vcczar Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I'll be doing this state by state. Darkest color = 60% + of the vote won by the winning party. This also means if two GOPers in a race combine for over 60% of the voter, they'll go here. Medium color = 55%-59.9% Lighest Color = less than 55% ALABAMA 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Riley Bentley Bentley Bentley Bentley Ivey Ivey Ivey Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Britt Sessions Sessions Sessions Sessions Sessions Jones Tuberville Tuberville Bonner Bonner Bonner Byrne Byrne Byrne Carl Carl Bright Roby Roby Roby Roby Roby Moore Moore Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Griffith Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Strong Bachus Bachus Bachus Palmer Palmer Palmer Palmer Palmer Davis Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Aside from Roy Moore allowing a Democratic victory in 2018, the GOP seems to be as strong in AL as they have been since the 2010 reaction to Obamacare. Sewell represents the "black belt." 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 ARKANSAS 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 W N McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Beebe Beebe Beebe Hutchinson Hutchinson Hutchinson Hutchinson Huckabee Sanders Pryor Pryor Pryor Cotton Cotton Cotton Cotton Cotton Lincoln Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Berry Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Snyder Griffin Griffin Hill Hill Hill Hill Hill Boozman Womack Womack Womack Womack Womack Womack Womack Ross Ross Cotton Westerman Westerman Westerman Westerman Westerman Had to skip AZ and AK for now. As for Arkansas, the W denotes a wave election, and the N denotes a noticable shift. The reaction to Obamacare killed the Democrats, and whatever the major issue was in 2014, I forget off the top of my head (economy? Arab Spring? DACA/DAPA?) killed them off for the time being. Arkansas shows no signs of a Democrat return at the moment. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 Hawaii 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Lingle Abercrombie Abercrombie Ige Ige Ige Ige Green Akaka Akaka Hirono Hirono Hirono HIrono Hirono Hirono Inouye Inouye Inouye Schatz Schatz Schatz Schatz Schatz Abercrombie Hanabusa Hanabusa Takai Hanabusa Case Case Case Hirono Hirono Gabbard Gabbard Gabbard Gabbard Kahele Tokuda This state has been solid Blue since 2010. One of the few states that went Bluer in that midterm. This state doesn't seem to be showing any signs of become any redder. It's so strange that MAGA-friendly Gabbard represented this state. She's flip-flopped so much in her life that she probably hasn't any credibility left. She's sort of become the alternate Liz Cheney. Whereas Cheney is going around the country endorsing Democrats, Gabbard is endorsing Republicans (including Herschel Walker). Unlike Cheney, I think Gabbard does try to position herself for the 2024 GOP ticket one way or another. I think that would be poison to GOP chances, so they'll smartly rule it out, unless maybe Trump is the nominee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 Idaho 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Otter Otter Otter Otter Otter Little Little Little Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Minnick Labrador Labrador Labrador Labrador Fulcher Fulcher Fulcher Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Minnick is an outlier here. Aside from this one term, there hasn't been a Democrat elected since 1992. I should note that Little and Crappo hit the 60% to get a dark red shade here by less than 1%. Idaho is one of the more rapidly growing states, which generally means the state becomes more liberal as urban areas get bigger. I don't see a purple Idaho anytime soon though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 Kentucky 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Beshear (2007) Beshear Beshear (2011) Beshear Bevin (2015) Bevin Beshear (2019) Beshear Bunning Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Comer Comer Comer Comer Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth McGarvey Davis Davis Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Chandler Chandler Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr Bevin interrupts the terms of Beshear the father and Beshear the son. Barr, after two relatively rockey elections, seems to have been solidly reelected for the first time since 2016, for whatever reason. I knew Charles Booker couldn't win, but I was hoping he'd at least knock Paul down a shade. Booker would be a good candidate in another state. I'm kind of doubting Beshear gets reelected in 2023. He lucked out with beating a scandalous Bevin. A generic Republican, even a generic MAGA Republican, could probably beat Beshear. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 10, 2022 Author Share Posted November 10, 2022 Louisiana 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Jindal (2007) Jindal Jindal (2011) Jindal Edwards (2015) Edwards Edwards (2019) Edwards Landrieu Landrieu Landrieu Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Vitter Vitter Vitter Vitter Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Cao Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Carter Melancon Landry Boustany Boustany Higgins Higgins Higgins Higgins Fleming Fleming Fleming Fleming Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Alexander Alexander Alexander Abraham Abraham Abraham Letlow Letlow Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Graves Graves Graves Graves Graves Boustany Boustany This state, aside from the New Orleans area, is solid red. The next governor will likely be a Republican. Edwards barely won reelection in 2019 despite arguably being the most moderate Democrat in America. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 3 hours ago, vcczar said: Kentucky 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Beshear (2007) Beshear Beshear (2011) Beshear Bevin (2015) Bevin Beshear (2019) Beshear Bunning Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Comer Comer Comer Comer Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth McGarvey Davis Davis Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Chandler Chandler Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr Bevin interrupts the terms of Beshear the father and Beshear the son. Barr, after two relatively rockey elections, seems to have been solidly reelected for the first time since 2016, for whatever reason. I knew Charles Booker couldn't win, but I was hoping he'd at least knock Paul down a shade. Booker would be a good candidate in another state. I'm kind of doubting Beshear gets reelected in 2023. He lucked out with beating a scandalous Bevin. A generic Republican, even a generic MAGA Republican, could probably beat Beshear. Barr's district is the swingiest in the state because of Lexington's presence in it. In a good year for Dems, like 2018, it can be flipped (like it almost was). This year he went against a crazy guy, which explains his unusually large margin compared with past results. Also, I think Beshear will end up a tougher challenge for Republicans than people might expect. It will be a nasty GOP primary, and he has benefitted from Kentucky's simple majority veto override (he can veto stuff without being an obstruction). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 New Hampshire 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 N N Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Lynch Lynch Hassan Hassan Sununu Sununu Sununu Sununu Gregg Ayotte Ayotte Ayotte Hassan Hassan Hassan Hassan Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shea-Porter Guinta Shea-Porter Guinta Shea-Porter Pappas Pappas Pappas Hodes Bass Kuster Kuster Kuster Kuster Kuster Kuster An N denotes a notable shift. Reaction to Obamacare saw NH gain two GOP reps, but Obama's reelection wiped them out again. Guinta returned once more, but the GOP hasn't had a US Rep or a US Sen in NH sin the Trump era. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 New Jersey 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 N Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Corzine Christie (2009) Christie Christie (2013) Christie Murphy (2017) Murphy Murphy (2021) Lautenberg Lautenberg Lautenberg Booker Booker Booker Booker Booker Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Andrews Andrews Andrews Norcross Norcross Norcross Norcross Norcross LoBiondo LoBiondo LoBiondo LoBiondo LoBiondo Van Drew Van Drew Van Drew Adler Runyan Runyan MacArthur MacArthur Kim Kim Kim Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Garrett Garrett Garrett Garrett Gottheimer Gottheimer Gottheimer Gottheimer Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Lance Lance Lance Lance Lance Malinowski Malinowski Kean Pascrell Pascrell Sires Sires Sires Sires Sires Menendez Rothman Rothman Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Sherrill Sherrill Sherrill Holt Holt Holt Coleman Coleman Coleman Coleman Coleman Sires Sires n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a This was a rare 2022 state with only US Rep elections. There used to be a much more conservative presence in NJ, which has the highest population density of any state. For this reason, I think Democrats will always have an advantage here. Reaction against Trump in 2018 saw the end of four GOP-controlled offices, leaving only Rep. Smith. Van Drew switched parties prior to 2020, giving the GOP one more seat. Kean, a NJ political dynasty member, was a big pickup for GOP in 2022. Democrats only positive, aside from holding all other seats, was that Democrats improved in Sherrill's district from 2020 to 2022. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wyoming 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Freudenthal Meade Meade Meade Meade Gordon Gordon Gordon Barrasso (S) Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Enzi Enzi Enzi Enzi Enzi Enzi Lummis Lummis Lummis Lummis Lummis Lummis Cheney Cheney Cheney Hageman Wyoming use to have Democratic governors with some consistency, although the state has generally been reliably Red, even before Obama. Cheney was defeated in the primaries, but I think it's worth knowing that Hageman score 6% lower than Gordon in 2022, which suggests that some Cheney loyalists may have endorsed the Democrat, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Wisconsin 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 W Obama Obama Obama Obama Trump Trump Biden Biden Doyle Walker Walker (R) Walker Walker Evers Evers Evers Feingold Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Kohl Kohl Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Steil Steil Steil Baldwin Baldwin Pocan Pocan Pocan Pocan Pocan Pocan Kind Kind Kind Kind Kind Kind Kind Van Orden Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Fitzgerald Fitzgerald Petri Petri Petri Grothman Grothman Grothman Grothman Grothman Obey Duffy Duffy Duffy Duffy Duffy Tiffany Tiffany Kagen Ribble Ribble Ribble Gallagher Gallagher Gallagher Gallagher Look how Blue Wisconsin was in 2008. Reaction to Obamacare saw the state turn majority Red. Reaction to Trump saw Evers get his first term. It's interesting that Sen. Johnson has never barely won an election. Grothman, who saw a dip in support in 2020, won unopposed in 2022. GOP picked up Van Orden, but Democrats got close to flipping Steil's seat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 West Virginia 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 N McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Manchin Manchin Tomblin Tomblin Justice Justice Justice Justice Byrd Manchin (S) Manchin Manchin Manchin Manchin Manchin Manchin Rockefeller Rockefeller Rockefeller Capito Capito Capito Capito Capito Mollohan McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley Miller Capito Capito Capito Mooney Mooney Mooney Mooney Mooney Rahall Rahall Rahall Jenkins Jenkins Miller Miller This state rapidly shifted. Strangely, the major shift wasn't as a reaction to Obamacare in 2010, which is when a lot of shifting occurred. WV made its break to the GOP during Obama's 2nd midterms. This is one of only a handful of states that seems to genuinely like Trump, as shown with the GOP growth during Trump's awful midterm election in 2018. Manchin barely held on. Justice flipped to the GOP to save his job. I don't expect Manchin to win reelection, should he choose to run again in 2024. He would have to flip parties. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Virginia 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 N N N Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Kaine McDonnell (2009) McDonnell McAuliffe (2013) McAuliffe Northam (2017) Northam Youngkin (2021) Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Webb Webb Kaine Kaine Kaine Kaine Kaine Kaine Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Nye Rigell Rigell Rigell Taylor Luria Luria Kiggans Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Forbes Forbes Forbes Forbes McEachin McEachin McEachin McEachin Perriello Hurt Hurt Hurt Garrett Riggleman Good Good Goodlatte Goodlatte Goodlatte Goodlatte Goodlatte Cline Cline Cline Cantor Cantor Cantor Brat Brat Spanberger Spanberger Spanberger Moran Moran Moran Beyer Beyer Beyer Beyer Beyer Boucher Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Wolf Wolf Wolf Comstock Comstock Wexton Wexton Wexton Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Obama's election, along with urban sprawl from DC, has converted Virginia from a Purple state to a Leans Blue state. It's kind of like the Democrat's Florida, which is now a Lean Red state. Obama's 2008 election saw Dems take a ton of seats. There was a slight movement back in reaction to Obamacare in 2010, but Obama's reelection in 2012, kept Blue Momemntum going. The state was STRONGLY repulsed by Trump, which can been seen with the 2018 Midterm reaction. The 2022 Midterms saw a usually red district return to the GOP, but other than that, this election is status quo. I'm a little curious if Youngkin can win reelection, especially while Northern Virginia continues to grow. He might run for president just to avoid a reelection defeat as governor, if Democrats manage to find a scandal-free Virginian Democrat of some name recognition to run in the election. Sadly, that's a big if. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShortKing Posted November 11, 2022 Share Posted November 11, 2022 2 hours ago, vcczar said: I'm a little curious if Youngkin can win reelection The Virginia state constitution does not allow Governors to run for reelection, Youngkin will be term-limited out in 2025, he would have to wait until 2029 to run for a second term. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, ShortKing said: The Virginia state constitution does not allow Governors to run for reelection, Youngkin will be term-limited out in 2025, he would have to wait until 2029 to run for a second term. Oh yeah, that's right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 11, 2022 Author Share Posted November 11, 2022 Florida 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Obama Obama Obama Obama Trump Trump Trump Trump Crist Scott Scott Scott Scott DeSantis DeSantis DeSantis Nelson Nelson Nelson Nelson Nelson Scott Scott Scott Martinez Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Miller Miller Miller Miller Gaetz Gaetz Gaetz Gaetz Boyd Southerland Southerland Graham Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn Brown Brown Yoho Yoho Yoho Yoho Cammack Cammack Crenshaw Crenshaw Crenshaw Crenshaw Rutherford Rutherford Rutherford Bean Brown-Waite Nugent Brown Brown Lawson Lawson Lawson Rutherford Stearns Stearns DeSantis DeSantis DeSantis Waltz Waltz Waltz Mica Mica Mica Mica Murphy Murphy Murphy Mills Grayson Webster Posey Posey Posey Posey Posey Posey Billirakis Billirakis Grayson Grayson Soto Soto Soto Soto Young Young Webster Webster Demings Demings Demings Frost Castor Castor Nugent Nugent Webster Webster Webster Webster Putnam Ross Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Buchanan Buchanan Young Jolly Crist Crist Crist Luna Mack Mack Castor Castor Castor Castor Castor Castor Posey Posey Ross Ross Ross Spano Franklin Lee Rooney Rooney Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Meek Wilson Rooney Rooney Rooney Steube Steube Steube Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen Murphy Murphy Mast Mast Mast Franklin Wexler Wexler Radel Clawson Clawson Rooney Donalds Donalds Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Hastings Hastings Hastings Hastings Hastings Cherfilus-McCormick Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Deutch Deutch Deutch Frankel Frankel Mast Klein West Frankel Frankel Frankel Deutch Deutch Frankel Hastings Hastings Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Moskowitz Kosmas Adams Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Diaz-Balart Rivera Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Wasserman Schultz n/a n/a Garcia Curbelo Curbelo Mucarsei-Powell Gimenez Diaz-Balart n/a n/a Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen Shalala Salazar Salazar Gimenez I don't think Florida is a purple state anymore. It's the Republican's version of Virginia. Florida and New York might be the only states that had a Red Wave in the otherwise weak 2022 midterm showing by Republicans. It seems like, because of gerrymandering, Democrats will likely only have a shot of converting 4 of these seats, even if Biden has something like a 55% approval going into reelection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 13, 2022 Author Share Posted November 13, 2022 Georgia 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 W McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Biden Biden Perdue Deal Deal Deal Deal Kemp Kemp Kemp Chambliss Chambliss Chambliss Perdue Perdue Perdue Ossoff Ossoff Isakson Isakson Isakson Isakson Isakson Isakson/Loeffler Warnock (S) ? Kingston Kingston Kingston Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Westmoreland Westmoreland Westmoreland Westmoreland Ferguson Ferguson Ferguson Ferguson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Lewis Lewis Lewis Lewis Lewis Lewis Williams Williams Price Price Price Price Price/Handel McBath McBath McCormick Linder Woodall Woodall Woodall Woodall Woodall Bourdeaux McBath Marshall Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Deal Graves Collins Collins Collins Collins Clyde Clyde Norwood Broun Broun Hice Hice Hice Hice Collins Gingrey Gingrey Gingrey Loudermilk Loudermilk Loudermilk Loudermilk Loudermilk Barrow Barrow Barrow Allen Allen Allen Allen Allen Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott n/a n/a Graves Graves Graves Graves Greene Greene Warnock vs Walker is still to be decided, but I'll be shocked if Warnock doesn't win. Formerly a strongly Red State. Huge difference if you compare 2016 to 2020. The state either really liked Trump or really disliked Hillary Clinton or both in 2016. By 2020, they just want to get rid of him. Although Abrams's 2nd defeat wasn't as close to victory as her first match with Kemp, she was within range for making Kemp a light red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Illinois 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 N N Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Blagojevich Quinn Quinn Rauner Rauner Pritzker Pritzker Pritzker Obama/Burris Kirk Kirk Kirk Duckworth Duckworth Duckworth Duckworth Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Jackson Jackson Jackson Jackson Kelly Jackson Jackson Kelly Kelly Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Newman Ramirez Gutierrez Gutierrez Gutierrez Gutierrez Gutierrez Garcia Garcia Garcia Emanuel Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Roskam Roskam Roskam Roskam Roskam Casten Casten Casten Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Bean Walsh Duckworth Duckworth Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Kirk Dold Schneider Dold Schneider Schneider Schneider Schneider Halvorson Kinzinger Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Costello Costello Enyart Bost Bost Bost Bost Bost Biggert Biggert Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Budzinski Foster Holtgren Holtgren Holtgren Holtgren Underwood Underwood Underwood Johnson Johnson Shimkus Shimkus Shimkus Shimkus Miller Miller Manzullo Manzullo Kinzinger Kinzinger Kinzinger Kinzinger Kinzinger LaHood Hare Schilling Bustos Bustos Bustos Bustos Bustos Sorensen Schock Schock Schock Schock LaHood LaHood LaHood Shimkus Shimkus n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a This used to be one of the power states, but it's shrinking. It's lost two EVs now since 2008. I think if moderate Republicans ever take their party back, that IL could become much more Red. States losing EVs typically do. Republicans would have to shake off MAGA to have any shot of taking advantage of changing this state. For now, similar to the situation in NY/NYC, Chicago so dominates the state that it will take decades for any real noticeable shift, I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Connecticut 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Rell Malloy Malloy Malloy Malloy Lamont Lamont Lamont Dodd Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Lieberman Lieberman Murphy Murphy Murphy Murphy Murphy Murphy Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Murphy Murphy Esty Esty Esty Hayes Hayes Hayes The GOP has been locked out of this state since 2010. Cracks are starting to show in CT and in RI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Delaware 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Markell Markell Markell Markell Carney Carney Carney Carney Biden/Kaufman Coons Coons Coons Coons Coons Coons Coons Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Castle Carney Carney Carney Rochester Rochester Rochester Rochester GOP has been locked out since 2010. Despite a somewhat closer race for DE-1, the state is unlikely to shift parties. If you've been to DE and looked at it, it requires the sort of legislation to function that only Democrats offer. Same goes for any state that is heavy in urbanization and limited in open land. A Larry Hogan-type gov is the best the GOP could hope for in this state. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Indiana 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 W Obama Obama Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Daniels Daniel Pence Pence Holcomb Holcomb Holcomb Holcomb Bayh Coats Coats Coats Young Young Young Young Lugar Lugar Donnelly Donnelly Donnelly Braun Braun Braun Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Mrvan Mrvan Donnelly Donnelly Walorsky Walorsky Walorsky Walorsky Walorsky Yakym Souder Stutzman Stutzman Stutzman Banks Banks Banks Banks Buyer Rokita Rokita Rokita Rokita Baird Baird Baird Burton Burton Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Spartz Spartz Pence Pence Messer Messer Messer Pence Pence Pence Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Ellsworth Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Hill Young Young Young Hollingsworth Hollingsworth Hollingsworth Houchin Reaction to Obamacare killed any balance between the two major parties here, which is odd since Obama campaigned partially on healthcare and won IN in the 2008 election! Obama's reelection, strangely, helped Donnelly gain the seat. By the time of Trump, IN was clearly going the way of OH, which was going the way of WV. Despite devastating losses in Trump's midterms, Indiana gave the GOP Sen. Braun. As you can see, 2022 almost flipped Mrvan's district too. Democrats are almost gone, aside from Carson's Indianapolis district. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Iowa 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 N N N N Obama Obama Obama Obama Trump Trump Trump Trump Culver Branstad Branstad Branstad Branstad Reynolds Reynolds Reynolds Harken Harken Harken Ernst Ernst Ernst Ernst Ernst Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Braley Braley Braley Blum Blum Finkenauer Hinson Miller-Meeks Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Miller-Meeks Hinson Boswell Boswell Latham Young Young Axne Axne Nunn Latham Latham King King King King Feenstra Feenstra King King Remember when this was a battleground state? While not terribly reactive to Obamacare, the state seemed to be bothered by something after the 2012 election as the state became clearly Red, and it hasn't yet returned. The state was one of the regret-a-Trump states in 2018, but it seemed to fall back in line by 2020. Democrats were wiped for the first time since 1954 in the 2022 Midterms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Kansas N N McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump Sebelius Brownback Brownback Brownback Brownback Kelly Kelly Kelly Roberts Roberts Roberts Roberts Roberts Roberts Marshall Marshall Brownback Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran Huelskamp Huelskamp Huelskamp Marshall Marshall Mann Mann Jenkins Jenkins Jenkins Jenkins Jenkins Watkins LaTurner LaTurner Moore Yoder Yoder Yoder Yoder Davids Davids Davids Tiahrt Pompeo Pompeo Pompeo Pompeo Estes Estes Estes It's hard to predict what is going on here. Kelly and Davids seem like such outliers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Maryland 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden O'Malley O'Malley O'Malley Hogan Hogan Hogan Hogan Moore Mikulski Mikulski Mikulski Mikulski Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Kratovil Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Edwards Edwards Edwards Edwards Brown Brown Brown Ivey Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Bartlett Bartlett Delaney Delaney Delaney Trone Trone Trone Cummings Cummings Cummings Cummings Cummings Cummings Mfume Mfume Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Raskins Raskins Raskins Raskins Solid blue. If this weren't a midterm and the GOP had the same candidates, this state might have wiped out the GOP. Hogan was a popular governor, but his party was not. Incoming Gov Moore is getting a lot of hype---the "could be president some day" hype. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vcczar Posted November 14, 2022 Author Share Posted November 14, 2022 Massachusetts 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden Patrick Patrick Patrick Baker Baker Baker Baker Healey Kerry Kerry Kerry Markey Markey Markey Markey Markey Kennedy Brown (S) Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Olver Olver Neal Neal Neal Neal Neal Neal Neal Neal McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern Tsongas Tsongas Tsongas Trahan Trahan Trahan Frank Frank Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Auchincloss Auchincloss Tsongas Tsongas Markey Clark Clark Clark Clark Clark Tierney Tierney Tierney Moulton Moulton Moulton Moulton Moulton Markey Markey Capuano Capuano Capuano Pressley Pressley Pressley Capuano Capuano Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Keating Keating Keating Keating Keating Keating Delahunt Keating GOP wiped out for the first time since 2012. Like with Hogan in MD, Baker was popular but his party is not. I was hearing recently that Aiyanna Pressley is the frontrunner to replace Markey whenever he should retire. I have a feeling JP Kennedy III might try to make another attempt for that seat should he retire; however, I'm not sure why there is Markey rumors of retirement. He's 4 years younger than Biden. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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