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2024 Senate Elections


vcczar
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I think Warnock wins the run-off, so let's say Democrats end the midterms 51-49 Senators. They have a tough match in 2024. Look at this:

Note: Competitive Senate Races only (i.e. not CA, etc.)

  • AZ (Sinema-D): I think it goes to whomever wins the Pres Election *Possible flip*
  • FL (Scott-R): Goes D only if Dems win in landslide in Pres Election
  • IN (Braun-R): Stays R
  • MI (Stabenow-D): Stays D, even if Trump or DeSantis wins. Could be close though.
  • MN (Klobuchar-D): Same as above
  • MT (Tester-D): D keeps it only if Zinke is the R nominee. I would be shocked if Tester holds on *Likely flip*
  • NV (Rosen-D): I think she likely holds on, but her seat might be determined by who wins the Pres Election *Possible flip*
  • OH (Brown-D): I hate to say this, but I think Dems would have to win the Pres Election in a landslide to save Brown. *Likely flip*
  • PA (Casey-D): I just can't see Casey being beat, regardless who wins the election. 
  • TX (Cruz-R): Cruz, because he's so unlikable, can be beat, but you need to find someone stronger than the Beto of 2018. 
  • WV (Manchin-D): Manchin loses unless he switches parties *Likely flip*
  • WI (Baldwin-D): I think she holds her seat unless Republicans win Pres electioni in a landslide *Possible flip*

Here's how I see the Senate after 2024:

  • Biden wins in landslide (say, 330+ EVs): 49-51 R
  • Biden wins reelection in relatively close match: 48-52 R
  • Biden loses reelection in a relatively close match: 46-54 R
  • Biden loses reelection in a landslide: 45-55 R

Conclusion: At this point, I see Democrats holding the Senate in 2024 only if Biden wins in a landslide and Tester's opponent is at least as controversial as Zinke. This would get us at 51-49. The best-case-scenario is that Democrats somehow win all these competitive seats and end up with 54-46 Senate seats. Republicans definitely have a better map. 

Another conclusion is: Warnock needs to win the run-off. 

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8 minutes ago, vcczar said:

 

  • AZ (Sinema-D): I think it goes to whomever wins the Pres Election *Possible flip*

Sinema is such a shit candidate because no one really likes her, like at all. You would just have to hope that the base turns out Presidentially and holds their noses to vote for her. Personally, I saw an idea floated online that I liked, which would be for Biden to appoint Sinema to some cabinet position or some shit so that (assuming Hobbs wins) Dems could appoint a better candidate to the seat.

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13 minutes ago, Rezi said:

Sinema is such a shit candidate because no one really likes her, like at all. You would just have to hope that the base turns out Presidentially and holds their noses to vote for her. Personally, I saw an idea floated online that I liked, which would be for Biden to appoint Sinema to some cabinet position or some shit so that (assuming Hobbs wins) Dems could appoint a better candidate to the seat.

Yeah, I read that too. I hope that happens. Another good reason to do that is that Sinema is an unreliable voter. We know Manchin will be unreliable. With Warnock we won't have to worry about Manchin, but it would be good to have some Sinema insurance. However, Dems have to hope we magically keep the US House for that to matter. 

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Just now, DakotaHale said:

Why do you think Manchin needs to switch parties? Conservative Democrats are a thing and remain popular in the South. Kentucky and WV still have more registered Democrats than Republicans. And he’s still relatively popular I believe. 

They need to be much more popular. Parties have been nationalized in the era of Social Media. He barely won reelection last time. The party label matters now, unless one is independent. That's another option that Manchin has. Gov Justice had to switch parties. I doubt he would have been reelected if he hadn't. 

Rep. Van Drew of NJ is a more curious case. I'm not sure why he flipped. What is kind of interesting is that he was generally a party-line Democratic vote, and then he switched parties and became a generally party-line Republican. Apparently, his personal hypocrisy doesn't bother his district, although I can see an argument that a US Rep should represent their district, and not themself, even if it means they flip-flop on every issue. I think I were a US Rep, I'd probably support or focus on things I'm not particularly interested in since my job is to represent. If anything crosses an ethical or moral line for me, I'd probably vote selfishly on the issue and then resign. 

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