vcczar Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 FINAL PROJECTION Here are my final projections. I am not nearly as confident in my algorithm to handle Midterms as I am in it handling general elections. I expect to get something or a few things wrong. My only total outlier from the pundit forecasts on 270towin is that I have AZ Sen going to the GOP, however. I think if my algorithm misses, it will be because Dems hold Sen AZ, PA, and GA--all of which I desperately hope is the case. The race I'm least confident about, due to limited polling, is the KS Gov race. My algorithm needs consistent weekly polling to function accurately. So my algorithm could miss here as well. I mention that I would do my own personal prediction, where I bet against my algorithm. I'm going to bet on my own homestate here. I've spent some time going through suburbs of Philadelphia and I still see 1 Oz sign for every 10 Fetterman signs at best. There's more voter enthusiasm, I think, for Fetterman than for Oz, and I think that squeaks out a narrow victory. I am also going to make another prediction since my algorithm only considers Election day. I think Warnock will lose today, but I think he will get a run off. I think the GA race will be so nationalized in the runoff that Warnock holds his seat. Walker's tactic the last two weeks is not to respond to questions. He won't be able to keep quiet for long after today. Overall, this is going to be a sad day for America and a hard two years. Imagine Walker on a committee, possibly also with Oz, trying to ask incisive questions during a senatorial hearing? Politics is becoming Reality TV. House Projections: I think the GOP wins between 225-234 seats. My algorithm doesn't work with house seats, so I'll just make a gut instinct. I'll say 230 seats. That is, GOP wins almost all the tossups and a couple of leans D. Senate Projections: Governor Projections: @A man from Colorado @Alexander-Nicholas @Arkansas Progressive @Beetlejuice @Bloot911 @bradleyg223 @Brunell @Cenzonico @Cal @carbonmonoxide321 @ConservativeElector2 @DakotaHale @Dobs @DJBillyShakes @ebrk85 @Edouard @Entrecampos @Eugene @Fbarbarossa @Ghostie @Hestia @HiyarAgasi @Ich_bin_Tyler @Ishan @jnewt @Joe303300 @jvikings1 @Kitten @Largo833 @Lars @Murrman104 @Magnus Rex @Mark_W @mark2 @matthewyoung123 @MrPotatoTed @NYRepublican @OrangeP47 @Pringles @pilight @pman @Rezi @Rodja @SilentLiberty @ShortKing @Sean F Kennedy @The Blood @themiddlepolitical @Timur @TZMB @vcczar @Vols21 @vjw @WVProgressive @Willthescout7 @Zenobiyl 1 1 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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