Jump to content
The Political Lounge

FINAL 2022 MIDTERM VCCZAR PROJECTION


vcczar

Recommended Posts

From CNN below, but this has got me thinking, maybe Trump picks bad candidates because he doesn't want anyone outshining him. It's sort of like the stereotype of the attractive female friend that sets their guy friends up purposely with girls that are less attractive than her:

Former President Donald Trump "is livid” and “screaming at everyone” after last night’s disappointing GOP results in the midterms, a Trump adviser who has been in contact with Trump’s inner circle tells CNN. 

“Candidates matter,” the Trump adviser said. 

“They were all bad candidates,” the adviser continued, critiquing many of Trump’s handpicked contenders in key battleground states. 

This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, vcczar said:

From CNN below, but this has got me thinking, maybe Trump picks bad candidates because he doesn't want anyone outshining him. It's sort of like the stereotype of the attractive female friend that sets their guy friends up purposely with girls that are less attractive than her:

Former President Donald Trump "is livid” and “screaming at everyone” after last night’s disappointing GOP results in the midterms, a Trump adviser who has been in contact with Trump’s inner circle tells CNN. 

“Candidates matter,” the Trump adviser said. 

“They were all bad candidates,” the adviser continued, critiquing many of Trump’s handpicked contenders in key battleground states. 

This adviser said it’s unlikely Trump would delay his expected presidential announcement because “it’s too humiliating to delay.” But the adviser said there are too many unknowns at this point. 

To this point, it was notable that Trump held a rally in FL the Sunday before the election and notably invited Rubio but not RDS, and recently took aim at him calling him "Ron DeSanctimonious", perhaps because he realized it wasn't the most flattering contrast for him if RDS landslides in a state that Trump carried by 3 pts.

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I now think the Senate will be 50-50 at least. 

Kelly will win AZ. 

Cortez-Masto will probably lose, unless the remaining Clark County votes are heavily Democrat. 

Warnock will go to recount, but will win that recount. 

Barnes will probably lose, unless the remaining Milwaulkee votes are heavily Democrat. 

So 50-50, with the insane outside chance of 52-48, unless I got my math wrong. 

Can't see Dems saving the House, although they'll make it quite close. 

Several state governments are flipping Democrat, especialy in the Blue Wall area that Trump had cracked down in 2016.

What it looks like is that Democrats are rebuilding their Blue Wall. That would be devestating for the GOP in 2024 if that's the case. 

I'm feeling good even if the GOP takes the House. It's assumed an incumbent president will face losses. This is kind of a win for Blue. 

What was the bigger factor? Trump+MAGA? Overturning Roe? Biden's major speech about Democracy threatened? Obama? It certainly isn't Biden's approval, inflation, etc. 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Despite the House likely switching to Republican control, Democrats are still on track to have a great midterm outcome. The president’s party typically loses seats during midterm elections, but this year is shaping up to be the best outcome for the president’s party since 1950, given the president’s approval rating.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...