vcczar Posted November 13, 2022 Share Posted November 13, 2022 I think Warnock wins the run-off, so let's say Democrats end the midterms 51-49 Senators. They have a tough match in 2024. Look at this: Note: Competitive Senate Races only (i.e. not CA, etc.) AZ (Sinema-D): I think it goes to whomever wins the Pres Election *Possible flip* FL (Scott-R): Goes D only if Dems win in landslide in Pres Election IN (Braun-R): Stays R MI (Stabenow-D): Stays D, even if Trump or DeSantis wins. Could be close though. MN (Klobuchar-D): Same as above MT (Tester-D): D keeps it only if Zinke is the R nominee. I would be shocked if Tester holds on *Likely flip* NV (Rosen-D): I think she likely holds on, but her seat might be determined by who wins the Pres Election *Possible flip* OH (Brown-D): I hate to say this, but I think Dems would have to win the Pres Election in a landslide to save Brown. *Likely flip* PA (Casey-D): I just can't see Casey being beat, regardless who wins the election. TX (Cruz-R): Cruz, because he's so unlikable, can be beat, but you need to find someone stronger than the Beto of 2018. WV (Manchin-D): Manchin loses unless he switches parties *Likely flip* WI (Baldwin-D): I think she holds her seat unless Republicans win Pres electioni in a landslide *Possible flip* Here's how I see the Senate after 2024: Biden wins in landslide (say, 330+ EVs): 49-51 R Biden wins reelection in relatively close match: 48-52 R Biden loses reelection in a relatively close match: 46-54 R Biden loses reelection in a landslide: 45-55 R Conclusion: At this point, I see Democrats holding the Senate in 2024 only if Biden wins in a landslide and Tester's opponent is at least as controversial as Zinke. This would get us at 51-49. The best-case-scenario is that Democrats somehow win all these competitive seats and end up with 54-46 Senate seats. Republicans definitely have a better map. Another conclusion is: Warnock needs to win the run-off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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