Hestia Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-win-chesham-and-amersham-byelection-in-stunning-upset The Liberal Democrats have taken a seat off the Tories in a by-election in southern, leafy England. The seat has been Tory since its founding, and has fallen to the Liberal Democrats earlier tonight. The wave was huge, with a 20k+ majority flipped to an 8k majority for the Lib Dems. The party gained over 30% since the last outing in 2019. It shows that the limits of the Tory reach may not be able to reconcile building in the North with maintaining their base in southern England - where the Lib Dems, historically strong but recently weakening, may be on a bit of a revival (many seats they came in second in 2019). Senior Tories are jittery at the prospect of fighting both north and south in a future campaign cycle. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVProgressive Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Good for the LibDems, I don't like them, but they are better than the Tories. Hopefully a Labour resurgence in Wales, and North England, combined with a LibDem resurgence in South England, and SNP dominance in Scotland will knock Boris out of #10 next general election, but that is a long way away. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 51 minutes ago, Hestia said: https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/jun/18/lib-dems-win-chesham-and-amersham-byelection-in-stunning-upset The Liberal Democrats have taken a seat off the Tories in a by-election in southern, leafy England. The seat has been Tory since its founding, and has fallen to the Liberal Democrats earlier tonight. The wave was huge, with a 20k+ majority flipped to an 8k majority for the Lib Dems. The party gained over 30% since the last outing in 2019. It shows that the limits of the Tory reach may not be able to reconcile building in the North with maintaining their base in southern England - where the Lib Dems, historically strong but recently weakening, may be on a bit of a revival (many seats they came in second in 2019). Senior Tories are jittery at the prospect of fighting both north and south in a future campaign cycle. It appears tactical voting was in place by the non-Tory voters. That and a lower turnout from it being a by-election. It'll be interesting to see if tactical voting is used going forward in an attempt to keep the Tories from gaining a majority (which could also set up a second referendum for Scottish Independence). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 1 minute ago, jvikings1 said: It appears tactical voting was in place by the non-Tory voters. That and a lower turnout from it being a by-election. It'll be interesting to see if tactical voting is used going forward in an attempt to keep the Tories from gaining a majority (which could also set up a second referendum for Scottish Independence). Tactical voting was in place yes, but a 20% vote went straight from Tories to the Liberal Democrats. Just Labour+Green voters wouldn't have saved the Lib Dems. It's simply too big of a swing to chalk up to lower turnout (which was still a healthy 53%) and tactical voting. There is change in the area - predominantly local issues which could turn national with this by-election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just now, Hestia said: Tactical voting was in place yes, but a 20% vote went straight from Tories to the Liberal Democrats. Just Labour+Green voters wouldn't have saved the Lib Dems. It's simply too big of a swing to chalk up to lower turnout (which was still a healthy 53%) and tactical voting. There is change in the area - predominantly local issues which could turn national with this by-election. While there was certainly some movement from the Tories to Lib Dems, you have to wonder how a full election (with normal turnout) would affect the numbers. Usually, the more motivated supporters will get out to vote causing shifts to be skewed in that direction. However if this shift is even close to accurate, then you are very correct in the Tories facing a difficult fight ahead. Either way (or a combination), Scotland will be something to watch going into the next election. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 Just now, jvikings1 said: While there was certainly some movement from the Tories to Lib Dems, you have to wonder how a full election (with normal turnout) would affect the numbers. Usually, the more motivated supporters will get out to vote causing shifts to be skewed in that direction. However if this shift is even close to accurate, then you are very correct in the Tories facing a difficult fight ahead. Either way (or a combination), Scotland will be something to watch going into the next election. Absolutely, I'm unsure if the LDs would hold in a general (though with this kind of majority, maybe they would). They're also known for doing well in by-elections then promptly losing it in the general 😛 Scotland is definitely interesting and I like to watch that. Northern Ireland looks like they may have an election before long as well, with all the DUP mess that's been going on today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvikings1 Posted June 18, 2021 Share Posted June 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, Hestia said: Absolutely, I'm unsure if the LDs would hold in a general (though with this kind of majority, maybe they would). They're also known for doing well in by-elections then promptly losing it in the general 😛 Scotland is definitely interesting and I like to watch that. Northern Ireland looks like they may have an election before long as well, with all the DUP mess that's been going on today. For the first time ever, it seems like the republican vote in Northern Ireland might be stronger than the unionist, especially with the Alliance Party not taking sides in the matter. It'll be real interesting to see if there is an increased movement towards reunification (mainly after a strong republican result in the next election or two). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hestia Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, jvikings1 said: For the first time ever, it seems like the republican vote in Northern Ireland might be stronger than the unionist, especially with the Alliance Party not taking sides in the matter. It'll be real interesting to see if there is an increased movement towards reunification (mainly after a strong republican result in the next election or two). I think it's not unrealistic to think that Michelle O'Neill is the next FM and Naomi Long will be the Deputy. I really like the Alliance Party - I think it's something NI needs to begin to heal with itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 On 6/18/2021 at 1:11 PM, Hestia said: I think it's not unrealistic to think that Michelle O'Neill is the next FM and Naomi Long will be the Deputy. I really like the Alliance Party - I think it's something NI needs to begin to heal with itself. Out of curiosity, what should be the future of Northern Ireland? Should they be a part of Ireland or the UK? I like Naomi Long personally (even though I would support the right wing parties), and I think that where NI belongs should be decided by themselves in a referendum (or certain regions could vote to remain in the UK and certain regions vote to join Ireland), but I remember she was rather ambiguous about this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted June 22, 2021 Share Posted June 22, 2021 (edited) Labour got only 1.6%. I wonder why. Edited June 22, 2021 by Timur Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timur Posted June 23, 2021 Share Posted June 23, 2021 14 hours ago, Patine said: I don't see unification of the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland as a good thing, in essence. What is your vision? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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