Jump to content
The Political Lounge

A 2024 Election Prediction


vcczar

Recommended Posts

Here's my prediction if Trump runs 3rd party as a convict (write-in):

Biden wins several states with less than 45% support because DeSantis and Trump split votes, allowing Biden to get a plurality win. In some states. Biden claims a landslide mandate, despite winning the PV as only a plurality. Trump attack the GOP so vociferously that Democrats win several elections they otherwise would not have at the US Sen, US House, and local levels.

If this happens, I wonder what happens to the GOP for 2028.

This hypothetical is based on Trump saying that he's never going to drop out. I think that's true. He's poison for the GOP.

66Bdb.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

With a Trump third-party/independent run, there's a big question of how many states could allow Trump on the ballot. Most states have laws that could prevent a candidate losing the nomination from running on another ticket. Only a few explicitly include presidential candidates, but others have filing deadlines that de facto block jumping to another ticket if they make it far in the primary. Trump could probably still make enough enough ballots to effectively hand Democrats the election, but he'd be locked out of states like Texas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, DJBillyShakes said:

With a Trump third-party/independent run, there's a big question of how many states could allow Trump on the ballot. Most states have laws that could prevent a candidate losing the nomination from running on another ticket. Only a few explicitly include presidential candidates, but others have filing deadlines that de facto block jumping to another ticket if they make it far in the primary. Trump could probably still make enough enough ballots to effectively hand Democrats the election, but he'd be locked out of states like Texas.

That's why I say "Write in" for my post.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think this map is too generous to Trump. I know my state. Biden got around 43% of the popular vote here. With a GOP split I see him winning it. Same for some other southern states. (Mississippi and Louisiana) I think you’re right on the red states out west though. 
 

 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I kind of doubt Trump runs 3rd party. He's petty enough in that he would to spite Ron DeSantis or any Republican who threatens to take the mantle of party leader away from him, but given how serious this indictment is, and how it's the Biden DOJ prosecuting this case, I think self-interest and personal spite suggests his first priority should be seeing Biden lose in 2024.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, ShortKing said:

I kind of doubt Trump runs 3rd party. He's petty enough in that he would to spite Ron DeSantis or any Republican who threatens to take the mantle of party leader away from him, but given how serious this indictment is, and how it's the Biden DOJ prosecuting this case, I think self-interest and personal spite suggests his first priority should be seeing Biden lose in 2024.

I'm not sure. I think his feeling of being betrayed by his party--when he thinks he IS the party--is going to take priority over Biden. I bet he gets so obsessed over taking down the GOP nominee that he almost forgets about Biden. I think what you are imagining is a scenario involving a GOPer who doesn't have the kind of psychosis that Trump has. Trump's not committed to party or even ideology. He's committed to himself or at least his own propaganda about himself. I would be shocked if he was defeated in the primaries and then suddenly became normal and helped defeat Biden. I'ma about 98% certain he sees a party not renominating him as a party that betrayed him. Betrayal becomes a bigger enemy than Biden in this scenario.

  • Agree 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, vcczar said:

I'm not sure. I think his feeling of being betrayed by his party--when he thinks he IS the party--is going to take priority over Biden. I bet he gets so obsessed over taking down the GOP nominee that he almost forgets about Biden. I think what you are imagining is a scenario involving a GOPer who doesn't have the kind of psychosis that Trump has. Trump's not committed to party or even ideology. He's committed to himself or at least his own propaganda about himself. I would be shocked if he was defeated in the primaries and then suddenly became normal and helped defeat Biden. I'ma about 98% certain he sees a party not renominating him as a party that betrayed him. Betrayal becomes a bigger enemy than Biden in this scenario.

I just think his meltdown over this indictment shows that it's something he is genuinely worried about and something that feeds into his martyr complex that Joe Biden is politicizing and weaponizing the DOJ to take him down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, ShortKing said:

I just think his meltdown over this indictment shows that it's something he is genuinely worried about and something that feeds into his martyr complex that Joe Biden is politicizing and weaponizing the DOJ to take him down.

Obviously, he's mad at Biden now. I'm just sayin, he changes his target if the GOP doesn't nominated him because he'll see traitors as taking him down, not Biden. If Trump becomes ineligible because he's in jail, then I think he'll target Biden. If he is denied renomination during the primaries, which won't happen because of the trial as Trump will keep his cult followers, it will happen because of the GOP leaders actively working against him. At this point, Trump takes aim at them, and he won't stop when he loses renomination. At this point, it doesn't matter to Trump if Biden wins again. He'll take the GOP down with him, and then he can say, "If only you had listened to your voters and renominated me." sort of thing.  There's no way Trump takes on Biden as a non-nominee, except in the case he becomes ineligible to run. The only other scenario is if Trump drops out before the primaries are seriously underway--either to save himself from jail or because it's clear he won't win the primaries (the latter I don't expect to see). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...