Senate seat in that election but still have a 50-50+VP advantage, but then also regain the US House in 2024. This will mostly be because I think Biden is going to be on something of an upswing between now and the end of 2024, even if it isn't terribly noticeable. He inherited a crisis, and the thing with that, is that one usually can only go upwards. A good analogy is Barack Obama following George W Bush. To get a Red Wave, the GOP has to hope Biden gets hit with something big in less than 3 months. I don't think that's happening. GOP is really blowing their opportunity by now dropping Trump right after his defeat. However, they might be stuck with him. Disowning him would split the party. So they're screwed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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