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Interesting Emerson Poll


vcczar

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An interesting Emerson Poll came out. [Note: This pollster gets an A-, so the poll is generally considered to be more thorough than other pollsters. ]

Here's some results from this 4/24-4/25 poll:

  • Biden approval is very low -- 41%. His disapproval is 49%, which means 10% of people don't know how they feel. This 10% is interesting. 
  • Despite a 41% approval, Biden beats Trump by 2 pts and DeSantis by 6 pts! However, 20% don't know who they'd vote for between Biden and DeSantis, while 14% don't know between Biden and Trump. Regardless, it's showing that 2% of people that either disapprove of Biden or don't know how they feel about him are supporting him over Trump or DeSantis, as Biden has 43% against both Trump and DeSantis. 
  • For the Dem Primary: Biden 70%, RFK JR 21%, Williamson 8%. 
  • For the GOP Primary: Trump 62%, DeSantis 16%, Pence 7%, Haley 3%, Ramaswamy 3%, Hutchinson 2%, Christie 2%, T Scott 0%, Sununu 0%. Trump extends his lead over DeSantis despite two major trials, including a rape trial. 
  • Generic Ballot: 42% Democrats and 42% Republicans. This shows Generic Dems outrunning Biden by 1% and outrunning support for DeSantis by 5% and Trump by 1%. 

On another note, I really like this website: https://www.racetothewh.com/president

Right now it's projecting Biden beating Trump 357-182, which is the highest I've seen. I really think it's closer than that and usually he shows a much, much closer election. I'm not sure what's going on today. In fact, he has FL and NC going Biden with Ohio as a tossup. He also has Biden at 99% likely to win. 

This guy was apparently really accurate with the midterms, which is when he got some attention. Today's analysis is probably the most questionable one he's published. I'm not sure why he's predicting a landslide when Trump seems to be increasing his lead on DeSantis (consolidating support) with each trial he faces in court. The analyst may be assuming a huge pro-Biden swing of undecideds or something. Let's hope! 

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1 hour ago, vcczar said:

An interesting Emerson Poll came out. [Note: This pollster gets an A-, so the poll is generally considered to be more thorough than other pollsters. ]

Here's some results from this 4/24-4/25 poll:

  • Biden approval is very low -- 41%. His disapproval is 49%, which means 10% of people don't know how they feel. This 10% is interesting. 
  • Despite a 41% approval, Biden beats Trump by 2 pts and DeSantis by 6 pts! However, 20% don't know who they'd vote for between Biden and DeSantis, while 14% don't know between Biden and Trump. Regardless, it's showing that 2% of people that either disapprove of Biden or don't know how they feel about him are supporting him over Trump or DeSantis, as Biden has 43% against both Trump and DeSantis. 
  • For the Dem Primary: Biden 70%, RFK JR 21%, Williamson 8%. 
  • For the GOP Primary: Trump 62%, DeSantis 16%, Pence 7%, Haley 3%, Ramaswamy 3%, Hutchinson 2%, Christie 2%, T Scott 0%, Sununu 0%. Trump extends his lead over DeSantis despite two major trials, including a rape trial. 
  • Generic Ballot: 42% Democrats and 42% Republicans. This shows Generic Dems outrunning Biden by 1% and outrunning support for DeSantis by 5% and Trump by 1%. 

On another note, I really like this website: https://www.racetothewh.com/president

Right now it's projecting Biden beating Trump 357-182, which is the highest I've seen. I really think it's closer than that and usually he shows a much, much closer election. I'm not sure what's going on today. In fact, he has FL and NC going Biden with Ohio as a tossup. He also has Biden at 99% likely to win. 

This guy was apparently really accurate with the midterms, which is when he got some attention. Today's analysis is probably the most questionable one he's published. I'm not sure why he's predicting a landslide when Trump seems to be increasing his lead on DeSantis (consolidating support) with each trial he faces in court. The analyst may be assuming a huge pro-Biden swing of undecideds or something. Let's hope! 

That Trump-Desantis spread is strange, And it looks like RFK Jr. is surprisingly consistently polling pretty high. 

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11 minutes ago, themiddlepolitical said:

That Trump-Desantis spread is strange, And it looks like RFK Jr. is surprisingly consistently polling pretty high. 

I wouldn’t consider that high.  I also want to know if that is polling registered Dems only for that question. I can’t see 20% of Dems supporting an anti-vaxer nut. 

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24 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I can’t see 20% of Dems supporting an anti-vaxer nut. 

Neither can I, but I can see 20% of Dems supporting someone with the last name Kennedy even if they know nothing about him.

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39 minutes ago, Rezi said:

Neither can I, but I can see 20% of Dems supporting someone with the last name Kennedy even if they know nothing about him.

Agreed, but once they do know, that will crater. I will be surprised if 10% of Dems or more flake away in primaries. 

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7 minutes ago, Hestia said:

Agreed, but once they do know, that will crater. I will be surprised if 10% of Dems or more flake away in primaries. 

I've said it before and I'll say it again, show this picture and he'll tank XD 

Victoria Brownworth on Twitter: "Here is RFK Jr at a Reawaken America event  in July 2021 with pardoned Trump NSA Mike Flynn, anti-vax profiteer  Charlene Bollinger, and Trump buddy Roger Stone. RFK

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8 hours ago, themiddlepolitical said:

That Trump-Desantis spread is strange, And it looks like RFK Jr. is surprisingly consistently polling pretty high. 

I guarantee people don't know who RKF Jr is yet, generally speaking.  "Ooh, a Kennedy, how fun!"

Once they find out what a clown this particular Kennedy is, those numbers will plummet.

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If it were up to me, RFK and Marianne would combine to form the voltron of happy times. And then they would make sure that our time was to be one filled with piece and happiness and love and all and the lord and savior Jesus Christ in heaven. And then it would be revealed that RFK he is actually the son of president bush bush president which would mean that republicans would vote for governor bush bush governor. And the. Voltron’s husband and I are both in north Greece. And then the economy would be better because of how it is which would mean that the southern plantation states would not need to unionize against the union. And then I l. And then Marianne Williamson is going to talk to her good friend Mary “Oprah” Oppenheimer Winfrey about how we the United oriole’s state republic of America would go on to solve the national debt issue. The RFI (he is catholic) would summon the space pope to come henceforth and save the US economy with the power of president bush bush president. Yeah.

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1 minute ago, DakotaHale said:

While I definitely would give Biden a +90% chance of victory, putting Florida above Georgia and Arizona as an 87% likely Dem state is moronic.

Texas and Ohio are more likely to flip than Florida, imo. Alaska, potentially, too, but that might just be the hopium talking.

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On 4/27/2023 at 10:56 AM, vcczar said:

Trump extends his lead over DeSantis despite two major trials, including a rape trial. 

an interesting question here is if it's despite the trials or because of the trials.

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On 4/27/2023 at 8:41 PM, MrPotatoTed said:

Once they find out what a clown this particular Kennedy is, those numbers will plummet.

Ted Kennedy got 37% in the primaries after accidentally killing a woman.

Edited by Imperator Taco Cat
Simplified wording
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22 minutes ago, Imperator Taco Cat said:

Ted Kennedy got 37% in the primaries after accidentally killing a woman.

People already knew who he was, liked him, and it was indeed an accident.

Trump’s crimes are On Purpose’s

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1 minute ago, MrPotatoTed said:

Trump’s crime are On Purpose’s

I was talking about Kennedy.

1 minute ago, MrPotatoTed said:

People already knew who he was, liked him, and it was indeed an accident.

He pleaded guilty to fleeing the scene of an accident, he also waited to report the death until after the body had been found and was driving negligently.

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RFK Jr.'s politics are repulsive to a large majority of Democrats (especially those Democrats who will turn out for a primary with an incumbent President running), he isn't particularly charismatic, and only right-wing media will give serious exposure to his campaign. All he has is his name, Biden's general unpopularity, and as the New York Post noted, deranged QAnon MILFs.

Screenshot(3362).png.ff57f4764814b548c376c39172b82591.png

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