Alternative history : Britain 2010

[Edouard]

I am fascinated by several historical scenarios and alternate histories so i tried to imagine what would have happened if the United Kingdom general election of 2010 went differently than planned, according to the most alternative credible scenario namely a minority Conservative government.

Background of 2010 : 2010 election in UK is marqued by several things

A severe bank crisis.

An important deficit like in most occidental countries.

A high unemployment caused by the crisis.

A labour government tired by 13 years of government

A Labour that hoped to get at least 2 more years to initiate the recovery

A Conservative party that wished to come back to power to restart the economy

A Libdem party that hoped to get its alternative vote in order to come back to government.

 

So let us imagine what would happen :

Cameron forms a minority government with DUP backing 306 seats + 8 = 314 seats

257 labour with 57 Libdems and 6 SNP and one alliance form the opposition = 321 seats the 3 Plaid Cymru can also be considered in it

Quickly enough the new government is faced with an actual center-left majority in the commons. Instead of passing a lot of fiscal measures by autumn 2010, David Cameron tries instead to pass some tax cuts in the first semester of his minority government

Labour and Libdem keep talking about the potentiality to form a government, pressions among the Libdem party are high between orange books and social democrats.

By October David Cameron dissolves parliament for an election sent for November 2010. The financial market and experts like Moody have downgraded the notation of the UK because of its political struggles and incapacities to reduce the deficit.

This autumn election is uncertain, Cameron tries to call the national interest to win a short majority, Libdems have not experienced the hit of the historical coalition but faction fightings are important inside the party with people like Charles Kennedy being to the left and others like Ashdown more to the right. Libdems have not adopted an always clear line about budget votes but hasn't exposed itself on being against its fundamental pledges like abolishing tuition fees so they are down to 17% in polls instead of 10%.

Labour has got some switches from Libdems like Conservatives.

I imagine the starting of this election with this kind of polls :

Conservatives 35%

Labour 30%

Libdem 17%

SNP 2,5% - 3%

UKIP 6%

It's unknown if the election would change something, but Libdems would risk to lose some seats while it's unclear if Ed Miliband would be the labour leader at this time. It's also unsure if british voters would hand Cameron a majority while his goal clearly is to pass austerity measures.

 

This projections explains why the coalition, despite the ultimate sacrifice of the Libdems prevented a terrible unstability.