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My 2022 Predictions


vcczar
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Senate Race

I think all the elections that are leaning will go to who they are leaning toward. That means, no party flips among the leaning races. There are two toss ups: NC and PA. I think Democrats win PA and Republicans win NC. 

Result: Dems +1 (51-49). I think Polls will show 52-48 Dems. So Dems underperform. 

US House Race

I think almost all of these will go towards their partisanship lean, unless the US Rep is a popular moderate of the other party. Using this, I see Democrats losing the US House. 

Result: GOP +13 (226-209)

US Governorships

All but the tossups will stay with their party. No upsets. Of the tossups, only PA and AZ stay with the incumbent party.. Dems flip one state: GA. Republicans flips two tossups: KS and WI. The only other flip is MD to Democrats, but it isn't a tossup. It's leaning Blue. 

Result: GOP holds it's lead in governorships with the same 27-23 lead.  

Caveat

This assumes four things:

  • Biden's approval is still over 50% nationally. It's currently averaging about 54% -- ten points higher than Trump's average best!!!!!
  • Trump's investigations don't hurt his standing anymore with the public or the GOP than they already have. 
  • Trump isn't undermining Trump-critical GOP nominees in the general election in races where those nominees could win. 
  • Trump has not yet declared that he's running for president. 

If all four of these conditions go in a direction that are all good for the GOP, then I can see a Red Wave. If they stay the same, I think the results will be about as I have them now. If all four go in directions that favor Democrats, then I think Democrats could get 26 governors, 53 Senators, 217 US Reps (still losing 5 US Reps). I think this best case scenario for Democrats won't improve even if Trump is incarcerated. This is because I think there some conservatives who are anti-Democrat in the same way some voters are anti-Trump. The opposition is disliked more than their own faulty candidate/party. 

I should also think that I think Biden will be favored for reelection so long as his average approval is 48% or higher. If it falls to 46 or 47%, I think he will poll a tossup. 

 

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Honestly the Senate race in Ohio is competitive only because of two reasons, Tim Ryan is running and could be the only other person besides Sherrod Brown who can win back the blue-collar workers in Ohio, and if the Republican Primary gets incredibly ugly (which it already looks like it’s going to) it could irreparably damaged a lot of moderate Republicans into either not voting or holding their nose and supporting Ryan. Especially because all of the GOP candidates are trying to out MAGA each other

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I am well aware of the historical trends and how the House will likely flip to the GOP. But I honestly don't know what's going to happen, I feel like Democrats have a shot at holding it NARROWLY. Due to Republican leadership shooting themselves in the foot. Opposing Jan. 6 Commission, silencing Anti-Trump leaders, Liz Cheney fiasco, etc. 

We'll see though.

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12 minutes ago, Pringles said:

I am well aware of the historical trends and how the House will likely flip to the GOP. But I honestly don't know what's going to happen, I feel like Democrats have a shot at holding it NARROWLY. Due to Republican leadership shooting themselves in the foot. Opposing Jan. 6 Commission, silencing Anti-Trump leaders, Liz Cheney fiasco, etc. 

We'll see though.

We can only hope McCarthy and Pelosi both need to go.

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8 minutes ago, Sean F Kennedy said:

We can only hope McCarthy and Pelosi both need to go.

Yeah, I'm conflicted over whether or not if it would help or hurt Democrats for Pelosi to say she is retiring. If she retired, I would have liked Tim Ryan or some battleground state US Rep from a safe district to become Speaker. 

However, the next Democratic Speaker is likely to be Katherine Clark of MA, who is assistant Speaker of the House. Hoyer is at the position that would generally get it, but he's old, and so is Clyburn. AOC will get some votes, but she won't win it. 

Matt Cartwright of PA, GK Butterfield of NC, and Colin Allred of TX are from states that would be helpful to have a Speaker. 

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Just now, vcczar said:

Yeah, I'm conflicted over whether or not if it would help or hurt Democrats for Pelosi to say she is retiring. If she retired, I would have liked Tim Ryan or some battleground state US Rep from a safe district to become Speaker. 

However, the next Democratic Speaker is likely to be Katherine Clark of MA, who is assistant Speaker of the House. Hoyer is at the position that would generally get it, but he's old, and so is Clyburn. AOC will get some votes, but she won't win it. 

Matt Cartwright of PA, GK Butterfield of NC, and Colin Allred of TX are from states that would be helpful to have a Speaker. 

I feel like Speaker Jim Clyburn would be pretty based. Maybe I'm a bit biased though 😉 Carolina gang

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19 minutes ago, themiddlepolitical said:

What's your opinion on who will win the PA Senate Dem Primary? I'm pulling for Fetterman, Met him in person- Exactly how you'd expect him to be, laid back, easy to talk to, and has the right ideas for the job.

He's my preferred choice. However, I'll be okay with whoever has a better chance in the general. I don't know who will be the nominee.

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1 hour ago, themiddlepolitical said:

What's your opinion on who will win the PA Senate Dem Primary? I'm pulling for Fetterman, Met him in person- Exactly how you'd expect him to be, laid back, easy to talk to, and has the right ideas for the job.

To nominate Fetterman is to turn a solid pick up into a relatively easy Republican hold. Besides, he does not have the temperment, experience, or worldview for the job. He treats every public political engagement like he's a strongman performing at Barnum and Baileys. The last thing we need is more circus acts in the Senate.

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As someone who is a social conservative, we need less circus/radical folks (like Marjorie Taylor Greene, Matt Gaetz, Rashida Tlaib, Maxine Waters, etc.) (I know my radical can be your centrist, etc., but still according to context), and more reasonable folks who get the job done (like Larry Hogan for example).

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Actually, this is an interesting view:

Without looking forward to an extremity of this kind (which nevertheless ought not to be entirely out of sight), the common and continual mischiefs of the spirit of party are sufficient to make it the interest and duty of a wise people to discourage and restrain it.

It serves always to distract the public councils and enfeeble the public administration. It agitates the community with ill-founded jealousies and false alarms; kindles the animosity of one part against another; foments occasionally riot and insurrection. It opens the door to foreign influence and corruption, which find a facilitated access to the government itself through the channels of party passion. Thus the policy and the will of one country are subjected to the policy and will of another.

There is an opinion that parties in free countries are useful checks upon the administration of the government, and serve to keep alive the spirit of liberty. This within certain limits is probably true; and in governments of a monarchical cast patriotism may look with indulgence, if not with favor, upon the spirit of party. But in those of the popular character, in governments purely elective, it is a spirit not to be encouraged. From their natural tendency it is certain there will always be enough of that spirit for every salutary purpose; and there being constant danger of excess, the effort ought to be by force of public opinion to mitigate and assuage it. A fire not to be quenched, it demands a uniform vigilance to prevent its bursting into a flame, lest, instead of warming, it should consume. - George Washington

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On 5/28/2021 at 1:54 PM, Sean F Kennedy said:

Honestly the Senate race in Ohio is competitive only because of two reasons, Tim Ryan is running and could be the only other person besides Sherrod Brown who can win back the blue-collar workers in Ohio, and if the Republican Primary gets incredibly ugly (which it already looks like it’s going to) it could irreparably damaged a lot of moderate Republicans into either not voting or holding their nose and supporting Ryan. Especially because all of the GOP candidates are trying to out MAGA each other

As a fellow Ohioan I don’t think Tim Ryan has the same favorability that Sherries Brown does with right leaning farmers and working class. I know a lot of registered Republicans (who tend to be farmers) that love Brown for some reason.

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1 hour ago, DakotaHale said:

As a fellow Ohioan I don’t think Tim Ryan has the same favorability that Sherries Brown does with right leaning farmers and working class. I know a lot of registered Republicans (who tend to be farmers) that love Brown for some reason.

Well part of that is that he’s not relatively known like Sherrod, he’s a representative from Akron and Youngstown. If he gets name recognition up he could make up ground he lacks.

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6 hours ago, Patine said:

The Alliance party makes a political upset of monumental proportions and takes a plurality in the House, with the Libertarian, Green, and Constitution Parties, and the Party of Justice of Socialism, taking respectable caucuses, and a significant number of Independents, with only a few backwater, hold-out electoral district electing Democrats or Republicans. 😛

Of course, it's NOT going to happen, but wouldn't it be nice if American would realize that the two WORST parties they can ever vote for if they're hoping for liberty, democracy, justice, accountability, advancement, and progress, in truth, and Government accountability and transparency to the voters, not the self-serving internal engines of partisan power the plutocratic oligarchs who freely bribe them to do their bidding - the Republicans AND the Democrats. Two parties who have, in fact, had decades to show off their failure, corruption, culture of high crime and betrayal of the trust, and screwing over, lying to, and selling out, their own people.

I'm hoping that Congressional Elections (at least, those in the House) would be changed from FPTP to PR.

(Though, I do have some curiousity what a Presidential election might be like with a congressional district method in every state.)

Edited by Timur
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