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PA Debate: Oz vs Fetterman


vcczar
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Oz won by default, despite being something of a word salad. Fetterman’s stroke has left him unfit to really debate with a time limit, although I’m confident he can serve as Senator. It was really heartbreaking to watch him debate because you could tell he wanted to say more. Fortunately, these debates don’t do much, so it won’t tank him. Oz had some moments, especially avoiding to criticize China. 

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The fracking answer from Fetterman was both not great on the substance and also bad timing for particularly notable speech issues. Oz was his usual self, which is to say very clearly ill-suited for politics and campaigning, but Fetterman was painful to watch in this state and for multiple reasons, I think he should have declined to debate. 

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This debate won't tank Fetterman, I agree, but Oz's upward trend in the polls means this race will at least be even closer after tonight. Really just sad to watch. I'd like to know what the internal discussions were in the Fetterman campaign prior to tonight; They had to have anticipated he would perform poorly on stage.

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18 hours ago, WVProgressive said:

After this debate my gut is telling me that Blue-Ohio-Red-Pennsylvania is the most likely scenario. I know it probably won’t crush Fetterman, but this certainly isn’t going to help him in an already tightening race.

Oh yeah, especially now that this coming Tuesday they are doing a Townhall debate between JD Vance and Tim Ryan, I think Tim Ryan is going to do a lot better in a town hall, format debate, even though he won the first two debates already. Either way, I feel like the Ohio Senate race might be one of the closest races this year, it’s possible, we might not know the winner on election night. Tim Ryan is the best candidate the Democrats could’ve put up, you know other than cloning Sherrod Brown, or resurrecting John Glenn.

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1 hour ago, themiddlepolitical said:

This election cycle is an “I have no idea what’s going to happen” for me. I could easily see Fetterman losing, Warnock Losing, and Tim Ryan winning. I think OH will be the shocking state. 

Polls have been infrequent and leaning towards partisan polling companies. So it’s really hard to make my algorithm accurate this election. 

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17 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Polls have been infrequent and leaning towards partisan polling companies. So it’s really hard to make my algorithm accurate this election. 

Seriously, there have not been enough polls, and a lot of the big companies have sat out this cycle (probably because of 2020 trauma). At this point I just want a singular Kansas Governor poll because I swear there have been more South Dakota polls than Kansas polls.

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10 minutes ago, Rezi said:

Seriously, there have not been enough polls, and a lot of the big companies have sat out this cycle (probably because of 2020 trauma). At this point I just want a singular Kansas Governor poll because I swear there have been more South Dakota polls than Kansas polls.

Yeah almost no KS. I think a lot of pollsters are trying to figure out how to be more accurate, but you’d think they’d poll more to do that. 

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11 minutes ago, Rezi said:

Seriously, there have not been enough polls, and a lot of the big companies have sat out this cycle (probably because of 2020 trauma). At this point I just want a singular Kansas Governor poll because I swear there have been more South Dakota polls than Kansas polls.

The polls have been conducted, but the media won’t let them be released because they know it will show that liberal splitting their votes between Kelly, and Schmidt will lead to Dennis Pyle being elected.

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17 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I don't know what "win" means, in this context (debate-wise).

In my experience, "win" in an electoral debate context means that the "winner" delivered a performance which boosts their standing with voters. So, most people, as well as I, are expecting Oz to gain in the polls from this debate, as he is being considered the winner.

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10 minutes ago, The Blood said:

In my experience, "win" in an electoral debate context means that the "winner" delivered a performance which boosts their standing with voters. So, most people, as well as I, are expecting Oz to gain in the polls from this debate, as he is being considered the winner.

But...like...why?

I mean, I'm not stupid, I understand how debates work on paper.  But Fetterman and Oz are two wildly different people, how could there possibly be such a sizeable contingent that just couldn't decide between them before the debate?

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4 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

But...like...why?

I mean, I'm not stupid, I understand how debates work on paper.  But Fetterman and Oz are two wildly different people, how could there possibly be such a sizeable contingent that just couldn't decide between them before the debate?

I mean, it's a close Senate race in a swing state. Swing voters are a thing, and the polls for this race have already been narrowing. Modern voters are more polarized than in the past, but it can still be expected that a major media event like a debate can shift opinions.

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On 10/27/2022 at 12:22 PM, themiddlepolitical said:

This election cycle is an “I have no idea what’s going to happen” for me. I could easily see Fetterman losing, Warnock Losing, and Tim Ryan winning. I think OH will be the shocking state. 

Agree with this. Even though Vance has a +5% lead in the polls over Ryan (which is usually above the margin-of-error) I think it's way too early and inappropriate to count him out. Ryan has the same working-class appeal that Sherrod Brown has, and his ground game is impressive as well (it's not uncommon to see a Ryan sign in my 70% GOP neighborhood; one even has a DeWine sign next to it). I can see Ryan winning 0.5%. The silent-majority type that typically benefits populists and aren't caught by the polls will show for him. Nobody knows who Vance is and he doesn't have that appeal, he'll get the vote from people who usually check "(R)" and move on, but he doesn't have much more going for him other than that.

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8 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Agree with this. Even though Vance has a +5% lead in the polls over Ryan (which is usually above the margin-of-error) I think it's way too early and inappropriate to count him out. Ryan has the same working-class appeal that Sherrod Brown has, and his ground game is impressive as well (it's not uncommon to see a Ryan sign in my 70% GOP neighborhood; one even has a DeWine sign next to it). I can see Ryan winning 0.5%. The silent-majority type that typically benefits populists and aren't caught by the polls will show for him. Nobody knows who Vance is and he doesn't have that appeal, he'll get the vote from people who usually check "(R)" and move on, but he doesn't have much more going for him other than that.

My algorithm shows no chance for Ryan winning, unfortunately. 

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image.png.e2e63612a5e90bc32eba75983f9dca54.png

This is my prediction, with the highlighted states the ones that I would consider tossups but gun to my head, this is directionally where I think they'd end up going. There's still an outside chance of Masters winning in Arizona or Beasley in North Carolina, but this map is more or less what I'd expect to see. 

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