vcczar Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 This is just for fun: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee? If not, who? Will RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson drop out before the first primary? While RFK Jr is a Democrat who is further left than Biden in most ways, his more controversial positions are aligned with MAGA. Considering the controversial positions gain more attention, RFK Jr's favorability among the GOP is net positive, while his favorability is net negative among Democrats. Considering this, if RFK Jr ran 3rd party, do you think he hurts Democrats or the GOP more? Do you expect any other major Democrats or GOP politicians declare a run for president in 2024? For major, include anyone that is an incumbent or former president, VP, Senator, US Rep, Governor, cabinet member, or celebrity. Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee? If not, who? Considering the expense of running a campaign, do you expect all of the following GOP "major" candidates to drop out before the first primary?: Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd. Who do you expect to benefit the most from the 1st GOP debate? Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, Ramaswamy, or Pence? Considering Pence isn't gaining any traction whatsoever and has Trump-level unfavorabilities, do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? Considering DeSantis has plateau'd and is dropping in the polls (he's basically at RFK Jr levels vs Trump now), do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? Who do you think Ramaswamy is more of a threat to? anti-Trump GOP candidates or fellow anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump? Currently, Scott and Ramaswamy are trending upwards as DeSantis dips, do you expect either Scott or Ramaswamy to supplant DeSantis at #2? Mitt Romney has called on Republicans to unite behind a single non-Trump GOP candidate to defeat Trump. Will such a strategy defeat Trump? If so, who is this candidate that will both excite the base of the GOP and pose a thread to Biden? Will DeSantis ever pose a threat to Trump? Chris Christie is arguably the most brutal and effective debator. He appears to have knocked Rubio out of the race for Trump in 2016. He's now turned his guns on Trump, coming up with such colorful comments as calling Trump and "one-man crime wave." However, Christie is much more moderate than the base of his party, and he has his own ethical issues. Does he have any shot at the nomination? If Trump is compelled to drop out because of a mountain of court cases and investigations, which of the following candidates benefits most? The only other anti-establishment businessman Ramaswamy or Ron DeSantis? In 2016, 3rd parties combined for almost 6% of the popular vote. In 2020, 3rd parties combined for only 2% of the popular vote, a significant drop. While we are likely to see a rematch of Trump and Biden, there are two major factors that should be considered for 2024 3rd party support: 1) While Biden is not anywhere nearly as divisive as Hillary Clinton or Trump, he's got a 40-41% approval. As such, both major nominees will be unpopular. 2) While the LIbertarian frontrunner at the point is probably the most obscure potential Libertarian nominee of the 21st century, the Green Party frontrunner is Cornell West, a celebrated and colorful political and social philosopher often seen on TV. Green will easily be the most recognizable Green Party nominee since Ralph Nader. With all this in mind, do you expect 3rd parties to play any sort of spoiler in the 2024 election? If Joe Biden is incapacited and forced to drop out before the Convention, but after most of the primaries have occurred, how do you expect the Democrats to select their nominee, and who will likely be that nominee? If Biden is compelled to drop out after nomination because of health, and Kamala Harris moves to the top of the ticket, do you expect it will shakeup the result of the election had Biden stayed on the ticket? Do you think if Biden wins a 2nd term, that Kamal Harris will end up finishing that term? If Donald Trump is the nominee for the GOP do you think his selection for VP will make or break the election for him? Say, if he selected Kari Lake, MTG, Boebert, or some other MAGA VP as opposed to, say, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConservativeElector2 Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee? If not, who? Yes. Idk maybe Newsom? Will RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson drop out before the first primary? No While RFK Jr is a Democrat who is further left than Biden in most ways, his more controversial positions are aligned with MAGA. Considering the controversial positions gain more attention, RFK Jr's favorability among the GOP is net positive, while his favorability is net negative among Democrats. Considering this, if RFK Jr ran 3rd party, do you think he hurts Democrats or the GOP more? Dems, but not sure Do you expect any other major Democrats or GOP politicians declare a run for president in 2024? For major, include anyone that is an incumbent or former president, VP, Senator, US Rep, Governor, cabinet member, or celebrity. The more the merrier, but hopefully John Bolton Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee? If not, who? Think so, but I hope for DeSantis (or anyone else, but Ron has the best chances). Considering the expense of running a campaign, do you expect all of the following GOP "major" candidates to drop out before the first primary?: Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd. Unfortunately yes. Who do you expect to benefit the most from the 1st GOP debate? Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, Ramaswamy, or Pence? Christie and Ramaswamy Considering Pence isn't gaining any traction whatsoever and has Trump-level unfavorabilities, do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? Yes that sounds feasible. Considering DeSantis has plateau'd and is dropping in the polls (he's basically at RFK Jr levels vs Trump now), do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No. Who do you think Ramaswamy is more of a threat to? anti-Trump GOP candidates or fellow anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump? anti-establishment candidates Currently, Scott and Ramaswamy are trending upwards as DeSantis dips, do you expect either Scott or Ramaswamy to supplant DeSantis at #2? Maybe. It's fine if it's going to be Scott, but Ramaswamy isn't my fav. Mitt Romney has called on Republicans to unite behind a single non-Trump GOP candidate to defeat Trump. Will such a strategy defeat Trump? If so, who is this candidate that will both excite the base of the GOP and pose a thread to Biden? Not sure, if that's the right approach especially considering Romney isn't popular among the GOP base. If you want to bet on another horse than Trump, you should rather react to natural dynamics (like the surge or Ramaswamy, Scott and maybe Christie). Will DeSantis ever pose a threat to Trump? Well, he still does right now as #2 in the polls. Chris Christie is arguably the most brutal and effective debator. He appears to have knocked Rubio out of the race for Trump in 2016. He's now turned his guns on Trump, coming up with such colorful comments as calling Trump and "one-man crime wave." However, Christie is much more moderate than the base of his party, and he has his own ethical issues. Does he have any shot at the nomination? I don't think so but who knows. If Trump is compelled to drop out because of a mountain of court cases and investigations, which of the following candidates benefits most? The only other anti-establishment businessman Ramaswamy or Ron DeSantis? I'd say DeSantis. In 2016, 3rd parties combined for almost 6% of the popular vote. In 2020, 3rd parties combined for only 2% of the popular vote, a significant drop. While we are likely to see a rematch of Trump and Biden, there are two major factors that should be considered for 2024 3rd party support: 1) While Biden is not anywhere nearly as divisive as Hillary Clinton or Trump, he's got a 40-41% approval. As such, both major nominees will be unpopular. 2) While the LIbertarian frontrunner at the point is probably the most obscure potential Libertarian nominee of the 21st century, the Green Party frontrunner is Cornell West, a celebrated and colorful political and social philosopher often seen on TV. Green will easily be the most recognizable Green Party nominee since Ralph Nader. With all this in mind, do you expect 3rd parties to play any sort of spoiler in the 2024 election? Maybe, can't say for sure. If Joe Biden is incapacited and forced to drop out before the Convention, but after most of the primaries have occurred, how do you expect the Democrats to select their nominee, and who will likely be that nominee? Possibly at their convention. I'd pick Newsom, but I could see pick them Harris... If Biden is compelled to drop out after nomination because of health, and Kamala Harris moves to the top of the ticket, do you expect it will shakeup the result of the election had Biden stayed on the ticket? Harris performs worse than Biden. Do you think if Biden wins a 2nd term, that Kamal Harris will end up finishing that term? Probably. Not because Biden may become even less presidential, but because to achieve the milestone of the first (black) female president. Even if she's not elected in her own right. If Donald Trump is the nominee for the GOP do you think his selection for VP will make or break the election for him? Say, if he selected Kari Lake, MTG, Boebert, or some other MAGA VP as opposed to, say, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, etc. A MAGA VP makes the path to victory more difficult for sure. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rezi Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee? If not, who? Yes. If not him, then it'll be Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom. Will RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson drop out before the first primary? Marianne probably, RFK no. While RFK Jr is a Democrat who is further left than Biden in most ways, his more controversial positions are aligned with MAGA. Considering the controversial positions gain more attention, RFK Jr's favorability among the GOP is net positive, while his favorability is net negative among Democrats. Considering this, if RFK Jr ran 3rd party, do you think he hurts Democrats or the GOP more? Equally Do you expect any other major Democrats or GOP politicians declare a run for president in 2024? For major, include anyone that is an incumbent or former president, VP, Senator, US Rep, Governor, cabinet member, or celebrity. I think the GOP candidates are all in by now. Apparently some moderate Dem Rep is thinking about challenging Biden so maybe he jumps in. Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee? If not, who? Yes. If he's out for some reason, it'll be Ramaswamy or Tim Scott. Considering the expense of running a campaign, do you expect all of the following GOP "major" candidates to drop out before the first primary?: Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd. Hurd drops out, Burgum stays in, Asa could do either. Who do you expect to benefit the most from the 1st GOP debate? Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, Ramaswamy, or Pence? Scott Considering Pence isn't gaining any traction whatsoever and has Trump-level unfavorabilities, do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No. Considering DeSantis has plateau'd and is dropping in the polls (he's basically at RFK Jr levels vs Trump now), do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No. Who do you think Ramaswamy is more of a threat to? anti-Trump GOP candidates or fellow anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump? anti-Trump GOP Currently, Scott and Ramaswamy are trending upwards as DeSantis dips, do you expect either Scott or Ramaswamy to supplant DeSantis at #2? No. Mitt Romney has called on Republicans to unite behind a single non-Trump GOP candidate to defeat Trump. Will such a strategy defeat Trump? If so, who is this candidate that will both excite the base of the GOP and pose a thread to Biden? A strategy wouldn't defeat Trump. The closest thing would be Tim Scott. Will DeSantis ever pose a threat to Trump? No. Chris Christie is arguably the most brutal and effective debator. He appears to have knocked Rubio out of the race for Trump in 2016. He's now turned his guns on Trump, coming up with such colorful comments as calling Trump and "one-man crime wave." However, Christie is much more moderate than the base of his party, and he has his own ethical issues. Does he have any shot at the nomination? No. He's simply there to hurt other candidates and maybe get some delegates in New Hampshire. If Trump is compelled to drop out because of a mountain of court cases and investigations, which of the following candidates benefits most? The only other anti-establishment businessman Ramaswamy or Ron DeSantis? Ramaswamy. In 2016, 3rd parties combined for almost 6% of the popular vote. In 2020, 3rd parties combined for only 2% of the popular vote, a significant drop. While we are likely to see a rematch of Trump and Biden, there are two major factors that should be considered for 2024 3rd party support: 1) While Biden is not anywhere nearly as divisive as Hillary Clinton or Trump, he's got a 40-41% approval. As such, both major nominees will be unpopular. 2) While the LIbertarian frontrunner at the point is probably the most obscure potential Libertarian nominee of the 21st century, the Green Party frontrunner is Cornell West, a celebrated and colorful political and social philosopher often seen on TV. Green will easily be the most recognizable Green Party nominee since Ralph Nader. With all this in mind, do you expect 3rd parties to play any sort of spoiler in the 2024 election? No. If Joe Biden is incapacited and forced to drop out before the Convention, but after most of the primaries have occurred, how do you expect the Democrats to select their nominee, and who will likely be that nominee? Convention fight that ends up rallying to Harris. If Biden is compelled to drop out after nomination because of health, and Kamala Harris moves to the top of the ticket, do you expect it will shakeup the result of the election had Biden stayed on the ticket? Yes, Harris will lose to Trump. Do you think if Biden wins a 2nd term, that Kamal Harris will end up finishing that term? No. If Donald Trump is the nominee for the GOP do you think his selection for VP will make or break the election for him? Say, if he selected Kari Lake, MTG, Boebert, or some other MAGA VP as opposed to, say, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, etc. His VP can only make things worse for him, not better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rodja Posted July 28, 2023 Share Posted July 28, 2023 1.Yes,he will be. 2.No,I guess they will stay in until NH,Kennedy might even run 3rd party. 3.I guess he will hurt GOP more,since Republicans like him way more. 4.Nope 5.I guess he will be. 6.Yep 7.Christie,he's a great attack dog debater. 8.Very likely 9.No,he will stay in at least until Super Tuesday 10.Trump,cause they appeal to the same base. 11.Too early to say,but I guess Scott could do it. 12.Yes,it would,but Republicans running for President are too dumb and narcissistic to make such a move. 13.No,he's weak and uncharismatic fascist running against a strong and charismatic fascist. 14.No,he's way too sane for modern GOP. 15.Ramaswamy 16.No,they won't get any real traction 17.Kamala Harris 18.Harris would likely perform much worse,perhaps even lose to Trump. 19.No,he's healthy,strong and ready to go. 20.Make things worse. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brunell Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 (edited) Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee? If not, who? Yes. Will RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson drop out before the first primary? No, because they've been put up by Republicans (RFK Jr.) to embarrass Biden/make the primary "bloody", even though RFK Jr. is largely failing to do that with his name rec./money because he's an idiot. While RFK Jr is a Democrat who is further left than Biden in most ways, his more controversial positions are aligned with MAGA. Considering the controversial positions gain more attention, RFK Jr's favorability among the GOP is net positive, while his favorability is net negative among Democrats. Considering this, if RFK Jr ran 3rd party, do you think he hurts Democrats or the GOP more? Neither, because people are beginning o realize he's a Quack. If he ran third party I don't think he would break 1% of the vote. Do you expect any other major Democrats or GOP politicians declare a run for president in 2024? For major, include anyone that is an incumbent or former president, VP, Senator, US Rep, Governor, cabinet member, or celebrity. No, but if so, Youngkin. Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee? If not, who? Most likely (sadly); if convicted, he probably gets replaced with DeSantis, Pence or Haley. Considering the expense of running a campaign, do you expect all of the following GOP "major" candidates to drop out before the first primary?: Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd. Hutchinson. Who do you expect to benefit the most from the 1st GOP debate? Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, Ramaswamy, or Pence? Hopefully DeSantis since he's my preferred candidate, but most likely Christie Considering Pence isn't gaining any traction whatsoever and has Trump-level unfavorabilities, do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No, but he'll be out by Super Tuesday. Considering DeSantis has plateau'd and is dropping in the polls (he's basically at RFK Jr levels vs Trump now), do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No; he will stay in precisely because I think he knows Trump will be convicted, and I don't think the RNC rants to run a convict for President; my theory is after Trump's conviction, the RNC will free up Trump delegates, allowing DeSantis or someone else to be named nominee at the convention. Who do you think Ramaswamy is more of a threat to? anti-Trump GOP candidates or fellow anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump? Ramaswamy is a threat to DeSantis, sadly. But then again, Ramaswamy is a not serious person who has zero redeemable qualities as a candidate or person and has never said anything of substance anytime he's opened his mouth, so he only really has a high floor, no ceiling whatsoever. Currently, Scott and Ramaswamy are trending upwards as DeSantis dips, do you expect either Scott or Ramaswamy to supplant DeSantis at #2? Scott. Mitt Romney has called on Republicans to unite behind a single non-Trump GOP candidate to defeat Trump. Will such a strategy defeat Trump? If so, who is this candidate that will both excite the base of the GOP and pose a thread to Biden? Yes. Polling has shown it would. If this happened behind Haley, Scott or DeSantis, with them being the sole anti-trump candidate, trump would lose. Will DeSantis ever pose a threat to Trump? Hopefully, but looking unlikely as we stand. Chris Christie is arguably the most brutal and effective debator. He appears to have knocked Rubio out of the race for Trump in 2016. He's now turned his guns on Trump, coming up with such colorful comments as calling Trump and "one-man crime wave." However, Christie is much more moderate than the base of his party, and he has his own ethical issues. Does he have any shot at the nomination? No, but he's not running to be nominee. He's running to rid a once great party of a traitorous, pyschotic criminal who has put himself over the Republic dozens of times. If Trump is compelled to drop out because of a mountain of court cases and investigations, which of the following candidates benefits most? The only other anti-establishment businessman Ramaswamy or Ron DeSantis? DeSantis. In 2016, 3rd parties combined for almost 6% of the popular vote. In 2020, 3rd parties combined for only 2% of the popular vote, a significant drop. While we are likely to see a rematch of Trump and Biden, there are two major factors that should be considered for 2024 3rd party support: 1) While Biden is not anywhere nearly as divisive as Hillary Clinton or Trump, he's got a 40-41% approval. As such, both major nominees will be unpopular. 2) While the LIbertarian frontrunner at the point is probably the most obscure potential Libertarian nominee of the 21st century, the Green Party frontrunner is Cornell West, a celebrated and colorful political and social philosopher often seen on TV. Green will easily be the most recognizable Green Party nominee since Ralph Nader. With all this in mind, do you expect 3rd parties to play any sort of spoiler in the 2024 election? Possibly West. If Joe Biden is incapacited and forced to drop out before the Convention, but after most of the primaries have occurred, how do you expect the Democrats to select their nominee, and who will likely be that nominee? Kamala. If Biden is compelled to drop out after nomination because of health, and Kamala Harris moves to the top of the ticket, do you expect it will shakeup the result of the election had Biden stayed on the ticket? Probably. Do you think if Biden wins a 2nd term, that Kamal Harris will end up finishing that term? Yes. If Donald Trump is the nominee for the GOP do you think his selection for VP will make or break the election for him? Say, if he selected Kari Lake, MTG, Boebert, or some other MAGA VP as opposed to, say, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, etc. Haley, Scott, or maybe Yougnkin (not likely with the very odd, borderline Asian-phobic comment he made about Youngkin). Edited July 29, 2023 by Brunell 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVProgressive Posted July 29, 2023 Share Posted July 29, 2023 Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee? If not, who? If Joe Biden is still alive, and running for the nomination it's his to lose. If not Biden, probably Kamala. Will RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson drop out before the first primary? No, I think they're in it until at least New Hampshire While RFK Jr is a Democrat who is further left than Biden in most ways, his more controversial positions are aligned with MAGA. Considering the controversial positions gain more attention, RFK Jr's favorability among the GOP is net positive, while his favorability is net negative among Democrats. Considering this, if RFK Jr ran 3rd party, do you think he hurts Democrats or the GOP more? If Trump's the nominee, he hurts Biden more; if Trump isn't the nominee, he hurts the GOP more. Do you expect any other major Democrats or GOP politicians declare a run for president in 2024? For major, include anyone that is an incumbent or former president, VP, Senator, US Rep, Governor, cabinet member, or celebrity. For Dems: Dean Phillips, and an outside chance of Joe Manchin. For Reps: Rick Perry and Glenn Youngkin Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee? If not, who? Yes, and even if he does get convicted I could see him still being the nominee. If it's not him, it's DeSantis Ramaswamy, or Scott, in that order. Considering the expense of running a campaign, do you expect all of the following GOP "major" candidates to drop out before the first primary?: Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd. I could see Hutch, and Hurd withdrawing, but I think Burgum is in it until Super Tuesday. Who do you expect to benefit the most from the 1st GOP debate? Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, Ramaswamy, or Pence? Christie is the strongest debater of the group. I think DeSantis will perform the worst. Considering Pence isn't gaining any traction whatsoever and has Trump-level unfavorabilities, do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? I think he'll stay in until Iowa, but he's probably out after that. Considering DeSantis has plateau'd and is dropping in the polls (he's basically at RFK Jr levels vs Trump now), do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No, this is in all likelihood his only shot at the presidency, and I think he realizes that. Who do you think Ramaswamy is more of a threat to? anti-Trump GOP candidates or fellow anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump? Trump, but I doubt he really makes an impact either way. Currently, Scott and Ramaswamy are trending upwards as DeSantis dips, do you expect either Scott or Ramaswamy to supplant DeSantis at #2? Yes, I think either of them are likely to supplant DeSantis as the main not-Trump candidate. Mitt Romney has called on Republicans to unite behind a single non-Trump GOP candidate to defeat Trump. Will such a strategy defeat Trump? If so, who is this candidate that will both excite the base of the GOP and pose a thread to Biden? It won't work, the majority of Republicans love their President, and all the beltway pundits in the world won't change that. If it did materialize, and somehow worked, it would probably be Tim Scott, with a Trump ally as VP, even then I doubt that ticket would win. Will DeSantis ever pose a threat to Trump? Nope. Chris Christie is arguably the most brutal and effective debator. He appears to have knocked Rubio out of the race for Trump in 2016. He's now turned his guns on Trump, coming up with such colorful comments as calling Trump and "one-man crime wave." However, Christie is much more moderate than the base of his party, and he has his own ethical issues. Does he have any shot at the nomination? No. If Trump is compelled to drop out because of a mountain of court cases and investigations, which of the following candidates benefits most? The only other anti-establishment businessman Ramaswamy or Ron DeSantis? I think Ramaswamy would win that circumstance, so long as he has name recognition on par with Ron DeSantis In 2016, 3rd parties combined for almost 6% of the popular vote. In 2020, 3rd parties combined for only 2% of the popular vote, a significant drop. While we are likely to see a rematch of Trump and Biden, there are two major factors that should be considered for 2024 3rd party support: 1) While Biden is not anywhere nearly as divisive as Hillary Clinton or Trump, he's got a 40-41% approval. As such, both major nominees will be unpopular. 2) While the LIbertarian frontrunner at the point is probably the most obscure potential Libertarian nominee of the 21st century, the Green Party frontrunner is Cornell West, a celebrated and colorful political and social philosopher often seen on TV. Green will easily be the most recognizable Green Party nominee since Ralph Nader. With all this in mind, do you expect 3rd parties to play any sort of spoiler in the 2024 election? It's going to look a lot more like 2020, than 2016, but I do think the third party vote share will increase. West is an idiot, a radical, and not fit to be President, even then he'll probably be the best performing third party candidate with a whopping 1%. If Joe Biden is incapacited and forced to drop out before the Convention, but after most of the primaries have occurred, how do you expect the Democrats to select their nominee, and who will likely be that nominee? They'll likely release Biden's delegates, and ask that they support Kamala Harris for President. If Biden is compelled to drop out after nomination because of health, and Kamala Harris moves to the top of the ticket, do you expect it will shakeup the result of the election had Biden stayed on the ticket? Such an unprecedented move would likely doom the Democratic ticket in 2024, barring a massive disaster for the GOP. Do you think if Biden wins a 2nd term, that Kamal Harris will end up finishing that term? No, concerns about his age are honestly just tabloid gossip for the most part. Sure he's old, but he has a healthy lifestyle, and access to top class medical care. He'll be just fine. If Donald Trump is the nominee for the GOP do you think his selection for VP will make or break the election for him? Say, if he selected Kari Lake, MTG, Boebert, or some other MAGA VP as opposed to, say, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, etc. I don't think there's a single human being on this planet who can get Donald Trump elected without, funnily enough, massive voter fraud. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnewt Posted August 2, 2023 Share Posted August 2, 2023 On 7/28/2023 at 1:03 PM, vcczar said: This is just for fun: Will Joe Biden be the Democratic nominee? If not, who? Yes Will RFK Jr and Marianne Williamson drop out before the first primary? No. They already know they have no chance of winning, they may as well stick it out through a couple primaries. While RFK Jr is a Democrat who is further left than Biden in most ways, his more controversial positions are aligned with MAGA. Considering the controversial positions gain more attention, RFK Jr's favorability among the GOP is net positive, while his favorability is net negative among Democrats. Considering this, if RFK Jr ran 3rd party, do you think he hurts Democrats or the GOP more? Probably GOP. The only Democratic voters who will vote for him will be based off his last name. "Independents" who voted for Trump in 2020 for being anti-establishment might entertain voting for RFK Jr. Do you expect any other major Democrats or GOP politicians declare a run for president in 2024? For major, include anyone that is an incumbent or former president, VP, Senator, US Rep, Governor, cabinet member, or celebrity. No. There will probably be another minor celebrity or no-name politician who declares third party, though. Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee? If not, who? Yes, even if he's imprisoned. Considering the expense of running a campaign, do you expect all of the following GOP "major" candidates to drop out before the first primary?: Doug Burgum, Asa Hutchinson, and Will Hurd. Probably Hurd and possibly Hutchinson. Not Burgum. Who do you expect to benefit the most from the 1st GOP debate? Trump, DeSantis, Scott, Haley, Christie, Ramaswamy, or Pence? Scott, but only if Trump doesn't attend. No one benefits if Trump attends. Considering Pence isn't gaining any traction whatsoever and has Trump-level unfavorabilities, do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No, unless the others (besides Trump and DeSantis) coalesce behind another anti-Trump candidate. Considering DeSantis has plateau'd and is dropping in the polls (he's basically at RFK Jr levels vs Trump now), do you think he drops out before the 1st primary? No. Trump will bully him into embarrassing himself by staying in longer. Who do you think Ramaswamy is more of a threat to? anti-Trump GOP candidates or fellow anti-establishment candidate Donald Trump? Trump, but truly no one Currently, Scott and Ramaswamy are trending upwards as DeSantis dips, do you expect either Scott or Ramaswamy to supplant DeSantis at #2? Scott could potentially, if he has a successful debate Mitt Romney has called on Republicans to unite behind a single non-Trump GOP candidate to defeat Trump. Will such a strategy defeat Trump? If so, who is this candidate that will both excite the base of the GOP and pose a thread to Biden? It probably would, but they're not actually capable of uniting like that. Tim Scott would probably pose the biggest threat to Biden, but would not expect the now pro-Trump GOP base. Will DeSantis ever pose a threat to Trump? No. Chris Christie is arguably the most brutal and effective debator. He appears to have knocked Rubio out of the race for Trump in 2016. He's now turned his guns on Trump, coming up with such colorful comments as calling Trump and "one-man crime wave." However, Christie is much more moderate than the base of his party, and he has his own ethical issues. Does he have any shot at the nomination? No. If Trump is compelled to drop out because of a mountain of court cases and investigations, which of the following candidates benefits most? The only other anti-establishment businessman Ramaswamy or Ron DeSantis? Ron DeSantis In 2016, 3rd parties combined for almost 6% of the popular vote. In 2020, 3rd parties combined for only 2% of the popular vote, a significant drop. While we are likely to see a rematch of Trump and Biden, there are two major factors that should be considered for 2024 3rd party support: 1) While Biden is not anywhere nearly as divisive as Hillary Clinton or Trump, he's got a 40-41% approval. As such, both major nominees will be unpopular. 2) While the LIbertarian frontrunner at the point is probably the most obscure potential Libertarian nominee of the 21st century, the Green Party frontrunner is Cornell West, a celebrated and colorful political and social philosopher often seen on TV. Green will easily be the most recognizable Green Party nominee since Ralph Nader. With all this in mind, do you expect 3rd parties to play any sort of spoiler in the 2024 election? No. If Joe Biden is incapacited and forced to drop out before the Convention, but after most of the primaries have occurred, how do you expect the Democrats to select their nominee, and who will likely be that nominee? I feel like it would have to be someone from the administration, so Harris and Buttigieg are the two names that come to mind, but are too unfavorable. Maybe Tom Vilsack? He's experienced but in his 70s. Maybe Gretchen Whitmer or Tammy Duckworth, as they're both high up in the DNC. Newsom would probably be the best choice, though. If Biden is compelled to drop out after nomination because of health, and Kamala Harris moves to the top of the ticket, do you expect it will shakeup the result of the election had Biden stayed on the ticket? Probably not. Do you think if Biden wins a 2nd term, that Kamal Harris will end up finishing that term? No If Donald Trump is the nominee for the GOP do you think his selection for VP will make or break the election for him? Say, if he selected Kari Lake, MTG, Boebert, or some other MAGA VP as opposed to, say, Tim Scott, Mike Pence, Ted Cruz, etc. No. Trump is more polarizing than anyone he could select as VP. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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