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Which Party Would Win Out If We Had More States?


vcczar
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Say the following occurred, which party would end up with more US Senators if the following happened?

  • DC gains statehood
  • PR gains statehood
  • Texas is split into 5 states (capitals are Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso)
  • CA is split into 5 states (LA-city state, SF's county, then N CA, Central CA, S CA)
  • NY is split into 3 states (NYC city-state, the rest of Long Island, upstate NY)
  • FL is split into 2 states (North FL and South FL)
  • PA is split into 2 states (East PA and West PA)
  • NJ is split into 2 states (N NJ and S NJ)
  • OH is split into 2 states (N OH and S OH)
  • MI is split into 2 states (The mit MI and non-mit MI)
  • TN is split into 2 states ( W TN and E TN)
  • MO is split into 2 states (W MO and E MO)
  • IL is split into 2 states (Chicago city-state and the rest of IL)
  • AZ is split into 2 states (Navajo nation and rest of AZ)
  • GA is split into 2 states (N GA and S GA)
  • NC is split into 2 states (E NC and W NC)
  • VA is split into 2 states (N VA and SW VA)
  • WA is split into 2 states (W WA and E WA)

This should create 25 new states and 50 new US Senators. 

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It's feasible that North Ohio might be Democrat, thanks to Cleveland.  South Ohio will absolutely be Republican.

The two PA states might still be swing.  Though Philly (east) and Pittsburgh (west) are both reliably blue, the rest of the state is mostly red on both sides.

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48 minutes ago, vcczar said:

Say the following occurred, which party would end up with more US Senators if the following happened?

  • DC gains statehood
  • PR gains statehood
  • Texas is split into 5 states (capitals are Dallas, Houston, Austin, San Antonio, and El Paso)
  • CA is split into 5 states (LA-city state, SF's county, then N CA, Central CA, S CA)
  • NY is split into 3 states (NYC city-state, the rest of Long Island, upstate NY)
  • FL is split into 2 states (North FL and South FL)
  • PA is split into 2 states (East PA and West PA)
  • NJ is split into 2 states (N NJ and S NJ)
  • OH is split into 2 states (N OH and S OH)
  • MI is split into 2 states (The mit MI and non-mit MI)
  • TN is split into 2 states ( W TN and E TN)
  • MO is split into 2 states (W MO and E MO)
  • IL is split into 2 states (Chicago city-state and the rest of IL)
  • AZ is split into 2 states (Navajo nation and rest of AZ)
  • GA is split into 2 states (N GA and S GA)
  • NC is split into 2 states (E NC and W NC)
  • VA is split into 2 states (N VA and SW VA)
  • WA is split into 2 states (W WA and E WA)

This should create 25 new states and 50 new US Senators. 

You forgot how some counties in Oregon voted to leave and join Idaho.

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DC: Dems

Puerto Rico: Lean Dems (with a competitive GOP presence)

Arizona: Short term Republicans; Long term Dems

Georgia: Dems

Illinois: Republicans

Michigan: Short term Republicans; Long term Dems

Missouri: Republicans

Tennessee: Republicans

Virginia: Republicans

Washington: Republicans

Edited by jvikings1
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NYC: Safe safe safe safe safe Dem

Long Island: Likely Red

Upstate NY: Lean Dem. Similar to Minnesota in terms of PVI, although this depends on where you draw the line between upstate and downstate.

Edited by Rezi
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Just now, Patine said:

Of course, regardless of how you slice it or dice it, there, the two crippling problems of the EC and same two parties they make de facto unchallengeable, remain, and nothing is really solved or bettered. 😞

There's more hope with small states and districts that one US Senator might be of a 3rd party. A 3rd party could focus all of their energies in 3rd party-friendly smaller districts, especially if the incumbent is unpopular or if there is no incumbent running. 

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41 minutes ago, Patine said:

This is true. But, somehow, the House of Representatives seems LESS likely to elect Third Party members, despite being a bigger body with smaller districts. It seems to mostly happen when a Third Party surges nationally (like the Populists had a whole bunch, and I believe Teddy Roosevelt's Progressives had several, and so did the Free Soilers and Know-Nothings, and La Follette's Progressives dominated the delegation from Wisconsin for a while, as did the Non-Partisan League from North Dakota, and the pre-merger Farmer-Labor Party from Minnesota, etc.).

 

8 minutes ago, Timur said:

Well, who knows. Since Maine and Alaska now have ranked-choice voting, other states may follow.

(Though, Maine and Alaska also happen to be states where third party/independents do pretty well in comparison.)

 

ME, AK, VT, NM, MN are states that could potentially have a 3rd party US Senator. The thing that prevents it in the cases in these states are that the politicians of the major party will absorb the platform of the 3rd party just enough that a member of that 3rd party can't win. For instance, two of NM's US Reps are basically Green Party members philosophically. However, they're Democrats. A Green Party member isn't going to beat them because their platform will be mostly identical to these Democrats. Additionally, 3rd party politicians are more likely to win as Independents than as a Green or Libertarian since these labels are associated with getting 4% of a vote at most in many cases. 

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3 hours ago, Timur said:

Well, who knows. Since Maine and Alaska now have ranked-choice voting, other states may follow.

(Though, Maine and Alaska also happen to be states where third party/independents do pretty well in comparison.)

 

Ranked choice does not do anything when you don't have any suitable alternatives. Neither the left nor the right have third parties that act like they want to become realistic threats, leaving those who wish there were other options to work within the 2 parties.

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