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What's the Cause for 2022 Midterm Results


vcczar
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What's the Cause for 2022 Midterm Results  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Why did the GOP epically underperformed against an unpopular president during high inflation in a midterm election?

    • Trump's campaigning undermind GOP candidates.
    • Too many election deniers for the GOP
    • GOP had questionable, weak candidates
    • It was a Red Wave but the election was rigged for Democrats
      0
    • Voters failed to see the ethical and moral purpose of supporting MAGA Republicanism
    • This result was expected -- Polls had a conservative bias and pundits went with that.
    • Barack Obama campaigned frequently
    • Joe Biden's big speech on the MAGA threat to Democracy
    • Democratic candidates were inherently superior
    • Democrats had stronger, better messaging than Republicans
    • Inflation helped Democrats
      0
    • Overturning of Roe v Wade helped Democrats
    • The threat to Democracy helped Democrats
    • High Crime helped Democrats
    • Nancy Pelosi's election strategy helped Democrats
    • Voters saw the election as Biden vs Trump and preferred Biden
    • Other (You must list a reason below for this to count)


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For other, I think this was an election where the Dem candidates who overperformed really focused on persuasion. GA sticks out the most to me because Warnock tried to broaden his appeal and Abrams focused more on turnout, and from the results, it's clear a number of Kemp voters either voted for Warnock, voted for the Libertarian, or didn't vote in the Senate race at all. DeWine voters also notably had some crossover support for Ryan or at the very least did not support Vance to the same degree. I was skeptical how much Democratic candidates in these races could separate themselves from Biden to expand their appeal but it looks as though Republican candidates who kept catering to the base did that work for them. 

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I would also say that Republicans did almost no focus on the future in this election. Voters saw no reasonable alternative from the GOP - sure they bashed Dems over inflation, but showed no plan to reduce it beyond "not spending as much as the Democrats". That's just one issue, but it was a common theme, especially in the House and Senate. Governor races I wouldn't put in that category as much. 

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Everything I said plus lack of support to MAGA candidates from GOP leadership. One leader sent $10M to Murkowski against another Republican and almost nothing to Masters. But mostly the rift from Trump propping up shitty primary dickrider candidates against Dems in close states that the GOP establishment doesn’t wanna support.

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I don’t think either party necessarily won in the grand scheme of things.  Republicans underperformed expectations, but they’re still likely to win the House and maybe a 50-50 shot at the Senate.

Overall, I think conditions generally favored actual Republicans, but actual Republicans are hard to find these days.  
 

The Trump MAGA folks weren’t rejected across the board of course, but enough of them were rejected that what should have been a Republican night instead turned into a coin flip.

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59 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

This tweet made me laugh but I also am curious to see other folks' thoughts on who the most exceptionally bad Senate candidate was this year, because while I see the case for Masters, I feel like my answer would be Herschel Walker.

Yea, I don’t see any good argument for anyone outside of Walker or Dr. Oz. It’s scary that Oz was as close as he was before Fetterman’s stroke, as well as the remaining possibility of Senator Herschel Walker. 

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1 hour ago, ShortKing said:

This tweet made me laugh but I also am curious to see other folks' thoughts on who the most exceptionally bad Senate candidate was this year, because while I see the case for Masters, I feel like my answer would be Herschel Walker.

I think the thing for Masters is that he was viewed as vile and unelectable the whole time and nothing changed. Walker kept it close and went to a runoff, so electorally speaking I would say Masters was the worst candidate of the cycle (in the Senate). 

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7 hours ago, ShortKing said:

This tweet made me laugh but I also am curious to see other folks' thoughts on who the most exceptionally bad Senate candidate was this year, because while I see the case for Masters, I feel like my answer would be Herschel Walker.

I know almost nothing about Masters. @DakotaHale likes him for some reason, so maybe he can give a counterargument. I'm with those that thought Walker was the worst. Oz was bad too but there were so many other probably worse. 

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Walker was the worst. Oz wasn’t terrible. He’s a legitimate surgeon, son of immigrants who speaks multiple languages. Fetterman is a racist who can’t talk, parents pay his bills, and endorsed by Weinsteins friends. I feel for him, my uncle had a stroke and lost the ability to talk entirely, but he should in no way whatsoever be qualified for office. Sure, Oz’s TV career was blatant pandering, but it’s not as disqualifying as Fettermans bill of health.

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Masters I liked but he never had a chance of winning. I’ve read his book. He’s a good-looking and brilliant guy. Brilliant businessman and foundation manager. He’s hated by the establishment of both parties, received very little campaign money, and even the MAGA guys weren’t crazy about him and he still made Arizona a competitive race. Kelly was the most overrated candidate in the entire race. Has no redeemable qualities besides being an astronaut. 

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1 hour ago, DakotaHale said:

Masters I liked but he never had a chance of winning. I’ve read his book. He’s a good-looking and brilliant guy. Brilliant businessman and foundation manager. He’s hated by the establishment of both parties, received very little campaign money, and even the MAGA guys weren’t crazy about him and he still made Arizona a competitive race. Kelly was the most overrated candidate in the entire race. Has no redeemable qualities besides being an astronaut. 

It seems like Kelly proved you wrong by running Masters into the floor. He's not overrated if his constituents like him. Plus Masters may not have receieved as much from the NRCC and McConnell, but he did have a lot of money to work with. Masters had pathetic fundraising because he was a bad candidate.

 

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Not to mention it's not a flex to keep Arizona competitive, it's a competitive state that only barely went for Biden in 2020 and should have been a fairly easy pickup. The fact that Masters never had a scandal like Walker did, never had a particularly bad debate moment like Oz's line about abortion being between a woman, her doctor, and local political leaders, and never really had a massive screw-up, and still lost by more than Oz and Walker, who had much rockier campaigns. I didn't keep up too much with Masters or his race, but it really is a weird underperformance that can't be explained by much beyond Masters being unlikable and out of step with the electorate

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2 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

Walker was the worst. Oz wasn’t terrible. He’s a legitimate surgeon, son of immigrants who speaks multiple languages. Fetterman is a racist who can’t talk, parents pay his bills, and endorsed by Weinsteins friends. I feel for him, my uncle had a stroke and lost the ability to talk entirely, but he should in no way whatsoever be qualified for office. Sure, Oz’s TV career was blatant pandering, but it’s not as disqualifying as Fettermans bill of health.

That’s a crazy take on Fetterman.  I’m worried maybe you got hacked by a certain Canadian who shall remain nameless.  ;c)

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Wow seems to be a takeaway from the night that raging white nationalist insane candidates tend not to win. Shocker! Great job WA-03! One step closer to evening up the House. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez only had a 2% chance to win on 538. Joe Kent primaried out pro-impeachment Jaime Herrera-Beutler, who almost certainly would have carried the district. 

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11 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

Kelly was the most overrated candidate in the entire race. Has no redeemable qualities besides being an astronaut.

Naval Aviator, Combat veteran in Gulf War, political activist, and  "being an astronaut" is a pretty freaking big deal considering the level of the work, amount of stress, and scientific and technical knowledge required. 

 

 

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23 minutes ago, 10centjimmy said:

Naval Aviator, Combat veteran in Gulf War, political activist, and  "being an astronaut" is a pretty freaking big deal considering the level of the work, amount of stress, and scientific and technical knowledge required. 

 

 

In my humble opinion, and I say this as a Republican. I'm glad a moderate, pro-gun, pro-border security Democrat won re-election in Arizona. Not only that, but the seat of American heroes: John McCain, and Barry Goldwater. 

I'm pleased that seat is in similar, and safe hands. 

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3 minutes ago, Pringles said:

In my humble opinion, and I say this as a Republican. I'm glad a moderate, pro-gun, pro-border security Democrat won re-election in Arizona. Not only that, but the seat of American heroes: John McCain, and Barry Goldwater. 

I'm pleased that seat is in similar, and safe hands. 

Pro-Gun control, certainly. 

Definitely agree it's better to have people who are committed to bettering the lives of their constituents.

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