Jump to content
The Political Lounge

2022 Midterm Predictions A Week Ahead


Hestia
 Share

Recommended Posts

As everyone knows, today is November 1st! I'm creating this thread so everyone can have a place to put their midterm predictions. Feel free to be as specific or unspecific as you want, maps or no, etc. I'll be making my own later tonight, but I wanted to get this out there ahead of time! I don't want to see any "won't know until later"s because that's the point 😛 Feel free to do House, Senate, Gov, or any combo in between. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Senate: 

Ohio, Nevada, and Georgia are all my biggest tossups. I think Georgia can go to another runoff. But I'm gonna place my "bets" on this map. 

Capture.PNG.7aca82f969fca8831a15341ad3968d23.PNG

Gov

Arizona, Wisconsin, and Oregon/Nevada are my true "tossups." 

image.png.ac6e034a26ed3818ef706c09f82f1139.png

 

For the House I'm feeling a GOP majority less than 230. They probably get around 228 due to gains they'll get in the sun belt. But Dems will hold areas in the rust belt, and more moderate Democratic Reps will beat fringe GOP candidates that otherwise could've easily won. (Ex: Kaptur in Ohio, or Spanberger in Virginia.)

Edited by Pringles
  • Like 1
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am going in with the assumption that the election will make me sad. Either I'm going to be right or pleasantly surprised. Unless Rs actually outperform my dooming and get 53+, in which case there does not exist enough alcohol in the world.

image.png.07a9ce9c556ebad2029e27c895f7f363.png

image.png.67acfd620f2af7ad6f6bb148e47f70fc.png

Edited by Rezi
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

My Senate Predictions: image.png.d38f3ce8b286a702525641b6dc1a496a.png

I think if Dems overperform their polling, they could just barely hold on to their senate majority and maybe add a seat, but it'd take a pretty substantial polling miss to win in NC, WI, and/or OH. For the GOP, polls show they're really close in PA and GA and Laxalt's held on to a pretty stubborn lead in NV. I would personally put money on Kelly in AZ and Hassan in NH but their position seems precarious to me and the margin in FL could end up being tight but I just have trouble seeing Rubio losing this year. 

For Gov races:

image.png.7b276e8113f56f2173fae01679f4bd2e.png

I think Kotek's nationalized her race enough for partisanship to bail her out, I think Laura Kelly has managed to keep her race from nationalizing, which makes me feel good about her chances despite a lack of polling. Kari Lake has been a more talented candidate than I anticipated and Katie Hobbs has been less than impressive, which is unfortunate given that Arizona is likely to be a key 2024 state where you would ideally not have an election denier as Governor, but it is what it is. 

The House I am not gonna do a map for due to obvious reasons, but I would guess the GOP ends up around 235-240, more or less. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm going to go out on a huge limb here and predict that nothing in the Senate changes! Yay! 😛 I think Catherine Cortez Masto has done a good job at creating her own brand in Nevada, and there's some star power heading into the state (Obama and some others iirc) that could boost her at the right time. I could easily switch PA+NV, I think Dems may take one but not the other. I know early voting isn't much, but GA early vote #s have been extremely positive for Dems so far and I could see that going to a runoff that Warnock wins. I don't see Masters putting up a big challenge to Kelly (I think about a 5 point win there), similar in Wisconsin for Johnson. I think NC and OH will be closer than anticipated, but not enough to flip. I'm also curious about Utah and Florida how close those end up being.

image.png.d8cbb5bbe3689c558803288e1cf89cce.png

Governor Races! Admittedly I don't follow them as closely, but I think that Kelly has done a good job to stay ahead in KS. I don't see Tudor Dixon putting up much of a challenge against Whitmer in MI. WI will probably flip because of the national environment, same with NV. I think Hobbs holds on, which may be a controversial take, but it'll be very close. Kelly may drag her across the finish line by a point or so. OR could be close, but I do think the squeeze is being put on the independent in that race at the moment. 

image.png.1e3c9bf4085a072f08782f1873fb0802.png

 

House Prediction: My current prediction is 230 GOP - 205 Dem. I think we could see some wacky results in blue states for Republicans and in red states for Democrats. It's gonna be a complete mess.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Senate (I'm giving Masto the benefit of the doubt. Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio could all go either way. McMullin upset plz)

image.png.33099fc6ad3321380702d38ec4e740c5.png

Governor (I know nothing about Nevada but the polls seem to be giving it to the GOP. Oregon and Wisconsin could go both ways. Kansas has no polling and for partisanship's sake I'm giving it to Schmidt. Arizona is a bit of hopium to be completely honest but its not impossible.)

image.png.0ce79ebb825e510f7552078dc73976a9.png

House: GOP majority. Anywhere between 218-240

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Senate

56Xlzp.png

56Xlzp.png (1050×670) (270towin.com)

I think there's a high likelihood that Georgia goes to a runoff. Nevada is an interesting state in which Republicans are over-polled, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Dems end up holding that seat. Best case scenario for Dems is 51-49. Best case scenario for Republicans is 54-46. Though Republicans have a better chance at a longshot pickup.

 

Governors

ElXe.png

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-images/ElXe

Kansas is difficult to predict, so I gave a tilt advantage to the Dem, especially with the 3rd party in the race. I gave the Republican in Oregon a tilt because of the 3rd party, though this is also tough to predict. Both of those are most likely to go against my prediction.

 

House

Republican majority with around 235 seats

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, jvikings1 said:

Senate

56Xlzp.png

56Xlzp.png (1050×670) (270towin.com)

I think there's a high likelihood that Georgia goes to a runoff. Nevada is an interesting state in which Republicans are over-polled, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Dems end up holding that seat. Best case scenario for Dems is 51-49. Best case scenario for Republicans is 54-46. Though Republicans have a better chance at a longshot pickup.

 

Governors

ElXe.png

https://www.270towin.com/2022-governor-images/ElXe

Kansas is difficult to predict, so I gave a tilt advantage to the Dem, especially with the 3rd party in the race. I gave the Republican in Oregon a tilt because of the 3rd party, though this is also tough to predict. Both of those are most likely to go against my prediction.

 

House

Republican majority with around 235 seats

I think GA Sen will definitely be a run-off. I think in this, Democrats might be better with handling a run-off. The race will become more nationalized and I can see Walker being hit a lot harder than Warnock when both parties have all their power players in one state. My algorithm shows Walker winning on election day, but it doesn't take a run-off situation into account yet. So he could "win" the algoritm in November (have more votes than Warnock), but then lose during the run-off. 

If the GOP gets 235 seats after this election, it will tie for 5th most seats since 9/11, which means right in the middle since 5 House Election victories have been smaller.

1. 257-D (2008)   Obama wave against failed Bush admin

2. 247-R (2014)   Lowest turnout since 1942, likely mostly Democrats who had little be excited about or angry about.

3. 242-R (2010)   Reaction to Obamacare mandate

4. 241-R (2016)    Dems actually pick up 6 seats. Hodge podge of positive and negative reactions to Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Trump. 

5. 235-D (2018)  Reaction to Trump

At 235, I'd probably give the discription to that race as "Reaction to Inflation." I think if inflation wasn't a think that the GOP would get well below 235, although they could still win the House. The #235 is certainly possible, but that means GOP wins every single toss up in the consensus poll on 270towin. Or losses 1 or 2 and then scores an upset on a lean Democrat. 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...