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VCCZAR's 2022 Predictions


vcczar

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13 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Ohioan-turned-Pennsylvanian here.  Not a chance.  Ohio grows redder every day, while Pennsylvania has a strong urban base.  A traditional Republican might have won in PA, but Dr. Oz is SUCH a stunningly bad candidate while Fetterman has that blue collar appeal.  I'd bet my house that PA goes Fetterman while Ryan loses in Ohio. 

But. Have you stopped to think about. Bluhio?

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On 10/8/2022 at 12:03 AM, MrPotatoTed said:

Ohioan-turned-Pennsylvanian here.  Not a chance.  Ohio grows redder every day, while Pennsylvania has a strong urban base.  A traditional Republican might have won in PA, but Dr. Oz is SUCH a stunningly bad candidate while Fetterman has that blue collar appeal.  I'd bet my house that PA goes Fetterman while Ryan loses in Ohio. 

To think that Oz is a significantly worse candidate than Fetterman is to miss something, I think. And to not think that Ryan isn't a stunningly and significantly better candidate than Vance to the degree it could swing the race is, again, to miss something, I think.

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OCTOBER 15 MIDTERM Projection UPDATE:

1. US House - GOP takes control: Polling is still so limited House races that I'm not using an algorithm to predict this, but based on how things look in the US Sen and Gov races, I'd say the GOP wins the house. 

2. US Sen - Dems keep control w/ 50-50+VP: See the map below. The only change is that Warnock is now losing to Walker, partially because Abrams is dragging him down (I factor that in). I think any outside shot of Dems winning WI, FL, NC, and OH are moving away from them. This is mostly due to inflation being a top issue again, which impacts Biden's popularity. This is why in the GA debate, Walker focused on making Warnock and Biden identical people. 

3. US Gov - GOP majority stands: See the Gov map below. I'm not sure when Dems last had the majority of Govs. It must have been at the beginning of Obama's presidency. Changes since my last update are AZ and WI are now GOP.  Evers is getting pulled down as Barnes is losing a lot of support. If I didn't factor the other half of the ticket into these races, then Evers would be narrowly winning, as would Warnock in the US Sen projection. OR is a possibility for the GOP, but the state's partisan bias is really helping Dems hold OR in the algorithm. The GOP candidate would have to be showing like +4 in the polls to win that race, which would then also factor stronger momentum towards the candidate.

4. Overall, we don't have a Red Wave. It's a Red Trickle, but it's not looking as good for Democrats as it did, say a month ago. I think Biden will have to do something really big that both his base and independents really like within the next two weeks to flip any of the momentum. 

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October 21st Update: Red Wave Now Possible

US Senate: I'm now projecting the GOP gets 52 seats next term. For the first time, I have PA going to Oz, and now I also have NV going to the GOP. On top of this, AZ is very, very close to going to GOP in my projections. Unlike some projections, I do not show OR going to the GOP or really under clear threat of going GOP. The PA flip is a shock for me as I live in Philadelphia and I'm also in its suburbs occasionally. I have seen exactly one Oz sign to about 500 or more Fetterman signs. 

US Gov: My Gov map is the same as my last projection, although the NV Gov race is unde threat of flipping to GOP. 

US House: I am not really projecting House races with my algorithm, but I would assume it's going to look pretty bad for Dems considering what the Senate race is looking like now. 

Overall, I think the Dems peaked too early. There could be enough time to save PA, NV, AZ, and GA for Democrats but it would have to take some major news. I think some GOP candidate could get hurt if something big comes out of the Trump trials just in time, but that will only impact races that are extremely close. 

If the election were today, I'd say the GOP takes control of both Houses of Congress, maintains its big lead in governorships. This will render Biden ineffective legislatively and he will rely heavily on both foreign policy and executive orders. Democrats in Congress will likely propose a lot of idealistic reform, the stuff they wouldn't propose when in the majority as a means to say, "This is what you could have if we were still in the majority." Biden will reflect this as well rhetorically. I expect the GOP to try and impeach Biden, even though they have no valid reason to do so. They'll investigate Hunter Biden, which I'm okay with them doing, as I think just about every federal official should undergo routine auditing and investigation. They'll also probably try to kill any federal investigations into Trump. This also means the Trump Investigations will probably move more rapidly. Ultimately, Biden will kind of fade into--at least he's not Trump or MAGA--, which might serve him better for 2024. Now, if the economy sucks, inflation stays high, etc., part of the blame will now be on the GOP and Biden and Democrats can at least now blame the other party, something that was more difficult to do when they had both Houses of Congress. 

I'm expected to be disappointed on Election Day, as someone that would like to see a Supermajority of Democrats in both Houses of Congress. I will consider a status quo of 50+50 Senators + VP to be a victory, honestly. A huge relief. Should the GOP take both Houses, then the next two years of Biden won't be fun. We will be just waiting for 2024 with the hope that a Blue wave comes with a reelected Biden or other Democrat. 

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On 10/15/2022 at 2:19 PM, DakotaHale said:

Blake Masters and Brian Kemp gang wya

Masters might be my favorite new candidate this cycle.

And Kemp is an underrated governor amongst Republicans. The stupid Trump stuff got blown way out of proportion.

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4 hours ago, vcczar said:

US Gov: My Gov map is the same as my last projection, although the NV Gov race is unde threat of flipping to GOP. 

Take a look at Oregon. There is a really good chance that the GOP flips it because of the presence of a left-leaning independent.

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54 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Masters might be my favorite new candidate this cycle.

And Kemp is an underrated governor amongst Republicans. The stupid Trump stuff got blown way out of proportion.

Masters is easily my favorite candidate in the past few elections. No chance in hell of winning though.

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3 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

Masters is easily my favorite candidate in the past few elections. No chance in hell of winning though.

Masters has closed the gap a bit in the last few weeks. He is still an underdog, but an upset victory is more reasonable now more than even. Lake winning (which seems more likely as the election gets closer) show help him too.

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16 hours ago, ShortKing said:

Why Blake Masters over someone like Kari Lake?

I highly value his experience in business, and management. Peter Thiel is an insanely intelligent businessman and investor and having him as Master's closest advisor is a cherry on top. Kari Lake is cool but I think someone like Masters has a really nice chance of upsetting the status quo of the Senate. He's also simultaneously anti-war and anti-globalist which is rare nowadays.

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This is a big reason why I'm less confident in my algorithm for 2022 than I was in 2020. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/youre-not-imagining-it-there-are-fewer-polls-this-cycle/

In 2020, even though I was surprised it showed GA going Blue, I felt like I was confident in the result. If I was 95% confident in my algorithm in 2020, I'd say I'm like 55% confident in it for 2022. That is, I think there's a 45% chance my algorithm misses at least one Senate or Gov race. Whereas, I was only 5% sure my 2020 algorithm would miss a state (it only missed ME-2, which I don't count. It had one poll a month, if that, so the algorithm couldn't actually make a prediction). 

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No changes in the 2022 Projection, although Oz (facing Fetterman) and Dixon (facing Whitmer) have a lot of momentum. If Fetterman win, it will be because of early voting I think. The projection still has Whitmer winning but it is getting closer by the week. What's odd is that Beasley in NC, while still losing in the projections, is the only Democrat who isn't collapsing and is instead making some ground. 

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My next big update on my algorithm will be tomorrow. I think Democrats had such a bad week, polling-wise, when I last did my big update 5 days ago that this will will be helpful to see if GOP momentum is really continuing, slowing down, or partially reversing. 

On another note, Biden will be 80 years old in a few days or few weeks. I'm a little conflicted on whether or not he should run for reelection. 

Why he should run for reelection:

  • He has incumbency strength, and he's been a much better inflation president than Jimmy Carter or Gerald Ford were. He's more likable to a wider range of Americans than Harris, Buttigieg, Clinton, AOC, etc. If he declines a 2nd term, some might take that to mean that he's admitting that he and Democrats have failed or have failing policies.

Why he shouldn't run for reelection:

  • He's about to turn 80 and his approval is 42% on average. During the COVID pandemic he had the luxury of rarely campaigning and still defeating Trump. He'll be about 82 on election day 2024 and will have to be a much more vigorous campaigner in 2024. He'd have to be out and about every hour in a frantic attempt to save American democracy. 

I will be very frustrated if Obama isn't campaigning in 2024 as if he's running for president. He needs to get out there. He's the best surrogate in the US. 

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Halloween Update

Overall, this week has been much better for Democrats than the last two weeks, but the improvement isn't enough to get them back to where they had been a few months ago when it looked like they'd secure a clear majority of the Senate seats and get within a 1/3 chance of keeping the House. Democrats MUST have a huge momentum boost this week. Their only good news is that they may have stifled a potential Red Wave, resuling in a Red Trickle, if this continue this slight progress another week. Another week like this might see WI and NV flip Blue on the Gov map and NV and GA flip Blue on the Senate map. A bad week will see the following flip Red, PA and AZ Senate. 

I know there is some optimism that OR Gov will go Red and OH Sen will go Blue, but my algorithm isn't showing any of that optimism. The partisan bias is too great and the 3rd parties are unlikely to maintain their polling strength on election day, since they rarely do. The big wild card is KS Gov because of a total lack of polling. I'm showing a clear GOP takeover. There have only been like two poll of any note for this race, which shows a -1 drop in support for Kelly. That with the partisan bias, among other things, is telling the algorithm that it will go GOP but the algorithm really only works with a lot of data. Next week at this time, I'll post my final prediction. 

Governor Projection:

2jxW.png

 

US Senate Map: 

MldjeE.png

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21 hours ago, vcczar said:

MldjeE.png

It's interesting that your algorithm and the 538 model show Warnock in more trouble than Fetterman, this seems to be a fairly widespread view and yet I find the disparity in candidate quality between Warnock and Walker so much more stark than the disparity between Fetterman and Oz.

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8 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

It's interesting that your algorithm and the 538 model show Warnock in more trouble than Fetterman, this seems to be a fairly widespread view and yet I find the disparity in candidate quality between Warnock and Walker so much more stark than the disparity between Fetterman and Oz.

A lot of it is based on the two Governor races. And state partisan bias. 

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Update:

My algorithm is now seeing Hassan's seat within striking distance. I'll do my final projection on Tuesday morning. As I don't trust my algorithm with midterms as well as I do with Presidential Elections (it's sort of build better for that), I'll probably show my predictions where I disagree with my algorithm. 

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