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FINAL 2022 MIDTERM VCCZAR PROJECTION


vcczar
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FINAL PROJECTION

Here are my final projections. I am not nearly as confident in my algorithm to handle Midterms as I am in it handling general elections. I expect to get something or a few things wrong. My only total outlier from the pundit forecasts on 270towin is that I have AZ Sen going to the GOP, however. I think if my algorithm misses, it will be because Dems hold Sen AZ, PA, and GA--all of which I desperately hope is the case. The race I'm least confident about, due to limited polling, is the KS Gov race. My algorithm needs consistent weekly polling to function accurately. So my algorithm could miss here as well. 

I mention that I would do my own personal prediction, where I bet against my algorithm. I'm going to bet on my own homestate here. I've spent some time going through suburbs of Philadelphia and I still see 1 Oz sign for every 10 Fetterman signs at best. There's more voter enthusiasm, I think, for Fetterman than for Oz, and I think that squeaks out a narrow victory. I am also going to make another prediction since my algorithm only considers Election day. I think Warnock will lose today, but I think he will get a run off. I think the GA race will be so nationalized in the runoff that Warnock holds his seat. Walker's tactic the last two weeks is not to respond to questions. He won't be able to keep quiet for long after today. 

Overall, this is going to be a sad day for America and a hard two years. Imagine Walker on a committee, possibly also with Oz, trying to ask incisive questions during a senatorial hearing? Politics is becoming Reality TV. 

House Projections: 

I think the GOP wins between 225-234 seats. My algorithm doesn't work with house seats, so I'll just make a gut instinct. I'll say 230 seats. That is, GOP wins almost all the tossups and a couple of leans D.  

Senate Projections:

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Governor Projections:

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Indeed, since I haven't made any political bets this cycle yet and I didn't win the powerball last night, first person to give me a based reaction, I'll buy you a game on steam of your chosing $20 limit if Republicans take the Senate on the condition you do the same for me if Dems retain the Senate.

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2 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

I'm still betting Dems retain the Senate.

(Possible double post, internet issues)

I think the only shot at it is if the following occurs:

1. The other pundits are right and I'm wrong that AZ stays Blue

2. PA or NV upset for Fetterman or Cortez Masto (ideally both and both will be required if #1 doesn't happen). 

3. If not both of #2, then Warnock, even if he loses today, does well enough for a run-off and wins the run-off as the race is nationalized. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

I think the only shot at it is if the following occurs:

1. The other pundits are right and I'm wrong that AZ stays Blue

2. PA or NV upset for Fetterman or Cortez Masto (ideally both and both will be required if #1 doesn't happen). 

3. If not both of #2, then Warnock, even if he loses today, does well enough for a run-off and wins the run-off as the race is nationalized. 

AZ staying blue is my most confident prediction of the slate.

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1 minute ago, OrangeP47 said:

Indeed, since I haven't made any political bets this cycle yet and I didn't win the powerball last night, first person to give me a based reaction, I'll buy you a game on steam of your chosing $20 limit if Republicans take the Senate on the condition you do the same for me if Dems retain the Senate.

I will never gamble FOR the GOP. I think they'll win but I am in no way rooting for them, even in a gambling sense. 

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27 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think the only shot at it is if the following occurs:

1. The other pundits are right and I'm wrong that AZ stays Blue

2. PA or NV upset for Fetterman or Cortez Masto (ideally both and both will be required if #1 doesn't happen). 

3. If not both of #2, then Warnock, even if he loses today, does well enough for a run-off and wins the run-off as the race is nationalized. 

There's some anecdotal points saying turnout in Wisconsin is sky-high. I'm not ruling WI out yet entirely, but I wouldn't say its likely.

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8 minutes ago, Hestia said:

There's some anecdotal points saying turnout in Wisconsin is sky-high. I'm not ruling WI out yet entirely, but I wouldn't say its likely.

Turnout is really high in GA too, but it's strange polls to reflect any shift to Dems. 

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As someone who's university goal was to eventually work for 538 (and now has taken a different path) my "professional" opinion is all the polling experts are too scared of what incorrectly predicting the polls like 2016 and 2020 would do to their reputation that they're overcompensating.  Notice how their own models shift dem a bit if you take out the 'expert opinion weight' option, and then even more so if you select 'just the numbers' or whatever they call it.

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7 minutes ago, OrangeP47 said:

As someone who's university goal was to eventually work for 538 (and now has taken a different path) my "professional" opinion is all the polling experts are too scared of what incorrectly predicting the polls like 2016 and 2020 would do to their reputation that they're overcompensating.  Notice how their own models shift dem a bit if you take out the 'expert opinion weight' option, and then even more so if you select 'just the numbers' or whatever they call it.

I applied to work for them about 7 years ago. 

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1 minute ago, vcczar said:

I applied to work for them about 7 years ago. 

That's about when I graduated with my Masters in Polisci, but I had to take some time out of professional life due to medical reasons, and when I was ready to re-enter the workforce I didn't feel like much for politics, or really more importantly, moving from my current location.  I did some poling research of my own... probably around 2012. It was just an honors thesis, but I did present it at the Midwest Political Science Conference in Chicago.  TBH though my favorite part about that was getting to ride the amtrak.

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1 hour ago, OrangeP47 said:

Indeed, since I haven't made any political bets this cycle yet and I didn't win the powerball last night, first person to give me a based reaction, I'll buy you a game on steam of your chosing $20 limit if Republicans take the Senate on the condition you do the same for me if Dems retain the Senate.

You’re on my friend. Either I win the bet and get a game or the Democrats win the senate but I get a game. I’m happy either way 😛 

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