Nikki Haley to announce run for president Feb 15

[vcczar]

New poll

[Rezi]

I give her ~5% in Iowa and New Hampshire and 10-15% in South Carolina before dropping out.

Edited February 1, 2023 by Rezi

[vcczar]

1 minute ago, Rezi said:

I give her between ~5% in Iowa and New Hampshire and 10-15% in South Carolina before dropping out.

Yeah, overall I see all the non-Trump politicians splitting each other's votes allowing Trump to win the early states. 

I see Trump 43%, DeSantis 40%, Haley 10%, Pompeo 5%, Bolton 1%, Hutchinson 1% for Iowa. 

I see New Hampshire as Trump 40%, DeSantis 38%, Haley 22%.

I see South Carolina as Trump 38%, Haley 28%, Desantis 24%. 

I see Nevada as Trump 57% to DeSantis 43% as Trump gains momentum for winning 3 states. Also, I think DeSantis is a sitting duck for Trump's shenanigans at the debate. DeSantis is not only a terrible debater but he gets kind of stunned sometimes. Trump is a terrible debater in the traditional sense of debate, but he's effective in the 21st century version, which is more entertainment based. I don't think DeSantis reacts well to Trump's insults and false accusations. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if DeSantis collapses in the polls before Iowa. I think someone like Tim Scott is probably the best anti-Trump candidate if he runs. 

[MrPotatoTed]

I expect faster consolidation this time. Everybody knows Trump won the nomination because there were too many candidates splitting the vote for too long.  Several current/potential 2024 candidates have acknowledged that recently.

So I expect the candidates to be “Trump 0.5” (actual Donald Trump, who is a shell of who he used to be now), “Trump 2.0” (DeSantis), and “Not Donald Trump.”

Not Donald Trump has to be a more traditional Republican candidate with none of the Trump stink on them. That’s not Haley and it’s not Pence. I don’t know who it is yet, but if Trump and DeSantis are splitting the Trump vote, there’s a real chance for the Not Donald Trump candidate to win the nomination — if a qualified, not insane person emerges as that candidate.

[vcczar]

14 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I expect faster consolidation this time. Everybody knows Trump won the nomination because there were too many candidates splitting the vote for too long.  Several current/potential 2024 candidates have acknowledged that recently.

So I expect the candidates to be “Trump 0.5” (actual Donald Trump, who is a shell of who he used to be now), “Trump 2.0” (DeSantis), and “Not Donald Trump.”

Not Donald Trump has to be a more traditional Republican candidate with none of the Trump stink on them. That’s not Haley and it’s not Pence. I don’t know who it is yet, but if Trump and DeSantis are splitting the Trump vote, there’s a real chance for the Not Donald Trump candidate to win the nomination — if a qualified, not insane person emerges as that candidate.

If they're smart they will consolidate. I don't know how likely that is. Apparently, DeSantis is unlikable isn't one for commaraderie, etc--basically has some of the same cons Jimmy Carter had in being a Washington outsider who is incompatible for working and hanging out with Washington insiders. I think this might hurt him in getting much support. But, as stated, I could see him completely collapsing before the first primary. 

I think this leaves, from my list, possibly Haley, who I think has a better shot at getting people consolidating around her. I also think she, having been in the Trump administration as UN Amb, could serve something as a bridge to some of his less loyal supporters. No one else from my list above could be the not Trump candidate. Note: I use only those politicians that have declared intent to run (Bolton and Haley) and those expressing interest (DeSantis, Pompeo, and Hutchinson). I wrote an analyst yesterday who predicted Haley jumping in the race, and the reasons why, before she jumped in. For now, he says the only one that seems on the verge of declaring out of those declaring interest is Pompeo, although he doesn't think he'll get much interest. 

[Hestia]

I also agree on faster consolidation, as well as that the field won't be huge to begin with. I felt like with the 2020 Democrats that we were beginning an era that everyone who was floating a presidential campaign would embark on it because at least it would improve their resume and their name recognition. Now, I don't think that's the case with the GOP this year. I could see 4-5 'major' names by the time we hit Iowa. Trump, DeSantis, Haley, maybe one more like Pompeo or Hutchinson. That's the field, minus people with 1 or 2% of the vote. 

[jnewt]

5 hours ago, vcczar said:

If they're smart they will consolidate.

This is a colossal "if" though. I fully expect to see it come down to Trump and DeSantis solely because the rest are all unwilling to drop out and consolidate behind one of themselves, just like in 2016.

[NCblue1]

DeSantis will have plenty of money, but I've heard he is a poor retail politician.  That matters a lot in IA and NH.  Phil Graham and John Connally had large war chests but didn't win anything.  At this point DeSantis's seen as the candidate who can run both to the right of Trump on vaccines and anti-Disney bravado but can also consolidate establishment support as the not Trump candidate and hold Fox News, but this balancing act will be tricky to maintain in debates, and he didn't seem very nimble in the FL gubernatorial debate.  If DeSantis and Trump both stumble, perhaps Nikki Haley can channel a Maggie Thatcher image.  I could see her beating Biden, but if Trump runs 3rd party -and he may just to try to stay out of jail and continue fund raising - then Biden wins.

[ConservativeElector2]

Former Cranston, RI mayor Steve Laffey has announced his campaign. I am pretty sure this will change the entire race lol

[Willthescout7]

I wanted Haley in 2020 but obviously that wasn't possible. Sadly, I don't see her winning unless something drastic happens. I think her moment has passed. 

[vcczar]

3 minutes ago, Willthescout7 said:

I wanted Haley in 2020 but obviously that wasn't possible. Sadly, I don't see her winning unless something drastic happens. I think her moment has passed. 

I agree. Generally every politician's moment is when they first get a lot of attention:

I remember in 2012, both Christie and Jindal were getting a ton of attention. Neither ran. In 2016, they ran, but had no support. For Governor's and former Gov's, you really have to strike while the iron is hot because you end up being out of the public eye. DeSantis has to run in 2024, if he is at all. So much of success is dependent on name recognition. 

[Cal]

Haley has no chance imo. As much as we try to draw a distinction between a “traditional” and a “Trump” candidate, I don’t it’s really possible. 

Traditional voters, the same ones who voted for Rubio, or Cruz, or even Bush in 2016 don’t want that kind of candidate anymore. A “traditional” candidate is someone more like DeSantis nowadays. The establishment of 10-15 years ago is long dead: see Speaker Ryan and Speaker McCarthy, two who were considered very conservative or even on the fringe of the party before the establishment moved to catch up with them over time. 

I think the only semblance of a traditional candidate left that can compete with Trump and DeSantis is Pence. And he’s more than a stones throw away from the traditional GOP imo.

[DakotaHale]

2 hours ago, Cal said:

Haley has no chance imo. As much as we try to draw a distinction between a “traditional” and a “Trump” candidate, I don’t it’s really possible. 

Traditional voters, the same ones who voted for Rubio, or Cruz, or even Bush in 2016 don’t want that kind of candidate anymore. A “traditional” candidate is someone more like DeSantis nowadays. The establishment of 10-15 years ago is long dead: see Speaker Ryan and Speaker McCarthy, two who were considered very conservative or even on the fringe of the party before the establishment moved to catch up with them over time. 

I think the only semblance of a traditional candidate left that can compete with Trump and DeSantis is Pence. And he’s more than a stones throw away from the traditional GOP imo.

I think she's running for VP imo

[MrPotatoTed]

I enjoyed this write up in NYT, with various "experts" rating Haley's chances.  Most gave her a 2 out of 10 on candidate strength.  One gave her a 1, the highest she got was a 7.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/15/opinion/nikki-haley-president.html

Personally, I remember thinking Nikki Haley could be a Republican I could vote for as President, back when she was tearing down Confederate statues in her state.  

But then she hitched her post to Trump, like 99.99% of the rest of the party did.  That's a stink she'll never be able to wash off, and therefore she's as dead to me as Trump is.

Edited February 16, 2023 by MrPotatoTed