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2022 Midterm Poll (10/17)


vcczar
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2022 Midterm Poll (10/17)  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. US House: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

    • D's shock the pollsters and the nation by emerging with more House seats than they had this term.
      0
    • D's hold the majority in the House, even if they lose some seats.
    • R's take the US House
  2. 2. US Senate: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

    • D's emerge with at least 51 Senators
    • D's hold the 50-50+1 VP vote
    • R's emerge with at least 51 Senators
  3. 3. Govs: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

    • D's win the 7 or so most contested governor's elections and have the majority of the governorships.
      0
    • R's keep the majority of governorships, even if they lose most of the governor races.
  4. 4. 2024 election between Biden & Trump: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

  5. 5. 2024 election between Biden & DeSantis: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

  6. 6. 2024 election between Harris & Trump: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

  7. 7. 2024 election between Harris & DeSantis: Which best captures you prediction at the moment?

  8. 8. Regardless of Party, who would be the strongest 2024 candidate for president.

    • Biden
    • Trump
      0
    • Harris
      0
    • DeSantis
    • Buttigieg
    • Pence
    • Newsome
    • Whitmer
    • Haley
      0
    • AOC
      0
    • Other (mention below)
  9. 9. If you could magic the following into being, which would be best for the nation and for all humanity in the 21st century and beyond?

    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of Green Party politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of the Libertarian Party politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of Socialist Party politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of some sort of American Theocratic Party (conservative Christianity--Mega Church type) politicians and close allies.
      0
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of American Fascist Party politicians and close allies.
      0
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of MAGA Trump-style Republican Party politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of establishment Conservative McConnell-Rubio-style Republicans and close allies
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of Neocon "Moderate" McCain-Romney-style Republican Party politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of Establishment Liberal Biden-Pelosi-style politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of Warren-Inslee-style Party politicians and close allies.
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of a slew of "radical" populists both far-left and far-right.
      0
    • The Federal Government was a Supermajority of fundamental bipartisan, non-partisan, independent moderates.
    • The Federal Government is abolished.
    • The Federal Government is run and governed by AI that can detect exactly what the country really needs to flourish.


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The government run by a super advanced artificial intelligence is a dream scenario, but it’s a bit unrealistic given our current tech, even for this hypothetical. My second choice would be a supermajority of non-partisan independent moderates since I wouldn’t trust any of the other factions to govern the country unchecked.

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1 hour ago, Hestia said:

For people saying DeSantis...have you watched him debate? I think he's formidable at the moment, but he gets rather defensive and panicky when put head to head with somebody. I think someone could easily pick him apart in a televised setting. 

I saw him debate Andrew Gillum, and the media consensus was that he lost and Gillum had the momentum...and then in a blue wave year, RDS outperformed his polls and won the election anyway. RDS is a savvy candidate who is able to navigate the political climate better than most, I think in a general election, he'd do quite well. 

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2 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

I saw him debate Andrew Gillum, and the media consensus was that he lost and Gillum had the momentum...and then in a blue wave year, RDS outperformed his polls and won the election anyway. RDS is a savvy candidate who is able to navigate the political climate better than most, I think in a general election, he'd do quite well. 

That's in a race where debates don't matter as much. Sustained attention and focus will make him wither, imo. But time will tell. If he even runs in '24 (which is incredibly likely, but way less if Trump decides to run again). 

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4 hours ago, ShortKing said:

I answered the question as written, but even if I could magic a federal government of my choosing, I think divided government has its own virtues to offer, especially in times such as these

Agree with this. I think a perfect government would be exactly 33% left wing, 33% centrist, 33% right wing.

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2 hours ago, Murrman104 said:

I took DeSantis as a real contender untill I actually listened to his voice. Man I dont think you can be president when you sound like that

Yeah, I thought DeSantis was a powerful candidate until I saw his stage presence. 

1) To be superficial, he's just too short and stocky and some people might not vote for him for that kind of superficial reasons. You have a lot of superficial voters. 

2) He does get really defensive and seems to throw really contrived tantrums. For instance, one time he went to a high school and threw a really inauthentic hissy fit because a kid was still wearing a mask. 

3) He mimicks Trump's hand gestures and stance when talking. You can find videos of this. It makes him seem more like a follower than a leader. 

4) I think he has decisive instincts as a governor, but he doesn't come off as necessarily that smart and hasn't the same "I know what's what"-brand of ignorance that Trump has the some people find appealing. 

5) He's kind of like the anti-Woke candidate, which means he's going to amp up negative partisanship, which means he's going to have that Trump factor of driving out opposition turnout, I think. 

In two years, I've gone from thinking DeSantis would be 99% likely to defeat Biden in 2024 to thinking he has about a 40% chance of beating Biden in 2024. 

I really think, of the GOP people in this poll, that Haley is stronger than Trump, DeSantis, or Pence. I think Tim Scott would be the best GOP candidate overall for president. He's likable enough to dilute negative partisanship somewhat. He's black enough to dilute black liberal turnout, potentially. He's conservative enough to keep the GOP base happy. He's overall a good candidate for the GOP. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Yeah, I thought DeSantis was a powerful candidate until I saw his stage presence. 

1) To be superficial, he's just too short and stocky and some people might not vote for him for that kind of superficial reasons. You have a lot of superficial voters. 

2) He does get really defensive and seems to throw really contrived tantrums. For instance, one time he went to a high school and threw a really inauthentic hissy fit because a kid was still wearing a mask. 

3) He mimicks Trump's hand gestures and stance when talking. You can find videos of this. It makes him seem more like a follower than a leader. 

4) I think he has decisive instincts as a governor, but he doesn't come off as necessarily that smart and hasn't the same "I know what's what"-brand of ignorance that Trump has the some people find appealing. 

5) He's kind of like the anti-Woke candidate, which means he's going to amp up negative partisanship, which means he's going to have that Trump factor of driving out opposition turnout, I think. 

In two years, I've gone from thinking DeSantis would be 99% likely to defeat Biden in 2024 to thinking he has about a 40% chance of beating Biden in 2024. 

I really think, of the GOP people in this poll, that Haley is stronger than Trump, DeSantis, or Pence. I think Tim Scott would be the best GOP candidate overall for president. He's likable enough to dilute negative partisanship somewhat. He's black enough to dilute black liberal turnout, potentially. He's conservative enough to keep the GOP base happy. He's overall a good candidate for the GOP. 

Hard agree on Tim Scott. He’s probably the strongest republican I could feasibly see getting past a primary.

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

I really think, of the GOP people in this poll, that Haley is stronger than Trump, DeSantis, or Pence. I think Tim Scott would be the best GOP candidate overall for president. He's likable enough to dilute negative partisanship somewhat. He's black enough to dilute black liberal turnout, potentially. He's conservative enough to keep the GOP base happy. He's overall a good candidate for the GOP. 

Agreed, Tim Scott, Nikki Haley, Glen Youngkin (and Liz Cheney who can't win a primary) is the GOP's Presidential bench A team

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On 10/17/2022 at 11:49 AM, WVProgressive said:

The government run by a super advanced artificial intelligence is a dream scenario, but it’s a bit unrealistic given our current tech, even for this hypothetical. My second choice would be a supermajority of non-partisan independent moderates since I wouldn’t trust any of the other factions to govern the country unchecked.

The government would be run by hackers

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3 hours ago, pilight said:

The government would be run by hackers

That is a possibility, though I’d hope that we’d have made several advances in cryptology, and computer security by the time AIs are ready to run the world.

Even still, I’d rather be ruled by hackers than corrupt politicians. A hacker smart enough to hack a Governmental Artificial Intelligence ought to be smarter than your average statesman at the very least.

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