Russia-Ukraine What is More Likely to Happen First?

[vcczar]

New poll

[ShortKing]

I feel fairly confident that Russia will not win this war, I am hopeful that Ukraine reclaims their stolen territory as a result. 

[lm1145]

Donald Trump wins 2024. Makes Ukraine agree to not join NATO and cede territory to Russia to end the war. He does so by threatening to withhold any more financial or military assistance. Just my thoughts and probably the only way it can end at this point in time.

[Willthescout7]

I'm growing more convinced that it ends badly for everyone. Russia doesn't win, Putin gets angry, and the nuke flies. Realistically, and this might seem extreme, but I've grown to believe that the next 5 years will see the end of Western Civilization as we know it, either because we're all dead, or World War III has completely shattered us.

[Hestia]

22 minutes ago, Willthescout7 said:

I'm growing more convinced that it ends badly for everyone. Russia doesn't win, Putin gets angry, and the nuke flies. Realistically, and this might seem extreme, but I've grown to believe that the next 5 years will see the end of Western Civilization as we know it, either because we're all dead, or World War III has completely shattered us.

You're right that is extreme and unrealistic. Every 'red line' the Kremlin has set forth for the West has been shattered with no additional 'escalation'. Putin's even stopped waving around the nuclear button as a threat because we called his bluff the last time he did it. He 'annexed' several southern and eastern regions of Ukraine and promised that he would use nuclear weapons if 'Russia's territorial integrity was challenged'. Well, Kherson fell since then and I don't see a Ukrainian city sitting in a pile of ash. An entire country full of good people should not be forced to back down from defending themselves just because people are too weak and susceptible to Putin's bluffing. 

 

2 hours ago, lm1145 said:

Donald Trump wins 2024. Makes Ukraine agree to not join NATO and cede territory to Russia to end the war. He does so by threatening to withhold any more financial or military assistance. Just my thoughts and probably the only way it can end at this point in time.

Your premise is flawed on the basis that Trump can 1) win the GOP primary and 2) win a general election. But beyond that, Ukraine has dozens of supporters that aren't Washington and have incredible capabilities of their own. No one can 'make' Ukraine agree to any cession of territory, particularly while they are winning, as they are now. 

[Willthescout7]

47 minutes ago, Hestia said:

You're right that is extreme and unrealistic. Every 'red line' the Kremlin has set forth for the West has been shattered with no additional 'escalation'. Putin's even stopped waving around the nuclear button as a threat because we called his bluff the last time he did it. He 'annexed' several southern and eastern regions of Ukraine and promised that he would use nuclear weapons if 'Russia's territorial integrity was challenged'. Well, Kherson fell since then and I don't see a Ukrainian city sitting in a pile of ash. An entire country full of good people should not be forced to back down from defending themselves just because people are too weak and susceptible to Putin's bluffing. 

 

Not disagreeing with you. I'm just in a career field that deals with the ramifications of this war on a daily basis. I had a 5 hour meeting today talking about this. As a result, my outlook is much darker simply because of my daily environment. 

I still don't see this ending well for anyone. Even if nukes aren't dropped, due to the massive amounts of destruction, the incredible number of refugees, the financial cost of the war, Zelensky assuming more and more power, plus a remaining fear of an isolated and wounded Russia. All of this is why I'm pessimistic.

[lm1145]

1 hour ago, Hestia said:

 

 

Your premise is flawed on the basis that Trump can 1) win the GOP primary and 2) win a general election. But beyond that, Ukraine has dozens of supporters that aren't Washington and have incredible capabilities of their own. No one can 'make' Ukraine agree to any cession of territory, particularly while they are winning, as they are now. 

Is Ukraine winning? I'm not sure if they are or are not. Western media claims they're winning but they could have a vested interested in making those claims to the tune of $100billion. 

Trump may not be the nominee, but I see there being a very good chance he will be, especially if there is a large field in the GOP primaries and several of them hold out and stay in for a while. And I believe a potato can and should beat Joe Biden right now in a general election.

[Hestia]

20 minutes ago, Willthescout7 said:

Not disagreeing with you. I'm just in a career field that deals with the ramifications of this war on a daily basis. I had a 5 hour meeting today talking about this. As a result, my outlook is much darker simply because of my daily environment. 

I still don't see this ending well for anyone. Even if nukes aren't dropped, due to the massive amounts of destruction, the incredible number of refugees, the financial cost of the war, Zelensky assuming more and more power, plus a remaining fear of an isolated and wounded Russia. All of this is why I'm pessimistic.

I have a friend who's from Ukraine who's in the UK right now. None of what you say is rationale for why she has to be away from her home city right now because it's being bombarded. I'm leaning towards the fact that you are in a career field that talks about it so much that you're missing some of the more basic things that are happening right now. Russia's offensive operations are failing. Ukraine's counteroffensives are succeeding. Ukrainians are being killed and tortured in their homes. Why are we afraid of a phantom that has blinked at every step of the way? That's losing? I can tell you that while it may not be what they wanted, every Ukrainian who gets liberated is much happier in Ukrainian control than they are in Russian control. What you imply and others propose - some sort of peace settlement that forces these people to remain behind some line drawn arbitrarily over Ukrainian territory - will condemn hundreds of thousands to lives of persecution, torture, and death. An America that condemns people to that is not an America I recognize. 

I understand being concerned, things aren't perfect anywhere. But let's remember who caused those things. Russia caused that devastation. Russia caused those refugees. Russia caused the financial destruction of the war. They brought about their own defeat. We can beat around what Zelensky has done or has not done, but in the end he has promised to step aside when the war is concluded. Ukraine has a thriving civil society with many newspapers that continue to expose corruption even while the war continues - forcing change even in the midst of war. No country is perfect, but they are the ones who have been wronged here. These are peoples' actual lives we are talking about. Their fundamental rights. If Ukraine wants to keep fighting, that's their prerogative. As a freedom-loving, democracy-cherishing American, I am wholeheartedly behind them. 

[Hestia]

1 minute ago, lm1145 said:

Is Ukraine winning? I'm not sure if they are or are not. Western media claims they're winning but they could have a vested interested in making those claims to the tune of $100billion. 

Trump may not be the nominee, but I see there being a very good chance he will be, especially if there is a large field in the GOP primaries and several of them hold out and stay in for a while. And I believe a potato can and should beat Joe Biden right now in a general election.

Look up recent Russian offensives around Vuhledar and Kremmina (within the last several days). Hundreds of Russian casualties, dozens of Russian vehicles destroyed - for not one inch of territory. When German tanks arrive in the spring, everything changes. 

As far as your opinions on the 2024 election, it's simply that - an opinion. No basis of fact in any of your statements. 

[lm1145]

46 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Look up recent Russian offensives around Vuhledar and Kremmina (within the last several days). Hundreds of Russian casualties, dozens of Russian vehicles destroyed - for not one inch of territory. When German tanks arrive in the spring, everything changes. 

As far as your opinions on the 2024 election, it's simply that - an opinion. No basis of fact in any of your statements. 

I guess we'll see.

[lm1145]

1 hour ago, Hestia said:

If Ukraine wants to keep fighting, that's their prerogative. As a freedom-loving, democracy-cherishing American, I am wholeheartedly behind them. 

You do know Zelensky has outlawed and arrested political parties and opponents. Outlawed churches. He's not exactly a pro-democracy, pro-freedom guy. Ukraine is corrupt. We all know Putin isn't a good guy. There's no winners here except the military industrial complex.

[Hestia]

3 minutes ago, lm1145 said:

You do know Zelensky has outlawed and arrested political parties and opponents. Outlawed churches. He's not exactly a pro-democracy, pro-freedom guy. Ukraine is corrupt. We all know Putin isn't a good guy. There's no winners here except the military industrial complex.

Outlawed and arrested political parties who have expressly stood with Russia - who is invading his country. There are still numerous opposition parties still working freely. The major political opponent that I know was arrested was a Russian plant who hoped to be installed as President of Ukraine if Russia took the country over The church that was outlawed was part of the Russian Orthodox church who had numerous officials get busted for being spies. The Ukrainian Orthodox Church (associated with the Constantinople Patriarchate) still freely practices. You can freely disagree with those decisions, but there's more to them than just "oh that's bad". ( https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/world/europe/orthodox-church-ukraine-russia.html). It's a tough issue to work with, especially when many of the people in that church are putting your soldiers and peoples' lives on the line.

But regardless of your opinions of Zelensky or those decisions, the people of Ukraine are pro-democracy and pro-freedom. They are fighting for their democracy to remain standing. Russia is not. 

Quote

Andriy Pavlenko, an Orthodox church abbot in eastern Ukraine, seemed to be on a selfless spiritual mission. When war came, he remained with his flock and even visited a hospital to pray with wounded soldiers.

But in fact, according to court records, Mr. Pavlenko was working actively to kill Ukrainian soldiers and Ukrainian activists, including a priest from a rival Orthodox church in his city, Sievierodonetsk.

“In the north, there are about 500 of them, with a mortar platoon, five armored personnel carriers and three tanks,” Mr. Pavlenko wrote to a Russian officer in March, as the Russian Army was hammering Sievierodonetsk and areas around it with artillery.

His was hardly an isolated case. In the past month, the authorities have arrested or publicly identified as suspects more than 30 clergymen and nuns of the Ukrainian arm of the Russian Orthodox Church.

To the Ukrainian security services, the Russian-aligned church, one of the country’s two major Orthodox churches, poses a uniquely subversive threat — a widely trusted institution that is not only an incubator of pro-Russia sentiment but is also infiltrated by priests, monks and nuns who have aided Russia in the war.

 

[Willthescout7]

1 hour ago, Hestia said:

I have a friend who's from Ukraine who's in the UK right now. None of what you say is rationale for why she has to be away from her home city right now because it's being bombarded. I'm leaning towards the fact that you are in a career field that talks about it so much that you're missing some of the more basic things that are happening right now. Russia's offensive operations are failing. Ukraine's counteroffensives are succeeding. Ukrainians are being killed and tortured in their homes. Why are we afraid of a phantom that has blinked at every step of the way? That's losing? I can tell you that while it may not be what they wanted, every Ukrainian who gets liberated is much happier in Ukrainian control than they are in Russian control. What you imply and others propose - some sort of peace settlement that forces these people to remain behind some line drawn arbitrarily over Ukrainian territory - will condemn hundreds of thousands to lives of persecution, torture, and death. An America that condemns people to that is not an America I recognize. 

I understand being concerned, things aren't perfect anywhere. But let's remember who caused those things. Russia caused that devastation. Russia caused those refugees. Russia caused the financial destruction of the war. They brought about their own defeat. We can beat around what Zelensky has done or has not done, but in the end he has promised to step aside when the war is concluded. Ukraine has a thriving civil society with many newspapers that continue to expose corruption even while the war continues - forcing change even in the midst of war. No country is perfect, but they are the ones who have been wronged here. These are peoples' actual lives we are talking about. Their fundamental rights. If Ukraine wants to keep fighting, that's their prerogative. As a freedom-loving, democracy-cherishing American, I am wholeheartedly behind them. 

I'm not implying that I support a peace treaty that hurts Ukraine or gives Russia territory. I'm also not blaming Ukraine or supporting Russia in any way. You're putting words in my mouth. I'm not saying they should stop fighting. I support Ukraine.

That doesn't mean I'm not allowed to be concerned about refugees. Or Zelensky. Or the amount of destruction. War is still war no matter who is fighting, with very real, awful consequences. 

I still have a pessimistic outlook on this. I still think it ends badly. Maybe not short term, but longterm.

I'm glad you feel strongly about this, but I'm going to drop the subject now. I've said my piece. I hope I'm wrong and you're right and I don't need to be pessimistic. 

[Pringles]

31 minutes ago, lm1145 said:

You do know Zelensky has outlawed and arrested political parties and opponents. Outlawed churches. He's not exactly a pro-democracy, pro-freedom guy. Ukraine is corrupt. We all know Putin isn't a good guy. There's no winners here except the military industrial complex.

Any "Church" that supports an invader inflicting murder on innocent civilians, rape, pillaging, and especially Churches that are blessing Russian soldiers for fighting "nazis" in Ukraine, and promising reward in Heaven for it deserves to be banned and treated as traitors, and especially blasphemers.  

Any political party or opponent aiding this enemy deserves to be outlawed. Such is the unfortunate way of war perhaps. But it will and must be waged by any means necessary in such a circumstance, and I'm on the side of those who stand for peace and freedom. Not raping and killing innocent civilians like barbarians. Multiple supposed controversial actions by Zelensky will not sway me unless he starts treating the Russians as they have treated his people AND worse. He is a leader waging war by all means necessary without devolving into the tragic, and complete evil levels of savagery that the Russian's have.  

It's ok to say war is bad. But I won't try to create this sense of "there are no good guys," to bash the military industrial complex when there clearly is. Ukraine as a whole is flawed as any people, or country surely, but they are the righteous cause in this battle. And I hope one day they achieve any semblance of victory against the Russian menace. 

[The Blood]

1 hour ago, lm1145 said:

You do know Zelensky has outlawed and arrested political parties and opponents. Outlawed churches. He's not exactly a pro-democracy, pro-freedom guy. Ukraine is corrupt. We all know Putin isn't a good guy. There's no winners here except the military industrial complex.

[DakotaHale]

18 minutes ago, The Blood said:

Sent this to my buddy who works at Boeing

[Edouard]

I recently listened to a diplomat (from my country) saying that diplomacy was real politic and that Ukraine should renounce to its russian speaking territories. Because to quote his words "in order to have peace you also have to get a diner with the devil".

I wondered how someone who certainly is intelligent couldn't realize a single minute that he had exactly the same speech than the mainstream western political class of the mid 30s when someone else started annexing a first territory through referendums then some years later started a war in the name to protect his national minorities living outside of his country but at the border of it and trying to annex it to his own.

The process was exactly the same, the difference is the absence of the dissolution of the international order like it had happened the first time this happened to europe. But still this diplomat wants a Munich agreement. And then I realized that several of the factors of 1939 were still here. Basically yes, there is an expansionnist country which is the agressor but too many people are pacifists both in the political class and the population.

It is simply impossible to give lands to Russia because it means it is the end of the respect of borders. The difference between the 30s and now is that a lot of heads of states consider the international order as important and human rights as something to protect, but the world escalation is incredibly similar for what concerns the diplomatical scene.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Edouard

[Pringles]

8 hours ago, Edouard said:

I recently listened to a diplomat (from my country) saying that diplomacy was real politic and that Ukraine should renounce to its russian speaking territories. Because to quote his words "in order to have peace you also have to get a diner with the devil".

I wondered how someone who certainly is intelligent couldn't realize a single minute that he had exactly the same speech than the mainstream western political class of the mid 30s when someone else started annexing a first territory through referendums then some years later started a war in the name to protect his national minorities living outside of his country but at the border of it and trying to annex it to his own.

The process was exactly the same, the difference is the absence of the dissolution of the international order like it had happened the first time this happened to europe. But still this diplomat wants a Munich agreement. And then I realized that several of the factors of 1939 were still here. Basically yes, there is an expansionnist country which is the agressor but too many people are pacifists both in the political class and the population.

It is simply impossible to give lands to Russia because it means it is the end of the respect of borders. The difference between the 30s and now is that a lot of heads of states consider the international order as important and human rights as something to protect, but the world escalation is incredibly similar for what concerns the diplomatical scene.

This reminds me of what Henry Kissinger was saying a while back. Essentially the same thing. I have a lot of respect for his strategies and intellect in other matters but not this one lol. I completely agree with you. 

[ShortKing]

27 minutes ago, Pringles said:

This reminds me of what Henry Kissinger was saying a while back. Essentially the same thing. I have a lot of respect for his strategies and intellect in other matters but not this one lol. I completely agree with you. 

Lately Kissinger has reversed course on this issue so that was good to see. 

[Pringles]

1 hour ago, ShortKing said:

Lately Kissinger has reversed course on this issue so that was good to see. 

Good to hear!

[Largo833]

It's really hard to predict what's going to happen, but I feel like the most likely outcome is Putin being deposed.  Unless things drastically turn around for Russia and they're able to actually get the upper hand, I don't see how this war ends while he's still in charge- after starting a war that has resulted in sanctions that hurt Russia's economy, gotten tens of thousands of Russian troops killed, and globally embarrassed Russia's military capability, Putin has to realize that if he ends the war with nothing to show for it, he's a dead man (politically for sure, probably literally).  Conversely, Ukraine doing so well means they have no reason to make concessions to Putin or let Russia keep Crimea, so I don't see how there can be any peace agreement for as long as Ukraine has the military advantage and Putin is leading Russia.

[DakotaHale]