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Does Donald Trump Drop Out Before the Primaries?


vcczar
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Does Donald Trump Drop Out Before the Primaries?   

29 members have voted

  1. 1. Does Donald Trump Drop Out Before the Primaries?

  2. 2. Who is more likely to win the GOP nomination if these are the candidates getting at least 1% in the polls?

    • Trump
    • DeSantis
    • Haley
    • Pence
      0
    • Pompeo
      0
    • Hutchinson
      0
    • Christie
      0
    • Cruz
      0
    • Cheney
  3. 3. Who is more likely to win the general election in 2024

  4. 4. Do you think Trump's legacy will be viewed more favorably or unfavorably in say 10 years?

    • More favorable: Historians and the people will realize that Trump really wasn't as bad as he appeared to be as president or as a person.
    • About the same: There won't be much of a difference between how people feel about Trump in the near future or now.
    • Less favorable: The fallout of Trump's presidency, rhetoric, and investigations will increase his unfavorability.


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One thing the polls are showing is that if the GOP primaries were today, he'd win if there are more than one opponent. Trump is averaging about 44% in polls, regardless if its him vs. DeSantis or him vs. a large field of people. Head-to-head, Trump leads by like 2pts. Against a field, he leads by like 15 pts. This clearly shows that the GOP race, at the moment at least, is Trump vs Not Trump. Splitting the not Trump vote is just going to grant Trump the nomination. GOP should probably rally behind one person prior to the first primary. 

This is pretty much what happened in 2016. The GOP had a ton of candidates. Most of the GOP was opposed to Trump until he got the nomination. The not Trump's divided their vote and allowed Trump to win. Trump got only 44.9% of the vote for the entire primary and this includes votes after everyone dropped out. Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich combine for more than that. 

GOP primary could be something of a repeat if the GOP field is huge and none of the not Trump's doesn't take off. I think the difference is that the not Trump's are more like Trump now than they were in 2016, especially DeSantis who even mimicks Trump's mannerisms. DeSantis is kind of a lackey trying to pretend to be an original, which makes me wonder if he'll actually flame out, despite the attention he gets. Who knows. 

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I don't think that trump would go out of his way to tease up his political comeback and than suddenly giving up on it. If he were to lose the primairy, I belive that it would go in two ways. Number one: Trump would run as an independent. I know that this is practically every democratic strategist's wet dream as this would ensure democratic victory in 2024 and a big rift in the GOP base but we must consider one thing, the erratic behavior of Trump. Trump is known for his erratic behavior with reason to as there has been mutiple cases where he went "power hungry" (First impeachment) and it wouldn't neccssary be a suprise that he might just be petty and run as an independent. The second way is that he decides to concede and let whoever wins run their own campaign aganist Biden. The reason I say this is even if Trump may seem erratic or "stupid", he knows the political landscape. He knows that he has a wide base from disgrunted democrats to literal neo nazis (Trump's recent comments during the Kanye Dinner). Either way, We will have to see whent he time comes. 

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