Jump to content
The Political Lounge

2024 Poll (5/19/23)


vcczar

2024 Poll (5/19/23)  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. If you were told you would be given $1 million dollars for correctly predicting the winner of the GOP Primary for 2024, who do you predict will win?

    • Fmr Pres. Donald Trump
    • Gov. Ron DeSantis
    • Sen. Tim Scott
      0
    • Fmr UN Amb. Nikki Haley
      0
    • Fmr Gov Asa Hutchinson
      0
    • Mr. Vivek Ramaswamy
      0
    • Other GOPer, such as Christie, Borglum, Sununu, Pence, Hurd, etc. [Mention below]
      0
  2. 2. If you were told you would be given $1 million dollars for correctly predicting the winner of the Democratic Primary for 2024, who do you predict will win?

    • Pres. Joe Biden
    • Mr. Robert F Kennedy Jr
      0
    • Ms. Marianne Williamson
      0
    • Other Dem, such as Manchin, Harris, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, etc. [Mention below]
      0
  3. 3. Let's say both of the people you predicted won. You've got $2 million. You will get another $3 million if you accurately predict the winner of the 2024 election. Who wins?

    • My GOP prediction defeats my Dem prediction.
    • My Dem prediction defeats my GOP Prediction.


Recommended Posts

My prediction is that Trump gets renominated despite major legal problems, which results in a lot of GOP members withdrawing endorsements and probably voting for a 3rd party or alternate GOP nominee. I think Trump ends up seemingly increasingly more likely to go to jail. Some GOPers say they'll vote for Trump's VP as a write-in for president. This VP is probably going to be Nikki Lake or Sarah Huckabee-Sanders. 

Overall, I think the noticeably frailer Joe Biden completely wallops Trump, despite having only a 42 to 43% approval. Most people assume the election is really to elect Kamala Harris as many expect Biden to step down by the mid-terms. Harris could become president for 10 years if Biden resigns the day the Jan 2027 State of the Union address by the way, as she will not have served a majority of a term in succession. 

I think the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections will be considered collectively as the low point of post-Civil War presidential elections. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/19/2023 at 12:12 PM, vcczar said:

My prediction is that Trump gets renominated despite major legal problems, which results in a lot of GOP members withdrawing endorsements and probably voting for a 3rd party or alternate GOP nominee. I think Trump ends up seemingly increasingly more likely to go to jail. Some GOPers say they'll vote for Trump's VP as a write-in for president. This VP is probably going to be Nikki Lake or Sarah Huckabee-Sanders. 

Overall, I think the noticeably frailer Joe Biden completely wallops Trump, despite having only a 42 to 43% approval. Most people assume the election is really to elect Kamala Harris as many expect Biden to step down by the mid-terms. Harris could become president for 10 years if Biden resigns the day the Jan 2027 State of the Union address by the way, as she will not have served a majority of a term in succession. 

I think the 2016, 2020, and 2024 elections will be considered collectively as the low point of post-Civil War presidential elections. 

Zero chance Trump goes to jail.  Zero chance Biden resigns at any point in his presidency.  Zero chance the GOP splits the vote with a third party if Trump is the nominee.


 (I do think GOP would split if Trump was the third party candidate, but I expect him to be the GOP nominee.)

 

50/50 chance of Biden beating Trump.  People are less enthralled with Biden, but I don’t know anybody who loves Trump today but didn’t love him in 2020.

Edited by MrPotatoTed
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/19/2023 at 12:12 PM, vcczar said:

Harris could become president for 10 years if Biden resigns the day the Jan 2027 State of the Union address by the way, as she will not have served a majority of a term in succession. 

This scenario requires Biden to resign during the one day of the year that people are actively paying attention to him, AND that Kamala manages to win two consecutive Presidential elections on her own.  I don’t know which part is less likely. Haha.

 

I cannot see Kamala ever winning a general election as the top of the ticket — especially as a sitting President.

 

Even forgetting Kamala for a moment, this scenario requires Democrats to hold the White House for 16+ years.  We haven’t done that since term limits were established.

Edited by MrPotatoTed
  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, MrPotatoTed said:

This scenario requires Biden to resign during the one day of the year that people are actively paying attention to him, AND that Kamala manages to win two consecutive Presidential elections on her own.  I don’t know which part is less likely. Haha.

For the transfer of power he could very well just drop dead mid speech. (please god no)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MrPotatoTed said:

50/50 chance of Biden beating Trump.  People are less enthralled with Biden, but I don’t know anybody who loves Trump today but didn’t love him in 2020.

Surprised how much of a lowball this prediction is. It’s all opinion of course but I’m a Republican who plans to vote for Biden if it’s against Trump and Trump only. And if it’s against Trump I do believe he will expand his popular vote and electoral vote margin. The trends and data are pointing to this. Look at the results of recent special elections around the country. Look at the 2022 midterms. Donald Trump and his people are killing the electability of the GOP, along with the GOPs inability to compromise on several key issues.

GOP has lost ground in the popular vote in every election since 2012, and  obviously has lost every popular vote since 2008. I can name more trends but 2024 is not going to be pretty for the GOP, in my opinion. Finally, Gen Z plus Millennials will theoretically make up as much or a larger vote share than the older generations that tend to vote Republican. And Biden has even improved numbers with these older generations in 2020.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Pringles said:

Surprised how much of a lowball this prediction is. It’s all opinion of course but I’m a Republican who plans to vote for Biden if it’s against Trump and Trump only. And if it’s against Trump I do believe he will expand his popular vote and electoral vote margin. The trends and data are pointing to this. Look at the results of recent special elections around the country. Look at the 2022 midterms. Donald Trump and his people are killing the electability of the GOP, along with the GOPs inability to compromise on several key issues.

GOP has lost ground in the popular vote in every election since 2012, and  obviously has lost every popular vote since 2008. I can name more trends but 2024 is not going to be pretty for the GOP, in my opinion. Finally, Gen Z plus Millennials will theoretically make up as much or a larger vote share than the older generations that tend to vote Republican. And Biden has even improved numbers with these older generations in 2020.

I bet against Trump at every possible opportunity, and I lost every time -- except for 2020, of course.

Still, one win doesn't erase a hundred losses.  I expect him to do absolutely everything in his power to become President again, and he has considerable power (and no concern for legal ramifications, which is fair, because he never actually faces any).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, MrPotatoTed said:

I bet against Trump at every possible opportunity, and I lost every time -- except for 2020, of course.

I'll just say, the tide has changed (for now). Political eras come and go, and while I don't see the end of Trumpism in sight, I don't see the man himself being able to win as he did in 2016. Unless he ran against the worst possible people in the Democratic Party. Plus, as strange as it sounds, Donald Trump is 100x more crazy than he was 3 years ago. January 6th, the rise of Kari Lake, and other election-denying acolytes... these were not factors in 2020. Other than Trump pushing election skepticism which many didn't take seriously at the time. 

  • Agree 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...