AMPU Census

[vcczar]

I finished the AMPU Census spreadsheet, which is on the Table of Contents

Here's a map of the state biases for the 2090 Census year. This is what the battleground map would look like at 2092, barring scripted events, and gov actions that would change the map. Lots of toss up states. 

NOTE: THIS IS 2024 Electoral Vote #s, so the EVs would be much different in 2092. 

[OrangeP47]

Thanks for the access, this is the kind of data that gets me going.  I could nitpick, but I won't.  Here hopefully this weekend we're gonna run the 1850 census in the 1840 playtest, and we'll have some "events" that affect things, such as industries moving, etc, so we'll see how it goes.

[Arkansas Progressive]

the 1920 Census will be in a few weeks, and depending on industries we might have some alt-hist electoral college shenanigans

[OrangeP47]

Census results from the 1850 census in the 1840 game, our first test of these rules I think. TL;DR, I think it went well.  As the one who wouldn't shut up until this feature was in the game, I'm happy.

AL: 9 (no change) (historical)

AR: 4 (+1) (historical)

AZ: (-2 modifier, technically at 1, due to event) (ahistorical)

CT: 6 (no change) (historical)

DE: 3 (no change) (historical)

FL: 3 (no change) (historical)

GA: 10 (no change) (historical)

IA: 4 (+1) (historical)

IL: 11 (+2) (historical)

IN: 13 (+1) (historical)

KY: 12 (no change) (historical)

LA: 6 (no change) (historical)

LC: 5 (ahistorical)

MA: 13 (+1) (historical)

MD: 8 (no change) (historical)

ME: 8 (-1) (historical)

MI: 6 (+1) (historical)

MO: 9 (+2) (historical)

MS: 7 (+1) (historical)

NC: 10 (-5) (historical)

NH: 5 (-1) (historical)

NJ: 7 (no change) (historical)

NM: (-2 modifier, technically at 1, due to event) (ahistorical)

NY: 35 (-1) (historical)

OH: 23 (no change) (historical)

PA: 27 (+1) (historical)

RI: 4 (no change) (historical)

SC: 8 (-1) (historical)

TN: 12 (-1) (historical)

TX: 4 (+1) (historical)

UC: 3 (ahistorical)

VA: 15 (-2) (historical)

VT: 5 (-1) (historical)

WI: 5 (+2) (historical)

 

EV Total: 300

House Seats: 236

Notes:  Most chances for EV changes are 10% or 25%.  I don't recall how many triggers I hit, but it was either 8 or 9, and 2 fired, so statistically average.  Just, the ironic thing is, they both fired for Lower California, which is perhaps not the most "satisfying" result from wanting to see chaos, but eh, I consider this a success.  The rules are fairly realistic and worked.

[OrangeP47]

So I'm still in a fun census mood and doing independent research on some stats I was interested in, and here's a historical fact I'd never heard of before:  Apparently, Congress failed to conduct the 1920 census...!  They just didn't do reapportionment that decade.

[vcczar]

1 hour ago, OrangeP47 said:

So I'm still in a fun census mood and doing independent research on some stats I was interested in, and here's a historical fact I'd never heard of before:  Apparently, Congress failed to conduct the 1920 census...!  They just didn't do reapportionment that decade.

I didn't know that. Well, there is a 1920 US Census because you can use it on ancestry.com and see images of the census results. Do you have a link to support this? 

[MrPotatoTed]

2 hours ago, OrangeP47 said:

So I'm still in a fun census mood and doing independent research on some stats I was interested in, and here's a historical fact I'd never heard of before:  Apparently, Congress failed to conduct the 1920 census...!  They just didn't do reapportionment that decade.

 

48 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I didn't know that. Well, there is a 1920 US Census because you can use it on ancestry.com and see images of the census results. Do you have a link to support this? 

Looks like the census still happened, but Congress didn't agree on how to do the reapportionment so nothing changed.  The census still happened, though.

In 1929, they passed a law that appears to mostly still be in place today, including the 435 limit, just in time to not have the same debacle over the 1930 census.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_United_States_census

Edited September 18, 2022 by MrPotatoTed

[OrangeP47]

48 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I didn't know that. Well, there is a 1920 US Census because you can use it on ancestry.com and see images of the census results. Do you have a link to support this? 

I was in a rush and headed out the door, so I misspoke.  The *census* was complete... but reapportionment did not happen.  Congress failed to act on the results of 1920.

[OrangeP47]

Just now, MrPotatoTed said:

 

Looks like the census still happened, but Congress didn't agree on how to do the reapportionment so nothing changed.  The census still happened, though.

In 1929, they passed a law that appears to mostly still be in place today, including the 435 limit, just in time to not have the same debacle over the 1930 census.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1920_United_States_census

Damn it Ted, ya ninja'd me 🤣

[Arkansas Progressive]

oh yea the house seats that didn't get apportioned for two decades shows how bad it got between the 1912 and 1922 house elections wherre populations boomed

[OrangeP47]

Necroposting in this thread, because the census is my favorite part of the game.  We recently had an event in 1840 where every state (that can support manufacturing) gets a +2 to manufacturing).  As it stands, if every roll succeeded, that would make the US population in 1860 around 35-36 million, as compared to 31.2 million it was IRL.  That said, the success percentage for a roll is around 25%, so statistically, the population is going to work out to about 32.5 million or something.  An interesting but probably realistic deviation. Just some numbers for ya'll.  Also we're only in 1855 or so so we still have time for the census to be affected in either direction still.

[OrangeP47]

So this thread is basically my blog.

Even though it's 1856, preliminary reports of population figures say Florida will have a MINIMUM of 6 EV post 1860 census in our playthrough, and has a 12.5% chance of having 8 EV.  That'd be amazing from an alt-hist perspective.