My All-Too-Early 2024 Prediction.

[vcczar]

1. Joe Biden easily wins the Democratic Primary. In fact, no debates will be held for Democrats in the primary. 

2. Trump, Tim Scott, Haley, DeSantis, Pence, and Pompeo will be in the first GOP debate. 

3. DeSantis's popularity will plummet, mainly due to rhetoric and policies. Basically, he starts veering so far right that he's losing anti-Trump voters, while not winning over enough Trump voters to replace the losses. 

4. Haley, Pence, and Pompeo drop out before the first primary and rally behind Tim Scott, who becomes the leading anti-Trump candidate. 

5. DeSantis barely wins IA against both Trump and Scott. Trump wins NH. Scott wins SC. 

6. DeSantis loses FL to Trump, but he would have won had Scott not been in the race. DeSantis shocks the media and the GOP by endorsing Trump over Scott. 

7. Trump and Scott are polling about easily in the remaining states as Trump gets in trouble for a consistent slew of statements, most insults at the likable Tim Scott, such as calling him a "fake black." 

8. Nevertheless, Trump still secures enough delegates to win the nomination, and Scott very reluctantly endorses Trump, despite the media believing he would refuse to. Trump's short list for VP includes Haley and DeSantis, but he chooses Sarah Huckabee Sanders. 

9. Biden is noticeably frailer during the general election. He gives speeches in major cities, but doesn't do much campaigning. Kamala Harris, who isn't popular, campaigns only in CA and states with large black populations. Biden only campaigns with her in these states. Fortunately, surrogates such as Barack Obama really step it up, with Obama campaigning almost as if he were running for president. Michelle Obama is in the mix as well. 

10. Biden approval hovers around 44-46% during the general, but his favorables are at least 4% higher than Trump's, who has his non-consecutive reelection campaign consistently interrupted with court appearances. 

11. Predictably, Trump is the GOP candidate thought to be strongest in the primaries and weakest in the general. While people are not exactly approving of Biden, when asked if they'd rather continue 4 more years with Biden or return to Trump, the voters are clear: Joe Biden/Kamala Harris defeats Donald Trump/Sarah Huckabee Sanders. The map ends up being identical to the 2020 map, although Biden's PV margin is smaller this time around. Third Parties also double their %, but it is still far less than 2016 3rd party #s. 

12. Trump calls the election rigged and suggests his followers should storm the capital again. 

 

[DakotaHale]

The likely 2024 election would be fun and entertaining as an alternate history scenario. Too bad it’s real life. 

[jnewt]

1 hour ago, DakotaHale said:

The likely 2024 election would be fun and entertaining as an alternate history scenario. Too bad it’s real life. 

Yea, I feel bad for our country, but this is tremendous content

[MrPotatoTed]

I don't think Tim Scott has any chance at being the anti-Trump candidate.  I get why it sounds good on paper, but in reality, he has zero charisma.  I expect he'll end up being about as relevant as Nikki Haley in 2024, which is to say "not at all."

Pence is the anti-Trump candidate.  And I get why that's weird, given that he was literally on the Trump ticket.  And also has no charisma.  But watching the 2016 and 2020 debates, Pence is absolutely amazing at making people forget that Donald Trump exists.  

I agree with you that DeSantis fizzes out.  I see it being a race between Trump, Pence, and DeSantis with DeSantis finishing third.  Trump winning the nomination is a real possibility.  But if the Republican party were smart, they'd go with something like Pence-Haley 2024.  Of course, I'm not voting for that ticket, but there is no Republican ticket I would vote for in 2024.  

Edited March 22, 2023 by MrPotatoTed

[ShortKing]

I'm typically not eager to register strong opinions about what may or may not occur in the future, and as someone who thinks Mike Pence possesses a few admirable qualities, I am struck by the way that he's landed in a position where he is pleasing to nobody, for reasons well-articulated by this piece in the Atlantic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/03/gop-voters-mike-pence-2024-presidential-bid/673448/

[vcczar]

11 hours ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I don't think Tim Scott has any chance at being the anti-Trump candidate.  I get why it sounds good on paper, but in reality, he has zero charisma.  I expect he'll end up being about as relevant as Nikki Haley in 2024, which is to say "not at all."

Pence is the anti-Trump candidate.  And I get why that's weird, given that he was literally on the Trump ticket.  And also has no charisma.  But watching the 2016 and 2020 debates, Pence is absolutely amazing at making people forget that Donald Trump exists.  

I agree with you that DeSantis fizzes out.  I see it being a race between Trump, Pence, and DeSantis with DeSantis finishing third.  Trump winning the nomination is a real possibility.  But if the Republican party were smart, they'd go with something like Pence-Haley 2024.  Of course, I'm not voting for that ticket, but there is no Republican ticket I would vote for in 2024.  

I think you're overestimating Pence. He's polling terribly even with Trump off the poll. His favorables are worse than Trump's (not sure why). He has zero charisma (maybe that's why). He probably can't convert votes because 1) MAGA voters see him as a traitor, which probably means he can't win the general. 2) As Trump's VP, he might not really excite anti-Trump voters. He's sort of locked himself out and hasn't enough personality to get beyond it. I think he might be able to get more support than Pompeo, but that's it. While, Tim Scott isn't charismatic, he's generally likable, more so than Pence, DeSantis, and possibly Haley. There's isn't a charismatic Republican. 

Note: I don't count Trump as charismatic, because he's more unlikable than appealing to the general public. 

[MrPotatoTed]

12 hours ago, ShortKing said:

I'm typically not eager to register strong opinions about what may or may not occur in the future, and as someone who thinks Mike Pence possesses a few admirable qualities, I am struck by the way that he's landed in a position where he is pleasing to nobody, for reasons well-articulated by this piece in the Atlantic.

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2023/03/gop-voters-mike-pence-2024-presidential-bid/673448/

That was a very interesting read, and makes a compelling case.  I'd counter by pointing out that they're making this declaration based off conversations with only like 36 people.  And group discussions at that, where those who disagree may not feel comfortable speaking out.  

 

[MrPotatoTed]

15 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I think you're overestimating Pence. He's polling terribly even with Trump off the poll. His favorables are worse than Trump's (not sure why). He has zero charisma (maybe that's why). He probably can't convert votes because 1) MAGA voters see him as a traitor, which probably means he can't win the general. 2) As Trump's VP, he might not really excite anti-Trump voters. He's sort of locked himself out and hasn't enough personality to get beyond it. I think he might be able to get more support than Pompeo, but that's it. While, Tim Scott isn't charismatic, he's generally likable, more so than Pence, DeSantis, and possibly Haley. There's isn't a charismatic Republican. 

Note: I don't count Trump as charismatic, because he's more unlikable than appealing to the general public. 

The question isn't whether he can win the general election, the question is whether he could be the "not Trump" candidate for the nomination.  To me, he's the only obvious choice for that title.  Is he someone you'd want to have a beer with?  No.  But he's an exceptional debater, the voice of reason in the room, and I think that's going to be more compelling than you realize during the primaries.  He may not be able to fill a stadium to come listen to him talk like Trump can, but I do believe he can hold the "silent majority."   Enough to at least be competitive for the nomination, given the lack of other viable candidates.

I like JEB!, but he's toast.  The only other person I could see making a difference could be Chris Christie.  He's notable because was the first 2016 candidate to endorse Trump -- but then wasn't involved in anything that happened after.  Notably, he was supposed to be Trump's Chief of Staff but got booted before that.

He could make the case of "Hey, I tried to legitimately help Trump but he kicked me out of the room and everything that happened after that was a freaking dumpster fire."  And he's reasonably charismatic/likable, and the whole bridge thing doesn't seem so bad in comparison to literally everything that has happened since.

Could he win the nomination? Probably not.  But he could swing enough people his way to change outcomes potentially.

[Bushwa777]

I am going to play Devil's Advocate here. 

1) Trump did not lead the party in 2022 all of his candidates losing. If he does get arrested and no one shows up to protest or if people do show up to protest that kills him off for most either way.  The RW Populist get angry that Trump is not nominated and stay home refusing to vote. 

2) The Supreme Court throws out the Student Loan bailout and Biden cannot get Congress to pass this.  Students who would vote for the Democrats or young liberals angry at this and angry that Warren, AOC, or Sanders do not jump in stay home and refuse to vote. 

3) Prices continue to rise on everything as inflation goes through the roof and the GOP decides to use the slogan of James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!" and drum this throughout the campaign.  Biden does not campaign and Harris burns more bridges then she builds.  The Democrats get close but do not win the election. 

[MrPotatoTed]

2 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said:

I am going to play Devil's Advocate here. 

1) Trump did not lead the party in 2022 all of his candidates losing. If he does get arrested and no one shows up to protest or if people do show up to protest that kills him off for most either way.  The RW Populist get angry that Trump is not nominated and stay home refusing to vote. 

2) The Supreme Court throws out the Student Loan bailout and Biden cannot get Congress to pass this.  Students who would vote for the Democrats or young liberals angry at this and angry that Warren, AOC, or Sanders do not jump in stay home and refuse to vote. 

3) Prices continue to rise on everything as inflation goes through the roof and the GOP decides to use the slogan of James Carville, "It's the economy, stupid!" and drum this throughout the campaign.  Biden does not campaign and Harris burns more bridges then she builds.  The Democrats get close but do not win the election. 

So you think the winner is a close completion between not Trump, not Biden, not Harris, not Warren, not Bernie, and not AOC?  ;c)

[Bushwa777]

1 minute ago, MrPotatoTed said:

So you think the winner is a close completion between not Trump, not Biden, not Harris, not Warren, not Bernie, and not AOC?  ;c)

I have not figured out who the GOP nomination would be but think the Dems will go with Biden/Harris.  

[vcczar]

50 minutes ago, Bushwa777 said:

2) The Supreme Court throws out the Student Loan bailout and Biden cannot get Congress to pass this.  Students who would vote for the Democrats or young liberals angry at this and angry that Warren, AOC, or Sanders do not jump in stay home and refuse to vote. 

I'm pretty sure Biden has a backup plan on this. 

1) There's no way a GOP controlled house does anything about student loans, so that Congress passes anything isn't going to happen. He may have Democrats symbolically propose a bill for the GOP to defeat it just for the "Look what we would have passed had Democrats held Congress." 

2) I think the issue with the SC throwing out the student loan bill was partially due to it aiding only some Americans while not aiding everyone, and so "harming some people financially." What Biden could do are one of two things. First, he could try to abolish all student debt owed to the federal government, regardless of the debtor's income level. Secondly, he could reduce the automatic student debt forgiveness window from 20 years of reliable payment down to like 2 years, until the end of his term, and just wipe it all out. Last resort is to extend the student debt payment pause thorugh his term until a better solution is found. 

In regards to inflation, reports are showing that it is easing. It's more likely the economic situation will be about the same or better by election day, barring a major economic event, which is certainly possible. I don't think Biden will have a great economy on election day, but I don't think it will be worse than it is now, and likely a tad better, although probably not noticeable. I think that will be enough for voters if the alternate is Trump. If anyone else, that might be a different story. 

[Bushwa777]

5 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm pretty sure Biden has a backup plan on this. 

1) There's no way a GOP controlled house does anything about student loans, so that Congress passes anything isn't going to happen. He may have Democrats symbolically propose a bill for the GOP to defeat it just for the "Look what we would have passed had Democrats held Congress." 

2) I think the issue with the SC throwing out the student loan bill was partially due to it aiding only some Americans while not aiding everyone, and so "harming some people financially." What Biden could do are one of two things. First, he could try to abolish all student debt owed to the federal government, regardless of the debtor's income level. Secondly, he could reduce the automatic student debt forgiveness window from 20 years of reliable payment down to like 2 years, until the end of his term, and just wipe it all out. Last resort is to extend the student debt payment pause thorugh his term until a better solution is found. 

In regards to inflation, reports are showing that it is easing. It's more likely the economic situation will be about the same or better by election day, barring a major economic event, which is certainly possible. I don't think Biden will have a great economy on election day, but I don't think it will be worse than it is now, and likely a tad better, although probably not noticeable. I think that will be enough for voters if the alternate is Trump. If anyone else, that might be a different story. 

I would love to see student loans wiped out or the 2 or even 5 year scheme you propose.  V you should run for Congress 

[vcczar]

1 hour ago, MrPotatoTed said:

The question isn't whether he can win the general election, the question is whether he could be the "not Trump" candidate for the nomination.  To me, he's the only obvious choice for that title.  Is he someone you'd want to have a beer with?  No.  But he's an exceptional debater, the voice of reason in the room, and I think that's going to be more compelling than you realize during the primaries.  He may not be able to fill a stadium to come listen to him talk like Trump can, but I do believe he can hold the "silent majority."   Enough to at least be competitive for the nomination, given the lack of other viable candidates.

I like JEB!, but he's toast.  The only other person I could see making a difference could be Chris Christie.  He's notable because was the first 2016 candidate to endorse Trump -- but then wasn't involved in anything that happened after.  Notably, he was supposed to be Trump's Chief of Staff but got booted before that.

He could make the case of "Hey, I tried to legitimately help Trump but he kicked me out of the room and everything that happened after that was a freaking dumpster fire."  And he's reasonably charismatic/likable, and the whole bridge thing doesn't seem so bad in comparison to literally everything that has happened since.

Could he win the nomination? Probably not.  But he could swing enough people his way to change outcomes potentially.

I don't know if Pence can even do that. 

Pence is as unfavorable than Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/   Click "added" and then look at today's A+ rated Selzer for favorabilities. I'll type them here:

• Biden's disapproval is at 12 and 13 in the two polls. He has about 8% "I don't know." This 8% for an incumbent president with a low favorability is potentially promising. 
• Trump's disapproval is at 18 and 20. He has only 2 to 4% "I don't know." This means people already have their opinion on Trump. 
• Pence's is basically the same at 18 and 16. He has 11 to 14% "I don't know"  
• Haley is at only 3 and 4 disapproval. However, 40 to 53% have "I don't know" on here. She's got some potential here. 
• DeSantis is at 2 and 3 disapproval with 14 to 21% "I don't Know." His favorable is already higher than both Biden and Trump, so he's in the best position here, although I still think he flames out. 

I think overall, Pence isn't in the easiest position to be the "not Trump" candidate. 

[MrPotatoTed]

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

 

2) I think the issue with the SC throwing out the student loan bill was partially due to it aiding only some Americans while not aiding everyone, and so "harming some people financially." What Biden could do are one of two things. First, he could try to abolish all student debt owed to the federal government, regardless of the debtor's income level. Secondly, he could reduce the automatic student debt forgiveness window from 20 years of reliable payment down to like 2 years, until the end of his term, and just wipe it all out. Last resort is to extend the student debt payment pause thorugh his term until a better solution is found. 

All three of those options "only aid some Americans while not aiding everyone."  Many people have no college debt -- either because they paid it off, found a different way to pay for college that didn't require debt, or didn't go to college at all.

For example, the military has paid for all three of my degrees, so I have no debt.  My wife took advantage of a program at a nursing home she worked at, where her employer paid for her college education as a nurse in exchange for a commitment that she'd continue to work for them for a period of time after graduation.  Thus despite both coming from pretty poor backgrounds and having a lot of education between us, we've managed to do so with no monetary debt.  That's just two examples, of course.  Plenty of others out there with no college debt for one reason or another.

I'm not suggesting any of your suggestions are bad plans at face value, but if the goal is to get past the Supreme Court problem, it seems like we're not really addressing that with any of these plans.

[MrPotatoTed]

1 hour ago, vcczar said:

I don't know if Pence can even do that. 

Pence is as unfavorable than Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/   Click "added" and then look at today's A+ rated Selzer for favorabilities. I'll type them here:

• Biden's disapproval is at 12 and 13 in the two polls. He has about 8% "I don't know." This 8% for an incumbent president with a low favorability is potentially promising. 
• Trump's disapproval is at 18 and 20. He has only 2 to 4% "I don't know." This means people already have their opinion on Trump. 
• Pence's is basically the same at 18 and 16. He has 11 to 14% "I don't know"  
• Haley is at only 3 and 4 disapproval. However, 40 to 53% have "I don't know" on here. She's got some potential here. 
• DeSantis is at 2 and 3 disapproval with 14 to 21% "I don't Know." His favorable is already higher than both Biden and Trump, so he's in the best position here, although I still think he flames out. 

I think overall, Pence isn't in the easiest position to be the "not Trump" candidate. 

Your own pick of Tim Scott is so unlikely that he isn't even mentioned. Haha.

But the simple fact is that if we agree that nobody is currently particularly well positioned to be the "not Trump" candidate...and also agree that there's going to be a "Not Trump" candidate anyway...then we are by definition agreeing that there will be a "Not Trump" candidate who is not currently particularly well positioned to be that person.

I submit that the "not currently well positioned to be the Not Trump candidate" who is most likely to become the Not Trump candidate anyway is Mike Pence.  ;c)

 

Edited March 22, 2023 by MrPotatoTed

[DakotaHale]

19 hours ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Of course, I'm not voting for that ticket, but there is no Republican ticket I would vote for in 2024.  

I call bullshit. You'd be all over a Jeb! Bush/Liz Cheney ticket. 😉

[MrPotatoTed]

2 hours ago, DakotaHale said:

I call bullshit. You'd be all over a Jeb! Bush/Liz Cheney ticket. 😉

I like JEB! and would have happily voted for him over Clinton in 2016.  But the Republican Party has simply become too dangerous since then. Even if we get a reasonable person into the WH like JEB!, he’ll be dominated by the evil majority of the party.  They need to lose a few more elections to completely wash the MAGA out first.

 

[The Blood]

Marianne Williamson beats Vivek Ramaswamy in the GE.

I will not elaborate.