Pringles Posted April 26 Share Posted April 26 I know @vcczar did this a while back before the 2022 Midterms, I'm personally a huge fan of this method, and the mastermind behind it: The Great Professor Alan Lichtman. With that said, I'm going to list how I feel about the 13 Keys for the 2024 election, and feel free to comment, do your own, or critique. There may be some I might be conflicted on. This is assuming Donald Trump is the 2024 GOP nominee, which looks more true with every passing day. My Final Tally: True - 9 False - 4 Biden has 9/13 keys to the White House. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. False - Though Democrats did outperform and gained Senate/Gubernatorial seats. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. (Robert F Kennedy Jr and Marianne Williamson are probably the two most unserious challengers Biden could get. RFK Jr. might start off with some signs of support, but all Democrat operatives have to do is show him hanging out with Roger Stone and other MAGA extremists, and he'll be toast.) All in all: True - no serious primary challenge. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. Obviously True. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. Bit of predicting the future here, but I don't see a third-party challenge as significant as we saw in the 2016 election which is where I'd make this false. Thus - True Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. Hard to say given our country cannot agree, nor discuss rationally what a recession is. While inflation is extremely damaging to our country, and Biden's approval ratings, I do not believe it qualifies as the kind of actual recession we're talking here. So: True. (Things could very well change though, however, they are not necessarily showing major signs of that so far, and yes, I'm betting against the constant doomsaying/repetition by some economists who said a recession was going to occur last year, now later this year. We'll just see) Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. True - A quick 3 AM Google search and the graph speaks for itself. Biden (thus far) is on track to have on average better GDP growth than Trump, and Obama, on average.) This can still change, but we're going with true for now. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. True - Biden's first term will likely go down as the most successful legislative period in the last decade. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. False - But conflicted... protests occurring in State Capitols around the country, along with the constant threat of another MAGA attack as they defend their beloved Trump from constant legal troubles, all in all just political polarization. At any rate, nothing compared to 2020-early 2021. Still bad though. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. Conflicted - I doubt Hunter Biden and whatever the House GOP tries to do (which they are already expected to try) and find some wrongdoing on Biden and/or his family, will be important to the voters. I will consider this True for now, as Biden hasn't been impeached or faced nearly the amount of scandals Trump has. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. False - Afghanistan is the biggest foreign policy disaster in the last decade without a doubt. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. True - Despite the Republican base turning on the issue of Ukraine's conflict with Russia, most Americans and perhaps half of Republicans at this point still support aiding Ukraine. This is a largely bipartisan issue proven time and time again, and Biden recently visited Ukraine, all in all, it's countering the worst foreign policy instances in the last decade with now one of the best. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. False - I don't need to elaborate much on this one. Biden is old and cannot speak like he could 10-20 years ago, and he's definitely not seen as a national hero. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. True - Donald Trump, despite a charismatic God to his following is not to the rest of the country, and probably 60% of the country considers him a national villain. Not a chance in Hell this one is false. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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