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Party Trends in the US


vcczar
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This is a really helpful website: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/trends/

I recommend using the "circles" function as it is the most informative:

  • West Coast is certainly trending further Blue
  • Southwest is trending Blue; although TX is holding Red but the red circle is quickly shrinking.
  • Mountain states are mostly holding Red, except for CO, which is becoming more Blue.
  • HI is holding Blue; AK is holding Red but is less so than it used to be.
  • Great Plains are holding Red; IL and MN are defiantly Blue, but it's only a hold. IL's blue circle might actually be slowly shrinking.
  • GOP's one region of major growth is the Midwest. Dems are generally holding WI and MI, but I could see a less controversial GOPer nominee make it an obvious trend Red.
  • Upper South has good news for everyone. AR, TN, KY are becoming even more Red; however, VA is now clearly trend Blue and NC seems to be heading that direction. 
  • Deep South is mostly good for the GOP--FL is clearly trending Red. However, Dems are shrinking the red circles in SC and MS, while GA is now has a slight Blue Circle. The Deep South, aside from FL, used to have large Red circles, Dems have made a lot of inroads. 
  • Mid-Atlantic is clearly Blue, but the circles are shrinking. I'm wondering if the GOP makes a breakthrough here in a decade or two. 
  • New England is holding Blue and might be slightly increasing in Blue. 

I recommend clicking Texas and looking at the state-wide trend to see how much that state has changed from 2000 to 2020, using the circles graph. The pathway for Dems to TX is clearly the cities. They aren't really changing the circles much in rural TX, but urban TX is exploding Blue. If they can keep this turnout and get more turnout in the border counties then this state is going to be purple-to-blue.

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14 minutes ago, Patine said:

If Sanders had been the Democratic nominee in 2016, and Jeb!, Cruz, or even Rubio, - or possibly even Kasich, and certainly Paul had been the Republican nominee, Sanders probably would have easily picked up this alienated demographic with his message from a different angle.

I agree with this. I stopped reading your first sentence. 

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51 minutes ago, vcczar said:

This is a really helpful website: https://projects.jhkforecasts.com/trends/

I recommend using the "circles" function as it is the most informative:

  • Great Plains are holding Red; IL and MN are defiantly Blue, but it's only a hold. IL's blue circle might actually be slowly shrinking.

Amazing site!

What's your reasoning behind IL trending slightly Red? People moving away from Chicago or growing unhappy about how Chicago's being governed?

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5 minutes ago, ConservativeElector2 said:

Amazing site!

What's your reasoning behind IL trending slightly Red? People moving away from Chicago or growing unhappy about how Chicago's being governed?

Not sure. I think rural IL and small town IL is just becoming more red. 

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On 7/7/2021 at 12:11 PM, vcczar said:

Not sure. I think rural IL and small town IL is just becoming more red. 

Southern Illinois is becoming heavily Republican at all levels (state, county, federal).  Personally, I don’t see Illinois flipping anytime.  Cook county is losing population, but so is downstate. 

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On 7/7/2021 at 1:11 PM, vcczar said:

Not sure. I think rural IL and small town IL is just becoming more red. 

 

23 minutes ago, Beetlejuice said:

Southern Illinois is becoming heavily Republican at all levels (state, county, federal).  Personally, I don’t see Illinois flipping anytime.  Cook county is losing population, but so is downstate. 

As someone originally from downstate Illinois, both are correct. It is a very conservative area, but people are trying their hardest to get out of that dumpsterfire state. Very unlikely to see a switch anytime soon, especially with Chicago dominating the state (a Republican MUST win every other county outside Cook if they want a chance to win)

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Just now, Patine said:

I must ask - you call a Hell of a lot of things, "dumpsterfires." Where are these, "dumpsterfires," actually NOT - that is, what are they in relative to? There doesn't seem to be a lot left from your total narrative...

I've labeled 2 things that to my memory (the LP and Illinois). The label is an accurate portrayal of both.

Illinois: Numerous governors in prison for corruption. The Chicago machine dominates the state. The former speaker of the house Michael Madigan basically ran the state for over 20 years (with his daughter in the AG office for a number of those). Anyone outside of Chicago (in either party) has pretty much no chance at making an impact. Pensions are bankrupted. Taxes are sky high. The capital city (Springfield) is an absolute dump. Oh, and almost half of the population would like to move out of the state (from a survey done a few years ago).

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1 hour ago, jvikings1 said:

 

As someone originally from downstate Illinois, both are correct. It is a very conservative area, but people are trying their hardest to get out of that dumpsterfire state. Very unlikely to see a switch anytime soon, especially with Chicago dominating the state (a Republican MUST win every other county outside Cook if they want a chance to win)

I’m from downstate, where are you from?

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1 hour ago, Patine said:

I must ask - you call a Hell of a lot of things, "dumpsterfires." Where are these, "dumpsterfires," actually NOT - that is, what are they in relative to? There doesn't seem to be a lot left to choose from in your total narrative...

Illinois is a shit hole. Very hard to think of anything positive occurring in the state. Our pension crisis is the elephant in the room that every governor ignores. People are leaving in masses. No industry, and higher education institutions have huge declining enrollments. 

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20 hours ago, Pringles said:

Like Matt Bevin 😄

Bevin was far from corrupt, especially for Kentucky standards. He just couldn't stop himself from saying stupid things in public when attacking his political opponents.

20 hours ago, Patine said:

The worst States are those with just as many corrupt Governors - but none in prison...

The governors who are in prison are because they did things to get themselves caught. Trying to sell a Senate seat is not something even the machine can get away with. Taking bribes to give licenses to those who couldn't get them (and having one of them kill a family in a wreck) is gonna get you caught. But, there is plenty that happens behind the scenes which no ones hears/cares about.

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