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Predict the Next Prime Minister


vcczar
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Sunak will win. Johnson won't make the 100 MP limit and shouldn't. He resigned precisely because he couldn't command the loyalty of the party - exactly what Truss was forced out because of. If the Tories were smart, they'd pick someone like Mordaunt but they won't. 

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I'm just really shocked they don't require another election whenever someone is compelled to resign. They should at least require a vote for a new election, maybe some moderates or 3rd parties would join Labour in forcing such an election. 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I'm just really shocked they don't require another election whenever someone is compelled to resign. They should at least require a vote for a new election, maybe some moderates or 3rd parties would join Labour in forcing such an election. 

Why would moderates vote to bring about their own election loss? The conservatives are gonna get wiped at the next election, and a lot of those moderates would be defeating themselves a few years early by voting for a snap election.

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2 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Why would moderates vote to bring about their own election loss? The conservatives are gonna get wiped at the next election, and a lot of those moderates would be defeating themselves a few years early by voting for a snap election.

I would assume they’d try to build a coalition with Labour since, as you say, conservative will get wiped out. 

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2 hours ago, vcczar said:

I'm just really shocked they don't require another election whenever someone is compelled to resign. They should at least require a vote for a new election, maybe some moderates or 3rd parties would join Labour in forcing such an election. 

If marathoning The Crown has taught me anything, it's that Prime Ministers resign every two weeks or so.

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The answer to the "why isn't there an election" question that comes up whenever a Prime Minister resigns is that a Prime Minister is someone who can command the confidence of Parliament. Generally speaking a President is someone who is directly (or somewhat indirectly in the case of the United States) elected by the people. Aside from having the Head of Government title, Nancy Pelosi is much closer to being a Prime Minister than Joe Biden is, and there would be no demand for a national election if she resigned in the middle of a term. 

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On 10/20/2022 at 3:49 PM, vcczar said:

I would assume they’d try to build a coalition with Labour since, as you say, conservative will get wiped out. 

To do this, Labor would likely have to guarantee selection as their candidate in the new election. Otherwise, their seats would face a potential flip (due to the Tory wipeout). Not to mention that they would certainly be delisted by the Tories.

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On 10/20/2022 at 12:12 PM, vcczar said:

I wonder what the chance is that Boris Johnson somehow gets his job back. 

Dear God that chance appears to be getting bigger. There are literally MPs who said that he was unfit to run the country SIX WEEKS ago that are now backing him. How embarrassing. 

Not to mention, he's currently mired in an investigation in the Commons that ITV is reporting will likely result in him being slapped with a suspension. A suspension longer than 10 days triggers a by-election automatically in their constituency. Keep in mind, this is how his seat is looking right now with polling. Enter PM #4. 

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