Jump to content
The Political Lounge

If Trump runs 3rd party


vcczar
 Share

If Trump runs 3rd party   

23 members have voted

  1. 1. If Trump does not get the GOP nomination what do you think is the chance that he runs 3rd party?

    • About 100% likely
    • About 75% likely
    • About 50/50
    • About 25% likely
    • About 0% likely because he doesn't want to help Biden or knows he wouldn't win.
    • About 0% likely because he'll be in prison
      0
  2. 2. If Trump runs 3rd party, which nominee will be hurt the most by Trump draining votes?

    • Biden (D)
    • GOP nominee (R) *Likely DeSantis, Haley, or Tim Scott*
  3. 3. Considering Trump would drain votes, who would win the Popular Vote?

    • Biden
    • GOP nom
      0
    • Trump
      0
  4. 4. Considering Trump would drain votes, which of the following would likely be true? [check all that apply]

    • Biden wins TX
    • Biden wins FL
    • Biden wins OH
    • Biden wins NC
    • GOP wins TX
    • GOP wins FL
    • GOP wins OH
    • GOP wins NC
    • Trump wins TX
      0
    • Trump wins FL
      0
    • Trump wins OH
    • Trump wins NC
      0
  5. 5. If Trump runs 3rd party will he win any states against Biden and the GOP nom?

    • Yes, and more than one.
    • Maybe one, such as WV, which strongly supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
    • No, but he'll get some faithless electors.
    • No.
  6. 6. Would you support a Trump 3rd party run?

    • Yes, because I support Trump
      0
    • Yes, because I support most 3rd party runs over the Dem-GOP duopoloy.
      0
    • Yes, but only because it makes it likely Biden wins in an EV landslide.
    • No, because Trump is going to screw over the GOP and possibly destroy the party.
    • No, because I don't want to take the chance of Trump winning the election.
    • Other that doesn't primarily overlap with one of the above. (mention below)


Recommended Posts

I think the likelihood and impact of a Trump third party run are wildly overrated. It takes time and money and effort to get on the ballot in a number of states, and some states make it fairly difficult to get on the general election ballot, especially if you're not getting started on the process until after you've already lost the GOP nomination. Some states, like Florida, make it somewhat easy to get on the ballot, but even basic requirements like getting a certain number of signatures trips up sloppy campaigns (as seen by half the MI GOP gov candidates this year) and Trump's team has never been known for efficiency or competence. If Trump loses the primary, he might want to run third party but the level of work it entails to be a long shot at best is likely to keep him from waging a serious campaign with considerable impact.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, pilight said:

You literally can't get on the ballot in most states if you run in the primaries

Apparently these sore loser laws have been ignored for Presidential candidates in the past, but given Trump's status, I could see them coming up in a potential indy run from him.
Sore loser laws for presidential candidates, 2016 - Ballotpedia

Quote

Some states bar candidates who sought, but failed, to secure the nomination of a political party from running as independents in the general election. These restrictions are sometimes called sore loser laws. Richard Winger, editor and publisher of Ballot Access News, has argued that, generally speaking, "sore loser laws have been construed not to apply to presidential primaries." In August 2015, Winger compiled a list of precedents supporting this interpretation. He argued that in 43 of the 45 states with sore loser laws on the books, the laws do not seem to apply to presidential candidates. Winger claimed that sore loser laws apply to presidential candidates in only two states: South Dakota and Texas. See the table below for further details.[1][2][3]

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 12/5/2022 at 11:10 AM, ShortKing said:

I think the likelihood and impact of a Trump third party run are wildly overrated. It takes time and money and effort to get on the ballot in a number of states, and some states make it fairly difficult to get on the general election ballot, especially if you're not getting started on the process until after you've already lost the GOP nomination. Some states, like Florida, make it somewhat easy to get on the ballot, but even basic requirements like getting a certain number of signatures trips up sloppy campaigns (as seen by half the MI GOP gov candidates this year) and Trump's team has never been known for efficiency or competence. If Trump loses the primary, he might want to run third party but the level of work it entails to be a long shot at best is likely to keep him from waging a serious campaign with considerable impact.

You make a logical argument here, but I would simply counter that Trump and his followers are not governed by logic. Ha.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Imagine if nobody gets an EV majority, and the Republican house chooses DeSantis, and the Democratic Senate chooses Kamala. Would be a very interesting dynamic. Might also save this country on a bipartisan level. I would support it. 

That would depend on if a Trump 3rd party run impacts the House/Senate elections too. I'd assume whomever got the highest pop vote would probably also get the House. In that sense, I'd bank on Dems getting the House. 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Imagine if nobody gets an EV majority, and the Republican house chooses DeSantis, and the Democratic Senate chooses Kamala. Would be a very interesting dynamic. Might also save this country on a bipartisan level. I would support it. 

I think having a President/VP from opposite parties would cause an assassination.

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

That would depend on if a Trump 3rd party run impacts the House/Senate elections too. I'd assume whomever got the highest pop vote would probably also get the House. In that sense, I'd bank on Dems getting the House. 

Oh, I didn't see that contingent elections are decided by the incoming congress. I assumed it would be in like December or something before they're sworn in. Interesting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, vcczar said:

That would depend on if a Trump 3rd party run impacts the House/Senate elections too. I'd assume whomever got the highest pop vote would probably also get the House. In that sense, I'd bank on Dems getting the House. 

But since it is based on house delegation, a Democratic House wouldn't necessarily give the Dems victory. Right now, I believe the GOP has 26 delegations with North Carolina tied (pending a new map with their new GOP majority on the state supreme court). So even if Arizona and Iowa flipped, Dems would be short of the necessary 26 delegations to win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

 Share

×
×
  • Create New...