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2028 Hypothetical


vcczar

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Assume Biden wins re-election and serves his entire term. Assume generic Dems and generic Reps are polling equally. 

If these are the Democrats heading into the Democratic primary, who do you think wins?

- Kamala Harris

- Gretchen Whitmer

- Raphael Warnock

- Gavin Newsom

- Josh Shapiro

If these are the GOP candidates heading into the GOP primary, who do you think wins?

- Ted Cruz

- Chris Sununu

- Glenn Youngkin

- Rick Scott

- Nikki Haley

- Donald Trump Jr

Of the two nominees that you think get nominated, who wins and why?

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I think these would all be very competitive. 

I think Shapiro or Whitmer barely edge out Newsom. I think Warnock underperforms in early states, despite polling high nationally. Harris performs the worst. I’ll say Shapiro edges out Whitmer and picks her as VP in a double-governor ticket, so they can claim to be Washington outsiders and unattached to Biden-Harris to those that only reluctantly supported Biden over Trump. 

I think GOP makes a strong attempt to shed off MAGA but it’s still there. Sununu is too liberal. Trump Jr never grows support but maintains some Trump loyalists. Haley and Youngkin are both seen as having missed their moment. The race is seen more as between Scott and Cruz, but Scott comes off as more authentic. Scott chooses Huckabee-Sanders as VP. 

I think Trump, who is convicted by 2028, causes too much damage to the GOP. The outsider ticket of Shapiro-Whitmer has more reformist ideas than Scott and Huckabee-Sanders who often find themselves disagreeing on campaign. The Dem ticket assures that PA and MI stay blue. The battle is over WI and NV. GOP spend too many resources to keep TX. GOP does take back AZ and GA. Democrats just have a better map with this ticket, and the two Govs from nearby states appeal to WI. Close election in EV. 

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Newsom vs. Youngkin would be my pick.

I guess a lot on the GOP side depends on how Haley or Sununu plan to stay relevant. Haley holds no office since already 2018. If she loses the '24 primary and doesn't get another noteworthy job, which is even more unlikely in a continued Biden administration like in this scenario, I don't see her being a serious contender almost ten years after leaving her last notable office. More or less the same goes for Sununu who will soon leave office as well.

I guess if Youngkin can hold on to his likeable down to earth, non-radical image, despite being no Never-Trumper he could win against any Democrat in 2028. I also think the GOP would be in a better position with a primary where Trump Sr isn't running and especially after two Biden terms their chances might rise. People want change. 

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I honestly think Warnock can win the nomination. He’s a well spoken, Liberal-but-not-Progressive, and devoutly religious African American. Just from a demographic standpoint that’s a bingo. I think he wins South Carolina convincingly and spins that into wins in the other early primary states before clearing the field after a dominant performance on Super Tuesday.

On the Republican side I think Trump is definitely the favorite, especially if his father is still alive, and puts his weight behind him. I think the GOO is going to remain the Trump Party for a long time, I give it another decade at least.

In the general election I think Warnock would win against Trump comfortably, think Biden2020+North Carolina, and maybe Texas and Iowa in order of likelihood.

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Really depends on the primary schedule for the Dems. If SC is first, Warnock has a real shot at getting national momentum rolling. Otherwise I'm with you that either Whitmer or Shapiro come out as the leader. A Sanders wing could pull a trump and become too powerful for the field, Ayanna Presley over Ro Khanna is my bet. 

MAGA party picks Donald sr again because he clearly would've been cheated in 2024. If somehow that's not the case then from your list Ted Cruz finally breaks through. It'd be a real "I can MAGA better than you" fest though. 

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Provided that Biden wins, my brain tells me that the GOP should go with Youngkin. He comes off as an articulate businessman who can return the Republican Party to Compassionate Conservatism of the 2000's, while not entirely alienating Trump supporters. It doesn't hurt that he is in charge of a purple-leaning-blue state with a decent approval rating. The problem is that I don't think many folks in the Republican Party will think with their brains. Perhaps I am being cynical, but I think we'll have another "vengeance campaign" against the Democrats. All the while the Republican Party turns off more and more people while the Democrats own partisans go unchecked because their Republican counterparts get more coverage.

I believe the Democratic Primary will be up in the air. I think even the most ardent Democrat can agree that Kamala is not not a strong candidate. I think Shapiro or Amy Klobuchar would be a good choice. I think Newsom and Whitmer would tank when some of their more controversial COVID-era policies come to light.

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5 minutes ago, Pius XIII said:

the Democrats own partisans go unchecked because their Republican counterparts get more coverage.

The in-fighting between Democrats is hardly on the scale of GOP in-fighting. I think AOC, Sanders, and etc never go beyond a 5 out of 10 on a hostility meter. Typically, they're just as a 3 out of 10. GOP divide seems to rarely get below a 5, with Trump going full 10/10 often. 

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22 minutes ago, vcczar said:

The in-fighting between Democrats is hardly on the scale of GOP in-fighting. I think AOC, Sanders, and etc never go beyond a 5 out of 10 on a hostility meter. Typically, they're just as a 3 out of 10. GOP divide seems to rarely get below a 5, with Trump going full 10/10 often.

You bring up a good point, but I recall the infighting between the Sanders/Clinton wings of the Democratic Party in 2016. The claims of a rigged primary from the Sander’s crowd seem similar to the Trumpist wing of the GOP today. In my opinion, as the youth vote grows, so too will the Sanders wing. And with that, infighting may increase as well.

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44 minutes ago, Pius XIII said:
1 hour ago, vcczar said:

The in-fighting between Democrats is hardly on the scale of GOP in-fighting. I think AOC, Sanders, and etc never go beyond a 5 out of 10 on a hostility meter. Typically, they're just as a 3 out of 10. GOP divide seems to rarely get below a 5, with Trump going full 10/10 often.

You bring up a good point, but I recall the infighting between the Sanders/Clinton wings of the Democratic Party in 2016. The claims of a rigged primary from the Sander’s crowd seem similar to the Trumpist wing of the GOP today. In my opinion, as the youth vote grows, so too will the Sanders wing. And with that, infighting may increase as well.

It wasn’t that big a thing.  Sanders instantly endorsed Clinton and never cried foul game. I voted Sanders in both the 16 and 20 primaries. Like most Sanders supporters, we never really thought he’s beat Clinton or Biden, we were just happy to see him do as well as he did. No issue voting Clinton and Biden in the general. The Bernie or Bust voters went to Jill Stein, but they’re a small fraction of Sanders supporters. It’s not comparable to the size of Trump supporters who would be Trump or bust. If Sanders had gone 3rd party, he could get 8% at best. Trump would get like 20% possibly 25% running 3rd party. 

It helps that Sanders, AOC, etc all endorse Biden as a responsibility. Sanders has already stated he supports Biden, even over Cornel West. He didn’t an interview on that recently. 

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3 hours ago, vcczar said:

The Bernie or Bust voters went to Jill Stein, but they’re a small fraction of Sanders supporters.

At least 12% of Bernie voters supported Trump in the General, another 12% didn't vote at all, that's a full quarter of Bernie's base being Bernie or Bust without even bringing in third party voters. That's not a majority, but those numbers aren't anything to scoff over either, in 2016 they were a major reason Donald Trump won, (and not for nothing that segment of his base has been the most vocal since 2015, but thankfully their influence outside social media screeds is minimal). As for 2020, there hasn't been a lot of study done, but I've seen polls that showed over 15% of Bernie voters defecting to Trump over Biden, but again those are polls, not actual results.

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7 hours ago, WVProgressive said:

At least 12% of Bernie voters supported Trump in the General, another 12% didn't vote at all, that's a full quarter of Bernie's base being Bernie or Bust without even bringing in third party voters. That's not a majority, but those numbers aren't anything to scoff over either, in 2016 they were a major reason Donald Trump won, (and not for nothing that segment of his base has been the most vocal since 2015, but thankfully their influence outside social media screeds is minimal). As for 2020, there hasn't been a lot of study done, but I've seen polls that showed over 15% of Bernie voters defecting to Trump over Biden, but again those are polls, not actual results.

Do you know what poll this was or have a link? I’m wondering how many of these are first time voters. 

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18 hours ago, vcczar said:

If these are the Democrats heading into the Democratic primary, who do you think wins?

- Kamala Harris

- Gretchen Whitmer

- Raphael Warnock

- Gavin Newsom

- Josh Shapiro

I don't think Warnock runs when his Senate seat would be up, forcing Dems to defend an open seat in a swing state in 2028. As for the rest, I just think it's going to be too difficult to beat Harris. High name ID, the backing of the CBC and other power players that delivered 2020 for Biden, and running against the first black woman to be Vice President puts these other candidates in a discomfiting position. 

18 hours ago, vcczar said:

If these are the GOP candidates heading into the GOP primary, who do you think wins?

- Ted Cruz

- Chris Sununu

- Glenn Youngkin

- Rick Scott

- Nikki Haley

- Donald Trump Jr

Obviously depends on how the next four years go for them but I don't think Trump Jr holds the same loyalty from the maga crowd as his father, and he's positioned himself too squarely within GOP orthodoxy to benefit from the folks who liked Trump for the populism. Cruz and Scott have the benefit of actually holding office and being somewhat relevant, but they're both so personally awkward and unlikable that I have trouble seeing them pull it off. Haley and Youngkin are the most talented candidates but how do they keep themselves relevant enough in 2028 to compete? I'd probably still lean toward Haley but it would not be shocking to see Don Jr or Cruz win either. 

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On 9/6/2023 at 2:27 PM, vcczar said:

Assume Biden wins re-election and serves his entire term. Assume generic Dems and generic Reps are polling equally. 

If these are the Democrats heading into the Democratic primary, who do you think wins?

- Kamala Harris

- Gretchen Whitmer

- Raphael Warnock

- Gavin Newsom

- Josh Shapiro

If these are the GOP candidates heading into the GOP primary, who do you think wins?

- Ted Cruz

- Chris Sununu

- Glenn Youngkin

- Rick Scott

- Nikki Haley

- Donald Trump Jr

Of the two nominees that you think get nominated, who wins and why?

You’re sleeping on my boy Pete! ;c)

I’m not a Kamala or Gavin fan.  I don’t know enough about the rest, but I lean towards Raphael.  
 

For the Republicans, again there’s a few I don’t know we’ll enough, but I’ll say whichever one is Trumpier (not DJT ironically, nor Haley or Cruz).

For the general, I give the win to the Republican since it’s been 8 years.

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On 9/8/2023 at 5:43 PM, MrPotatoTed said:

You’re sleeping on my boy Pete! ;c)

I’m not a Kamala or Gavin fan.  I don’t know enough about the rest, but I lean towards Raphael.  
 

For the Republicans, again there’s a few I don’t know we’ll enough, but I’ll say whichever one is Trumpier (not DJT ironically, nor Haley or Cruz).

For the general, I give the win to the Republican since it’s been 8 years.

I'm surprised he hasn't waned on you a bit. I liked him in the primary but I've been disappointed with his service as Transportation Secretary.

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24 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

I'm surprised he hasn't waned on you a bit. I liked him in the primary but I've been disappointed with his service as Transportation Secretary.

I haven't really been paying attention to him enough to warrant any opinion on his service at this time. As someone that focuses on history, I often let current events just happen until they're no longer current, and then I read about them. 

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42 minutes ago, DakotaHale said:

I'm surprised he hasn't waned on you a bit. I liked him in the primary but I've been disappointed with his service as Transportation Secretary.

He’s gotten a ton of positive press for his actions as Transportation Secretary.  

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