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All-to-early 2024 Predictions


vcczar
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Early 2024 Predictions  

23 members have voted

  1. 1. Presidential

  2. 2. Control of the US House

  3. 3. AZ

    • Kyrsten Sinema (I) [assumes D dropping out and endorsing]
    • Kari Lake (R)
  4. 4. FL

    • Rick Scott (R)
    • Stephanie Murphy (D)
      0
  5. 5. MI

    • Elissa Slotkin (D)
    • John James (R)
  6. 6. MT

    • Jon Tester (D)
    • Ryan Zinke (R)
  7. 7. NV

    • Jacky Rosen (D)
    • Sam Brown (R)
  8. 8. OH

    • Sherrod Brown (D)
    • Frank LaRose (R)
  9. 9. PA

    • Bob Casey Jr (D)
    • Doug Mastriano (R)
      0
  10. 10. TX

    • Ted Cruz (R)
    • Colin Allred (D)
  11. 11. VA

    • Tim Kaine (D)
    • Glenn Youngkin (R)
  12. 12. WV

    • Joe Manchin (D)
    • Jim Justice (R)
  13. 13. WI

    • Tammy Baldwin (D)
    • Mike Gallagher (R)


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My prediction here is that if Biden wins reelection that someone like Allred will score an upset on the unlikable Ted Cruz. Manchin and Brown are just doomed. I think Zinke barely beats Tester. If Biden wins big, then he saves Tester. I think if Biden loses, then Sinema also loses. If Biden wins in a 400+ EV landslide, Dems win all of these. If Biden loses by 400 EVs, then Dems lose all of these. 

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5 hours ago, vcczar said:

My prediction here is that if Biden wins reelection that someone like Allred will score an upset on the unlikable Ted Cruz. Manchin and Brown are just doomed. I think Zinke barely beats Tester. If Biden wins big, then he saves Tester. I think if Biden loses, then Sinema also loses. If Biden wins in a 400+ EV landslide, Dems win all of these. If Biden loses by 400 EVs, then Dems lose all of these. 

How is Manchin doomed? Per Morning Consult, he is the 8th most popular Senator in America with a 57% approval rating, and he remains popular among Republicans and Independents. Despite being a solid red state since 2000, West Virginia voters have repeatedly crossed the line to vote for conservative Democrats.

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11 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

How is Manchin doomed? Per Morning Consult, he is the 8th most popular Senator in America with a 57% approval rating, and he remains popular among Republicans and Independents. Despite being a solid red state since 2000, West Virginia voters have repeatedly crossed the line to vote for conservative Democrats.

Considering his state, he’d half to have a significant portion of the GOP vote too. That 57% is probably almost entirely Dems and independents. Someone like Mooney and Justice will have the GOP support. Justice will also have some independent support. I think I remember Manchin barely winning re-election last time and the state has only gotten redder. 

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10 hours ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I’ve become convinced that Trump won’t be the nominee in 2024.  
 

of course, I’ve bet against him before and lost.  But that’s my feeling right now.

I was thinking the same, but Trump wins almost every poll overwhelming when it is DeSantis + others facing him. If the not Trumps don’t unify, Trump wins. This was sort of the issue with the 2016 GOP. 

The other issue with DeSantis is that he’s about as unlikable as Trump and is kind of weird in a way that’s off-putting. Trump’s weirdness is somehow part of his persona so it’s accepted by some. The more I read about DeSant the less I’m convinced he wins the primary or can beat Biden in the general. His debate performance against Charlie Crist has got to be really worrying. Trump is a terrible debater too, but Trump’s going to shred him with insults and DeSantis is probably just going to freeze. I’m starting to think DeSantis doesn’t run unless he’s beating Trump regularly in polls that aren’t just head to head. 

If there is a large primary field, I expect DeSantis to drop out after seriously underperforming in the first primary, although he may try to stay in until Florida to see if he can leave on a win. I think the anti-Trump pick is someone not mentioned much, whoever it might be. Trump loses if they rally behind that person after the first two primaries, and if Trump doesn’t look particularly strong in one or both states. 

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16 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I was thinking the same, but Trump wins almost every poll overwhelming when it is DeSantis + others facing him. If the not Trumps don’t unify, Trump wins. This was sort of the issue with the 2016 GOP. 

The other issue with DeSantis is that he’s about as unlikable as Trump and is kind of weird in a way that’s off-putting. Trump’s weirdness is somehow part of his persona so it’s accepted by some. The more I read about DeSant the less I’m convinced he wins the primary or can beat Biden in the general. His debate performance against Charlie Crist has got to be really worrying. Trump is a terrible debater too, but Trump’s going to shred him with insults and DeSantis is probably just going to freeze. I’m starting to think DeSantis doesn’t run unless he’s beating Trump regularly in polls that aren’t just head to head. 

If there is a large primary field, I expect DeSantis to drop out after seriously underperforming in the first primary, although he may try to stay in until Florida to see if he can leave on a win. I think the anti-Trump pick is someone not mentioned much, whoever it might be. Trump loses if they rally behind that person after the first two primaries, and if Trump doesn’t look particularly strong in one or both states. 

Agree with all that, but I expect establishment republicans to rally around DeSantis even though he isn’t one of them, purely as a “Jesus Christ, we can’t survive another four years of Trump” move.

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11 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

How is Manchin doomed? Per Morning Consult, he is the 8th most popular Senator in America with a 57% approval rating, and he remains popular among Republicans and Independents. Despite being a solid red state since 2000, West Virginia voters have repeatedly crossed the line to vote for conservative Democrats.

I don't think this is up to date. 

https://morningconsult.com/2023/01/11/sinema-approval-rating-post-party-switch/

This piece from MC published less than a week ago has Joe Manchin as the second least popular Senator in the country, with 40% approve to 53% disapprove and while a lot can happen from now til election day in 2024, the trend for him has not been kind.

image.png.0b5a4e39463f464cf94085efb1878107.png

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11 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

How is Manchin doomed? Per Morning Consult, he is the 8th most popular Senator in America with a 57% approval rating, and he remains popular among Republicans and Independents. Despite being a solid red state since 2000, West Virginia voters have repeatedly crossed the line to vote for conservative Democrats.

His approval rating is at something like %30-40 (according to multiple polls) because of his vote in favor of IRA among with other things. Also Jim Justice is probably the best candidate (electability wise) GOP could have. His approval rating are  sky-high (%70+) also a former democrat who is well known.  I think Manchin would just retire if he sees Jim Justice taking the nomination.

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I can see Manchin surviving against Mooney MAYBE. But Jim Justice is a top tier Senate candidate for West Virginia. As a Former Democrat he has huge appeal to basically the entire electorate of West Virginia. He has the loyalty of his state and was crucial in its transition when Trump took the state by storm. 

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10 hours ago, ShortKing said:

I don't think this is up to date. 

https://morningconsult.com/2023/01/11/sinema-approval-rating-post-party-switch/

This piece from MC published less than a week ago has Joe Manchin as the second least popular Senator in the country, with 40% approve to 53% disapprove and while a lot can happen from now til election day in 2024, the trend for him has not been kind.

image.png.0b5a4e39463f464cf94085efb1878107.png

He doesn’t have to convince a country though. He only has to convince the majority of people voting for senator in his state.

 

EDIT: Having now actually read the article, I see those are WV numbers, not USA numbers. Whoops!

Edited by MrPotatoTed
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12 hours ago, ShortKing said:

I don't think this is up to date. 

https://morningconsult.com/2023/01/11/sinema-approval-rating-post-party-switch/

This piece from MC published less than a week ago has Joe Manchin as the second least popular Senator in the country, with 40% approve to 53% disapprove and while a lot can happen from now til election day in 2024, the trend for him has not been kind.

image.png.0b5a4e39463f464cf94085efb1878107.png

The IRA claims another victim. 😔

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14 hours ago, ShortKing said:

I don't think this is up to date. 

https://morningconsult.com/2023/01/11/sinema-approval-rating-post-party-switch/

This piece from MC published less than a week ago has Joe Manchin as the second least popular Senator in the country, with 40% approve to 53% disapprove and while a lot can happen from now til election day in 2024, the trend for him has not been kind.

image.png.0b5a4e39463f464cf94085efb1878107.png

Thanks, I appear to have been looking at old data. I was wrong

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On 1/19/2023 at 3:29 PM, DakotaHale said:

Puke

That's a really unorthodox way of spelling "based" but I respect it nonetheless. Always happy to see another Jags fan out in the wild 😉 

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