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State-by-State Election Results (2008-2022)


vcczar
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I'll be doing this state by state. 

Darkest color = 60% + of the vote won by the winning party. This also means if two GOPers in a race combine for over 60% of the voter, they'll go here. 

Medium color = 55%-59.9%

Lighest Color = less than 55%

ALABAMA

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Riley Bentley Bentley Bentley Bentley Ivey Ivey Ivey
Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Shelby Britt
Sessions Sessions Sessions Sessions Sessions Jones Tuberville Tuberville
Bonner Bonner Bonner Byrne Byrne Byrne Carl Carl
Bright Roby Roby Roby Roby Roby Moore Moore
Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers
Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt Aderholt
Griffith Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Strong
Bachus Bachus Bachus Palmer Palmer Palmer Palmer Palmer
Davis Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell Sewell

Aside from Roy Moore allowing a Democratic victory in 2018, the GOP seems to be as strong in AL as they have been since the 2010 reaction to Obamacare. Sewell represents the "black belt."

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ARKANSAS

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
  W   N        
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Beebe Beebe Beebe Hutchinson Hutchinson Hutchinson Hutchinson Huckabee Sanders
Pryor Pryor Pryor Cotton Cotton Cotton Cotton Cotton
Lincoln Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman Boozman
Berry Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford Crawford
Snyder Griffin Griffin Hill Hill Hill Hill Hill
Boozman Womack Womack Womack Womack Womack Womack Womack
Ross Ross Cotton Westerman Westerman Westerman Westerman Westerman

Had to skip AZ and AK for now. As for Arkansas, the W denotes a wave election, and the N denotes a noticable shift. The reaction to Obamacare killed the Democrats, and whatever the major issue was in 2014, I forget off the top of my head (economy? Arab Spring? DACA/DAPA?) killed them off for the time being. Arkansas shows no signs of a Democrat return at the moment. 

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Hawaii

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Lingle Abercrombie Abercrombie Ige Ige Ige Ige Green
Akaka Akaka Hirono Hirono Hirono HIrono Hirono Hirono
Inouye Inouye Inouye Schatz Schatz Schatz Schatz Schatz
Abercrombie Hanabusa Hanabusa Takai Hanabusa Case Case Case
Hirono Hirono Gabbard Gabbard Gabbard Gabbard Kahele Tokuda

This state has been solid Blue since 2010. One of the few states that went Bluer in that midterm. This state doesn't seem to be showing any signs of become any redder. It's so strange that MAGA-friendly Gabbard represented this state. She's flip-flopped so much in her life that she probably hasn't any credibility left. She's sort of become the alternate Liz Cheney. Whereas Cheney is going around the country endorsing Democrats, Gabbard is endorsing Republicans (including Herschel Walker). Unlike Cheney, I think Gabbard does try to position herself for the 2024 GOP ticket one way or another. I think that would be poison to GOP chances, so they'll smartly rule it out, unless maybe Trump is the nominee. 

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Idaho

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Otter Otter Otter Otter Otter Little Little Little
Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch Risch
Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo Crapo
Minnick Labrador Labrador Labrador Labrador Fulcher Fulcher Fulcher
Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson Simpson

 

Minnick is an outlier here. Aside from this one term, there hasn't been a Democrat elected since 1992. I should note that Little and Crappo hit the 60% to get a dark red shade here by less than 1%. Idaho is one of the more rapidly growing states, which generally means the state becomes more liberal as urban areas get bigger. I don't see a purple Idaho anytime soon though. 

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Kentucky

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Beshear (2007) Beshear Beshear (2011) Beshear Bevin (2015) Bevin Beshear (2019) Beshear
Bunning Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul
McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell
Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Comer Comer Comer Comer
Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie
Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth McGarvey
Davis Davis Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie
Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers
Chandler Chandler Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr

Bevin interrupts the terms of Beshear the father and Beshear the son. Barr, after two relatively rockey elections, seems to have been solidly reelected for the first time since 2016, for whatever reason. I knew Charles Booker couldn't win, but I was hoping he'd at least knock Paul down a shade. Booker would be a good candidate in another state. I'm kind of doubting Beshear gets reelected in 2023. He lucked out with beating a scandalous Bevin. A generic Republican, even a generic MAGA Republican, could probably beat Beshear. 

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Louisiana

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Jindal (2007) Jindal Jindal (2011) Jindal Edwards (2015) Edwards Edwards (2019) Edwards
Landrieu Landrieu Landrieu Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy
Vitter Vitter Vitter Vitter Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy
Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise Scalise
Cao Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Richmond Carter
Melancon Landry Boustany Boustany Higgins Higgins Higgins Higgins
Fleming Fleming Fleming Fleming Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson
Alexander Alexander Alexander Abraham Abraham Abraham Letlow Letlow
Cassidy Cassidy Cassidy Graves Graves Graves Graves Graves
Boustany Boustany            

This state, aside from the New Orleans area, is solid red. The next governor will likely be a Republican. Edwards barely won reelection in 2019 despite arguably being the most moderate Democrat in America. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

Kentucky

 

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Beshear (2007) Beshear Beshear (2011) Beshear Bevin (2015) Bevin Beshear (2019) Beshear
Bunning Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul Paul
McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell McConnell
Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Whitfield Comer Comer Comer Comer
Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie Guthrie
Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth Yarmuth McGarvey
Davis Davis Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie Massie
Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers Rogers
Chandler Chandler Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr Barr

Bevin interrupts the terms of Beshear the father and Beshear the son. Barr, after two relatively rockey elections, seems to have been solidly reelected for the first time since 2016, for whatever reason. I knew Charles Booker couldn't win, but I was hoping he'd at least knock Paul down a shade. Booker would be a good candidate in another state. I'm kind of doubting Beshear gets reelected in 2023. He lucked out with beating a scandalous Bevin. A generic Republican, even a generic MAGA Republican, could probably beat Beshear. 

Barr's district is the swingiest in the state because of Lexington's presence in it. In a good year for Dems, like 2018, it can be flipped (like it almost was). This year he went against a crazy guy, which explains his unusually large margin compared with past results.

Also, I think Beshear will end up a tougher challenge for Republicans than people might expect. It will be a nasty GOP primary, and he has benefitted from Kentucky's simple majority veto override (he can veto stuff without being an obstruction).

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New Hampshire

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
  N N          
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Lynch Lynch Hassan Hassan Sununu Sununu Sununu Sununu
Gregg Ayotte Ayotte Ayotte Hassan Hassan Hassan Hassan
Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen Shaheen
Shea-Porter Guinta Shea-Porter Guinta Shea-Porter Pappas Pappas Pappas
Hodes Bass Kuster Kuster Kuster Kuster Kuster Kuster

An N denotes a notable shift. Reaction to Obamacare saw NH gain two GOP reps, but Obama's reelection wiped them out again. Guinta returned once more, but the GOP hasn't had a US Rep or a US Sen in NH sin the Trump era. 

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New Jersey

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
          N    
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Corzine Christie (2009) Christie Christie (2013) Christie Murphy (2017) Murphy Murphy (2021)
Lautenberg Lautenberg Lautenberg Booker Booker Booker Booker Booker
Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez Menendez
Andrews Andrews Andrews Norcross Norcross Norcross Norcross Norcross
LoBiondo LoBiondo LoBiondo LoBiondo LoBiondo Van Drew Van Drew Van Drew
Adler Runyan Runyan MacArthur MacArthur Kim Kim Kim
Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith Smith
Garrett Garrett Garrett Garrett Gottheimer Gottheimer Gottheimer Gottheimer
Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone Pallone
Lance Lance Lance Lance Lance Malinowski Malinowski Kean
Pascrell Pascrell Sires Sires Sires Sires Sires Menendez
Rothman Rothman Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell Pascrell
Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne Payne
Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Freylinghuysen Sherrill Sherrill Sherrill
Holt Holt Holt Coleman Coleman Coleman Coleman Coleman
Sires Sires n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a  

This was a rare 2022 state with only US Rep elections. There used to be a much more conservative presence in NJ, which has the highest population density of any state. For this reason, I think Democrats will always have an advantage here. Reaction against Trump in 2018 saw the end of four GOP-controlled offices, leaving only Rep. Smith. Van Drew switched parties prior to 2020, giving the GOP one more seat. Kean, a NJ political dynasty member, was a big pickup for GOP in 2022. Democrats only positive, aside from holding all other seats, was that Democrats improved in Sherrill's district from 2020 to 2022. 

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Wyoming

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Freudenthal Meade Meade Meade Meade Gordon Gordon Gordon
Barrasso (S) Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso Barrasso
Enzi Enzi Enzi Enzi Enzi Enzi Lummis Lummis
Lummis Lummis Lummis Lummis Cheney Cheney Cheney Hageman

Wyoming use to have Democratic governors with some consistency, although the state has generally been reliably Red, even before Obama. Cheney was defeated in the primaries, but I think it's worth knowing that Hageman score 6% lower than Gordon in 2022, which suggests that some Cheney loyalists may have endorsed the Democrat,

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Wisconsin

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
  W            
Obama Obama Obama Obama Trump Trump Biden Biden
Doyle Walker Walker (R) Walker Walker Evers Evers Evers
Feingold Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson
Kohl Kohl Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin Baldwin
Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Ryan Steil Steil Steil
Baldwin Baldwin Pocan Pocan Pocan Pocan Pocan Pocan
Kind Kind Kind Kind Kind Kind Kind Van Orden
Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore Moore
Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Sensenbrenner Fitzgerald Fitzgerald
Petri Petri Petri Grothman Grothman Grothman Grothman Grothman
Obey Duffy Duffy Duffy Duffy Duffy Tiffany Tiffany
Kagen Ribble Ribble Ribble Gallagher Gallagher Gallagher Gallagher

Look how Blue Wisconsin was in 2008. Reaction to Obamacare saw the state turn majority Red. Reaction to Trump saw Evers get his first term. It's interesting that Sen. Johnson has never barely won an election. Grothman, who saw a dip in support in 2020, won unopposed in 2022. GOP picked up Van Orden, but Democrats got close to flipping Steil's seat. 

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West Virginia

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
      N        
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Manchin Manchin Tomblin Tomblin Justice Justice Justice Justice
Byrd Manchin (S) Manchin Manchin Manchin Manchin Manchin Manchin
Rockefeller Rockefeller Rockefeller Capito Capito Capito Capito Capito
Mollohan McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley McKinley Miller
Capito Capito Capito Mooney Mooney Mooney Mooney Mooney
Rahall Rahall Rahall Jenkins Jenkins Miller Miller  

This state rapidly shifted. Strangely, the major shift wasn't as a reaction to Obamacare in 2010, which is when a lot of shifting occurred. WV made its break to the GOP during Obama's 2nd midterms. This is one of only a handful of states that seems to genuinely like Trump, as shown with the GOP growth during Trump's awful midterm election in 2018. Manchin barely held on. Justice flipped to the GOP to save his job. I don't expect Manchin to win reelection, should he choose to run again in 2024. He would have to flip parties. 

 

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Virginia

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
N N       N    
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Kaine McDonnell (2009) McDonnell McAuliffe (2013) McAuliffe Northam (2017) Northam Youngkin (2021)
Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner Warner
Webb Webb Kaine Kaine Kaine Kaine Kaine Kaine
Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman Wittman
Nye Rigell Rigell Rigell Taylor Luria Luria Kiggans
Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott
Forbes Forbes Forbes Forbes McEachin McEachin McEachin McEachin
Perriello Hurt Hurt Hurt Garrett Riggleman Good Good
Goodlatte Goodlatte Goodlatte Goodlatte Goodlatte Cline Cline Cline
Cantor Cantor Cantor Brat Brat Spanberger Spanberger Spanberger
Moran Moran Moran Beyer Beyer Beyer Beyer Beyer
Boucher Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith Griffith
Wolf Wolf Wolf Comstock Comstock Wexton Wexton Wexton
Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly Connolly

Obama's election, along with urban sprawl from DC, has converted Virginia from a Purple state to a Leans Blue state. It's kind of like the Democrat's Florida, which is now a Lean Red state. Obama's 2008 election saw Dems take a ton of seats. There was a slight movement back in reaction to Obamacare in 2010, but Obama's reelection in 2012, kept Blue Momemntum going. The state was STRONGLY repulsed by Trump, which can been seen with the 2018 Midterm reaction. The 2022 Midterms saw a usually red district return to the GOP, but other than that, this election is status quo. I'm a little curious if Youngkin can win reelection, especially while Northern Virginia continues to grow. He might run for president just to avoid a reelection defeat as governor, if Democrats manage to find a scandal-free Virginian Democrat of some name recognition to run in the election. Sadly, that's a big if. 

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Florida

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
Obama Obama Obama Obama Trump Trump Trump Trump
Crist Scott Scott Scott Scott DeSantis DeSantis DeSantis
Nelson Nelson Nelson Nelson Nelson Scott Scott Scott
Martinez Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio Rubio
Miller Miller Miller Miller Gaetz Gaetz Gaetz Gaetz
Boyd Southerland Southerland Graham Dunn Dunn Dunn Dunn
Brown Brown Yoho Yoho Yoho Yoho Cammack Cammack
Crenshaw Crenshaw Crenshaw Crenshaw Rutherford Rutherford Rutherford Bean
Brown-Waite Nugent Brown Brown Lawson Lawson Lawson Rutherford
Stearns Stearns DeSantis DeSantis DeSantis Waltz Waltz Waltz
Mica Mica Mica Mica Murphy Murphy Murphy Mills
Grayson Webster Posey Posey Posey Posey Posey Posey
Billirakis Billirakis Grayson Grayson Soto Soto Soto Soto
Young Young Webster Webster Demings Demings Demings Frost
Castor Castor Nugent Nugent Webster Webster Webster Webster
Putnam Ross Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis Billirakis
Buchanan Buchanan Young Jolly Crist Crist Crist Luna
Mack Mack Castor Castor Castor Castor Castor Castor
Posey Posey Ross Ross Ross Spano Franklin Lee
Rooney Rooney Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan Buchanan
Meek Wilson Rooney Rooney Rooney Steube Steube Steube
Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen Murphy Murphy Mast Mast Mast Franklin
Wexler Wexler Radel Clawson Clawson Rooney Donalds Donalds
Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Hastings Hastings Hastings Hastings Hastings Cherfilus-McCormick
Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Deutch Deutch Deutch Frankel Frankel Mast
Klein West Frankel Frankel Frankel Deutch Deutch Frankel
Hastings Hastings Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Wasserman Schultz Moskowitz
Kosmas Adams Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson Wilson
Diaz-Balart Rivera Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Diaz-Balart Wasserman Schultz
n/a n/a Garcia Curbelo Curbelo Mucarsei-Powell Gimenez Diaz-Balart
n/a n/a Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen Ros-Lehtinen Shalala Salazar Salazar
              Gimenez

I don't think Florida is a purple state anymore. It's the Republican's version of Virginia. Florida and New York might be the only states that had a Red Wave in the otherwise weak 2022 midterm showing by Republicans. It seems like, because of gerrymandering, Democrats will likely only have a shot of converting 4 of these seats, even if Biden has something like a 55% approval going into reelection. 

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Georgia

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
            W  
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Biden Biden
Perdue Deal Deal Deal Deal Kemp Kemp Kemp
Chambliss Chambliss Chambliss Perdue Perdue Perdue Ossoff Ossoff
Isakson Isakson Isakson Isakson Isakson Isakson/Loeffler Warnock (S) ?
Kingston Kingston Kingston Carter Carter Carter Carter Carter
Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop Bishop
Westmoreland Westmoreland Westmoreland Westmoreland Ferguson Ferguson Ferguson Ferguson
Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson Johnson
Lewis Lewis Lewis Lewis Lewis Lewis Williams Williams
Price Price Price Price Price/Handel McBath McBath McCormick
Linder Woodall Woodall Woodall Woodall Woodall Bourdeaux McBath
Marshall Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott
Deal Graves Collins Collins Collins Collins Clyde Clyde
Norwood Broun Broun Hice Hice Hice Hice Collins
Gingrey Gingrey Gingrey Loudermilk Loudermilk Loudermilk Loudermilk Loudermilk
Barrow Barrow Barrow Allen Allen Allen Allen Allen
Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott Scott
n/a n/a Graves Graves Graves Graves Greene Greene

Warnock vs Walker is still to be decided, but I'll be shocked if Warnock doesn't win. Formerly a strongly Red State. Huge difference if you compare 2016 to 2020. The state either really liked Trump or really disliked Hillary Clinton or both in 2016. By 2020, they just want to get rid of him. Although Abrams's 2nd defeat wasn't as close to victory as her first match with Kemp, she was within range for making Kemp a light red. 

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Illinois

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
    N     N    
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Blagojevich Quinn Quinn Rauner Rauner Pritzker Pritzker Pritzker
Obama/Burris Kirk Kirk Kirk Duckworth Duckworth Duckworth Duckworth
Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin Durbin
Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Jackson
Jackson Jackson Jackson Kelly Jackson Jackson Kelly Kelly
Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Lipinski Newman Ramirez
Gutierrez Gutierrez Gutierrez Gutierrez Gutierrez Garcia Garcia Garcia
Emanuel Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley Quigley
Roskam Roskam Roskam Roskam Roskam Casten Casten Casten
Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis
Bean Walsh Duckworth Duckworth Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi Krishnamoorthi
Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky Schakowsky
Kirk Dold Schneider Dold Schneider Schneider Schneider Schneider
Halvorson Kinzinger Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster Foster
Costello Costello Enyart Bost Bost Bost Bost Bost
Biggert Biggert Davis Davis Davis Davis Davis Budzinski
Foster Holtgren Holtgren Holtgren Holtgren Underwood Underwood Underwood
Johnson Johnson Shimkus Shimkus Shimkus Shimkus Miller Miller
Manzullo Manzullo Kinzinger Kinzinger Kinzinger Kinzinger Kinzinger LaHood
Hare Schilling Bustos Bustos Bustos Bustos Bustos Sorensen
Schock Schock Schock Schock LaHood LaHood LaHood  
Shimkus Shimkus n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a  

This used to be one of the power states, but it's shrinking. It's lost two EVs now since 2008. I think if moderate Republicans ever take their party back, that IL could become much more Red. States losing EVs typically do. Republicans would have to shake off MAGA to have any shot of taking advantage of changing this state. For now, similar to the situation in NY/NYC, Chicago so dominates the state that it will take decades for any real noticeable shift, I think. 

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Connecticut

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Rell Malloy Malloy Malloy Malloy Lamont Lamont Lamont
Dodd Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal Blumenthal
Lieberman Lieberman Murphy Murphy Murphy Murphy Murphy Murphy
Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson Larson
Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney Courtney
DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro DeLauro
Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes Himes
Murphy Murphy Esty Esty Esty Hayes Hayes Hayes

The GOP has been locked out of this state since 2010. Cracks are starting to show in CT and in RI. 

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Delaware

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Markell Markell Markell Markell Carney Carney Carney Carney
Biden/Kaufman Coons Coons Coons Coons Coons Coons Coons
Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper Carper
Castle Carney Carney Carney Rochester Rochester Rochester Rochester

GOP has been locked out since 2010. Despite a somewhat closer race for DE-1, the state is unlikely to shift parties. If you've been to DE and looked at it, it requires the sort of legislation to function that only Democrats offer. Same goes for any state that is heavy in urbanization and limited in open land. A Larry Hogan-type gov is the best the GOP could hope for in this state. 

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Indiana

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
  W            
Obama Obama Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Daniels Daniel Pence Pence Holcomb Holcomb Holcomb Holcomb
Bayh Coats Coats Coats Young Young Young Young
Lugar Lugar Donnelly Donnelly Donnelly Braun Braun Braun
Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Visclosky Mrvan Mrvan
Donnelly Donnelly Walorsky Walorsky Walorsky Walorsky Walorsky Yakym
Souder Stutzman Stutzman Stutzman Banks Banks Banks Banks
Buyer Rokita Rokita Rokita Rokita Baird Baird Baird
Burton Burton Brooks Brooks Brooks Brooks Spartz Spartz
Pence Pence Messer Messer Messer Pence Pence Pence
Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson Carson
Ellsworth Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon Bucshon
Hill Young Young Young Hollingsworth Hollingsworth Hollingsworth Houchin

Reaction to Obamacare killed any balance between the two major parties here, which is odd since Obama campaigned partially on healthcare and won IN in the 2008 election! Obama's reelection, strangely, helped Donnelly gain the seat. By the time of Trump, IN was clearly going the way of OH, which was going the way of WV. Despite devastating losses in Trump's midterms, Indiana gave the GOP Sen. Braun. As you can see, 2022 almost flipped Mrvan's district too. Democrats are almost gone, aside from Carson's Indianapolis district. 

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Iowa

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
      N   N N N
Obama Obama Obama Obama Trump Trump Trump Trump
Culver Branstad Branstad Branstad Branstad Reynolds Reynolds Reynolds
Harken Harken Harken Ernst Ernst Ernst Ernst Ernst
Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley Grassley
Braley Braley Braley Blum Blum Finkenauer Hinson Miller-Meeks
Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Loebsack Miller-Meeks Hinson
Boswell Boswell Latham Young Young Axne Axne Nunn
Latham Latham King King King King Feenstra Feenstra
King King            

Remember when this was a battleground state? While not terribly reactive to Obamacare, the state seemed to be bothered by something after the 2012 election as the state became clearly Red, and it hasn't yet returned. The state was one of the regret-a-Trump states in 2018, but it seemed to fall back in line by 2020. Democrats were wiped for the first time since 1954 in the 2022 Midterms. 

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Kansas

  N       N    
McCain McCain Romney Romney Trump Trump Trump Trump
Sebelius Brownback Brownback Brownback Brownback Kelly Kelly Kelly
Roberts Roberts Roberts Roberts Roberts Roberts Marshall Marshall
Brownback Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran Moran
Moran Huelskamp Huelskamp Huelskamp Marshall Marshall Mann Mann
Jenkins Jenkins Jenkins Jenkins Jenkins Watkins LaTurner LaTurner
Moore Yoder Yoder Yoder Yoder Davids Davids Davids
Tiahrt Pompeo Pompeo Pompeo Pompeo Estes Estes Estes

It's hard to predict what is going on here. Kelly and Davids seem like such outliers. 

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Maryland

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
O'Malley O'Malley O'Malley Hogan Hogan Hogan Hogan Moore
Mikulski Mikulski Mikulski Mikulski Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen
Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin Cardin
Kratovil Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris Harris
Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger Ruppersberger
Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes Sarbanes
Edwards Edwards Edwards Edwards Brown Brown Brown Ivey
Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer Hoyer
Bartlett Bartlett Delaney Delaney Delaney Trone Trone Trone
Cummings Cummings Cummings Cummings Cummings Cummings Mfume Mfume
Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Van Hollen Raskins Raskins Raskins Raskins

Solid blue. If this weren't a midterm and the GOP had the same candidates, this state might have wiped out the GOP. Hogan was a popular governor, but his party was not. Incoming Gov Moore is getting a lot of hype---the "could be president some day" hype. 

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Massachusetts

2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
               
Obama Obama Obama Obama Clinton Clinton Biden Biden
Patrick Patrick Patrick Baker Baker Baker Baker Healey
Kerry Kerry Kerry Markey Markey Markey Markey Markey
Kennedy Brown (S) Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren Warren
Olver Olver Neal Neal Neal Neal Neal Neal
Neal Neal McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern McGovern
McGovern McGovern Tsongas Tsongas Tsongas Trahan Trahan Trahan
Frank Frank Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Kennedy Auchincloss Auchincloss
Tsongas Tsongas Markey Clark Clark Clark Clark Clark
Tierney Tierney Tierney Moulton Moulton Moulton Moulton Moulton
Markey Markey Capuano Capuano Capuano Pressley Pressley Pressley
Capuano Capuano Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch Lynch
Lynch Lynch Keating Keating Keating Keating Keating Keating
Delahunt Keating            

GOP wiped out for the first time since 2012. Like with Hogan in MD, Baker was popular but his party is not. I was hearing recently that Aiyanna Pressley is the frontrunner to replace Markey whenever he should retire. I have a feeling JP Kennedy III might try to make another attempt for that seat should he retire; however, I'm not sure why there is Markey rumors of retirement. He's 4 years younger than Biden. 

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