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If Trump runs 3rd party

vcczar

By vcczar
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If Trump runs 3rd party   

23 members have voted

  1. 1. If Trump does not get the GOP nomination what do you think is the chance that he runs 3rd party?

    • About 100% likely
      3
    • About 75% likely
      6
    • About 50/50
      6
    • About 25% likely
      6
    • About 0% likely because he doesn't want to help Biden or knows he wouldn't win.
      2
    • About 0% likely because he'll be in prison
      0

  2. 2. If Trump runs 3rd party, which nominee will be hurt the most by Trump draining votes?

    • Biden (D)
      1
    • GOP nominee (R) *Likely DeSantis, Haley, or Tim Scott*
      22

  3. 3. Considering Trump would drain votes, who would win the Popular Vote?

    • Biden
      23
    • GOP nom
      0
    • Trump
      0

  4. 4. Considering Trump would drain votes, which of the following would likely be true? [check all that apply]

    • Biden wins TX
      18
    • Biden wins FL
      6
    • Biden wins OH
      15
    • Biden wins NC
      20
    • GOP wins TX
      4
    • GOP wins FL
      12
    • GOP wins OH
      5
    • GOP wins NC
      2
    • Trump wins TX
      0
    • Trump wins FL
      0
    • Trump wins OH
      2
    • Trump wins NC
      0

  5. 5. If Trump runs 3rd party will he win any states against Biden and the GOP nom?

    • Yes, and more than one.
      5
    • Maybe one, such as WV, which strongly supported Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
      10
    • No, but he'll get some faithless electors.
      4
    • No.
      4

  6. 6. Would you support a Trump 3rd party run?

    • Yes, because I support Trump
      0
    • Yes, because I support most 3rd party runs over the Dem-GOP duopoloy.
      0
    • Yes, but only because it makes it likely Biden wins in an EV landslide.
      9
    • No, because Trump is going to screw over the GOP and possibly destroy the party.
      5
    • No, because I don't want to take the chance of Trump winning the election.
      7
    • Other that doesn't primarily overlap with one of the above. (mention below)
      2

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ShortKing

ShortKing

Posted
Posted

I think the likelihood and impact of a Trump third party run are wildly overrated. It takes time and money and effort to get on the ballot in a number of states, and some states make it fairly difficult to get on the general election ballot, especially if you're not getting started on the process until after you've already lost the GOP nomination. Some states, like Florida, make it somewhat easy to get on the ballot, but even basic requirements like getting a certain number of signatures trips up sloppy campaigns (as seen by half the MI GOP gov candidates this year) and Trump's team has never been known for efficiency or competence. If Trump loses the primary, he might want to run third party but the level of work it entails to be a long shot at best is likely to keep him from waging a serious campaign with considerable impact.

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The Blood

The Blood

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, pilight said:

You literally can't get on the ballot in most states if you run in the primaries

Apparently these sore loser laws have been ignored for Presidential candidates in the past, but given Trump's status, I could see them coming up in a potential indy run from him.
Sore loser laws for presidential candidates, 2016 - Ballotpedia

Quote

Some states bar candidates who sought, but failed, to secure the nomination of a political party from running as independents in the general election. These restrictions are sometimes called sore loser laws. Richard Winger, editor and publisher of Ballot Access News, has argued that, generally speaking, "sore loser laws have been construed not to apply to presidential primaries." In August 2015, Winger compiled a list of precedents supporting this interpretation. He argued that in 43 of the 45 states with sore loser laws on the books, the laws do not seem to apply to presidential candidates. Winger claimed that sore loser laws apply to presidential candidates in only two states: South Dakota and Texas. See the table below for further details.[1][2][3]

 

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MrPotatoTed

MrPotatoTed

Posted
Posted
On 12/5/2022 at 11:10 AM, ShortKing said:

I think the likelihood and impact of a Trump third party run are wildly overrated. It takes time and money and effort to get on the ballot in a number of states, and some states make it fairly difficult to get on the general election ballot, especially if you're not getting started on the process until after you've already lost the GOP nomination. Some states, like Florida, make it somewhat easy to get on the ballot, but even basic requirements like getting a certain number of signatures trips up sloppy campaigns (as seen by half the MI GOP gov candidates this year) and Trump's team has never been known for efficiency or competence. If Trump loses the primary, he might want to run third party but the level of work it entails to be a long shot at best is likely to keep him from waging a serious campaign with considerable impact.

You make a logical argument here, but I would simply counter that Trump and his followers are not governed by logic. Ha.

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vcczar

vcczar

Posted
  • Author
Posted
7 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Imagine if nobody gets an EV majority, and the Republican house chooses DeSantis, and the Democratic Senate chooses Kamala. Would be a very interesting dynamic. Might also save this country on a bipartisan level. I would support it. 

That would depend on if a Trump 3rd party run impacts the House/Senate elections too. I'd assume whomever got the highest pop vote would probably also get the House. In that sense, I'd bank on Dems getting the House. 

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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted
29 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

Imagine if nobody gets an EV majority, and the Republican house chooses DeSantis, and the Democratic Senate chooses Kamala. Would be a very interesting dynamic. Might also save this country on a bipartisan level. I would support it. 

I think having a President/VP from opposite parties would cause an assassination.

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DakotaHale

DakotaHale

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

That would depend on if a Trump 3rd party run impacts the House/Senate elections too. I'd assume whomever got the highest pop vote would probably also get the House. In that sense, I'd bank on Dems getting the House. 

Oh, I didn't see that contingent elections are decided by the incoming congress. I assumed it would be in like December or something before they're sworn in. Interesting.

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Rezi

Rezi

Posted
Posted
37 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

How would the forum feel about a Biden/Zeldin winning ticket?

Long Island man bad. Still too MAGA for me to be comfortable with him, but he is an opportunist and I could see him shifting away from it.

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jvikings1

jvikings1

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, vcczar said:

That would depend on if a Trump 3rd party run impacts the House/Senate elections too. I'd assume whomever got the highest pop vote would probably also get the House. In that sense, I'd bank on Dems getting the House. 

But since it is based on house delegation, a Democratic House wouldn't necessarily give the Dems victory. Right now, I believe the GOP has 26 delegations with North Carolina tied (pending a new map with their new GOP majority on the state supreme court). So even if Arizona and Iowa flipped, Dems would be short of the necessary 26 delegations to win.

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